9-4 - and the Ravens!

STH goes 9-4 on the season prognostication.  Let's look at the Ravens match up:

Most people are picking a low scoring game of attrition.  While this will be a violent game, it will have plenty of offense.

When the Steelers are on O

1.  You don't run on the Ravens, unless you are the Giants. The Steelers typically do not run well against the Ravens.  Parker has been stymied by the Ravens.  The Steelers running game will average 3.0-3.4 yards per carry for 18-24 carries.  They just need to keep the Ravens honest on D.  If they get just one big play in the run game, that will be a bonus.

2.  The Steelers typically pass well against the Ravens, when Ben is not getting his clock cleaned.  Protection is huge in this game, but not throwing INTs is even bigger.  The Steelers WRs and TEs can work against the suspect Ravens secondary (Reed excluded).  Homes and Ward should have good games against the starting corners.  Washington should have a good game working against the nickle corner.   The Steelers need to hang points on this D early, and make Flacco come from behind.  Look for Holmes and Washington deep in the 1st half.  After getting a lead, the Steelers need to dink and dunk with some runs mixed in to bleed the clock and keep the D fresh.  If the Steelers surrender 2 sacks or less, then they'll blow this game open.

When the Steelers are on D

1.  McLain is the most dangerous back on the Ravens vs the Steelers.  Rice is out, and McGahee is OK.  The Steelers typically shut down power running games, and they need to against the Ravens.  They need to make the Ravens O one dimensional.  If the Steelers can keep the number of Ravens runs to under 25, they stand a good chance of winning.  If the Ravens get over 25 carries, that means they are controlling the ball and tiring the Steeler D.

2.  Flacco is a very good rookie, and the Steelers cannot afford to think he'll play like one (or like Romo).  He plays very well with Mason, and that will be the challenge for the Steelers. In 3rd and 6-10, Mason will be the #1 option.  The Steelers need to shut him down on 3rd to force the punt.  If the Steelers can get 4 or more sacks, then they will stymie the Ravens D and create key  turnovers.  If they can't pressure Flacco, he'll make some plays.  Look for a new offensive wrinkle from Cam Cameron this game.

Wrap-up

This game comes down to who passes the best.  I'll go with Ben and the Steelers receivers over Flacco and the Ravens receivers.  Look for big plays in the first half, and look for Flacco to turn the ball over in the second half as he tries to play catch-up.

In the preseason prognostication I said this:

It seems the Ravens are therapeutic for the Steelers.  I think Flacco will be starting by this time in the season, and they abuse the rookie.  Steelers 34-10 with a 10-4 record.

 

The Ravens are better than expected at this point.  I still think the Steelers win this going away:  27-13 Steelers.

STH happily is 8-4

Woo hoo!!  Big, dominating win over the Patsies.  Gotta love it!

Looking forward to the Cowboys at Heinz Field:

Steelers with the ball

The Dallas 3-4 is an interesting thing.  The DL is not very big, especially at the NT position.  Ratliff is 6-4, 305.  This is a stark contrast to guys like Hampton, Wilfork, Jenkins, Shaun Rogers, Jamal Williams...you get it...BIG NTs in the AFC.  All of these guys are 330+.  The interior OL should feel like it is getting a break this week.

The Steelers offense will need to take advantage of a couple of things:  a smaller middle of the defense, average ILBs and a weak secondary.

The running game should be effective up the middle and between the G/T gap.  I think Hartwig and Kemo can get plenty of push straight off of the ball to be effective.  Also, pulling the opposite G into the G/T gap should create numbers, assuming the pulling side T can get a good backside seal.  Colon and Starks are good run blockers, so this plays to the Steelers pretty well.

Although the Cowboys get Pacman back for this game, I think the Dallas secondary is challenged.  Newman has shown that he can have a bad game.  Henry is nothing special.  Pacman does help when the Steelers go the 3WR set, as Washington will not be able to abuse the nickel corner.  The Dallas safeties are nothing special, even when "Roy Weeams" was not injured.  The Dallas ILBs are average in coverage.  The combination of Ward, Holmes, Miller, Washington, Spaeth and Moore should present plenty of opportunities in the passing game, assuming Ben has protection.

Ware has the lion's share of sacks for the Cowboys, so Parker, Moore and Davis will need to help Starks with the chip.  The rest of the sacks are sprinkled pretty evenly among the other Dallas D players.  The OL has to keep Ratliff from applying pressure up the middle, and has to pick up the blitz.

If the OL can run block like they did against the Pats, and can provide 3-4 seconds for Ben to throw, then the Steelers O should put up 24-28 points.

Dallas with the ball

Romo is a good QB.  However, he has also shown the ability for the real bone-headed play.  With the Dallas running game completely shut down, Dallas will have to pass to move the ball.  They have the weapons in T.O., Roy Williams, Crayton and Witten.

Dallas will try to run in the 1st half, with little results.  Even if Barber is healthy, he would not be effective.  This D is geared to stopping power backs.  No dice for Dallas.

When passing, I think the Steelers D has the advantage.  Tomlin's influence has created better coverage in Lebeau's defense.  With the addition of Timmons in the nickel, the middle of the defense has a LOT more speed to negate guys like Witten.  Harrison will wreak his typical havoc against Adams.  Woodley vs. Columbo goes to Woodley.  With Polamalu going off and Clark playing solid, there is very little room to pass the ball, and very little time to read the defense.  The one concern to watch is Romo's scrambling ablity, but that can't be a offensive game plan.  Romo and T.O. will be frustrated by the 2nd quarter, and will make mistakes.

Look for Dallas to put up 10-14 points.

Pre-season progostication was Steelers 20-13.  Sounds close, but I think the Steelers will put up more than 20.

Patriot Updates

There are some late developments that will affect the game:

Steelers

1.  Looks like Parker will suit up.  Hopefully, he's effective with his bum knee.

2.  Townsend will play.  Hopefully his hammy holds up.

3.  BMac will probably play.  He's listed as questionable, but has practiced for two weeks.  This game is too big for him to sit.  He'll probably wear a protective device on his forearm, but look for him to be fine.

Patriots

1.  Ty Warren's groin has kept him from practicing.  If he plays...well...pulled groins are nasty to walk on, much less play NT.

2.  Seymour has a bum knee.  I think Seymour will play on the knee, and there should not be a big fall off.

3.  Ellis Hobbs has a bum shoulder.  For a CB, this is not too big a deal (not like a leg injury).  He'll play and will be fine.

Go Steelers!!!

Updates...

Since the last post, the Steelers have beaten both the Chargers and the Bengals.  STH goes to 8-3 in the prognostication department, picking both wins over the Bengals and Chargers.

On to the Patriots:

Steelers' Offense:

1.  Willie is out, and Marvel is still out.

2.  Ben has played a lot better in the past two games.

What to look for:

1.  Passing Game - The Patriots have a very good D-line, slow but experienced LBs and an average secondary.  The Steelers need to play to this weakness.  The Steelers need to abuse the LBs in coverage early with Miller, Spaeth, Davis and Moore.  Look for a lot of underneath routes from the TE/RBs with WR deep routes to clear out the CBs and safeties.  I think NE will play a lot of cover 2, and will force Ben to beat them on the road with good reads.  

If the underneath stuff hurts NE enough, Bill will be forced to pull a SS/FS robber to make things more difficult in the short game.  This is when a deep pass has to hurt the Pats with either a completion or a penalty.  I like Nate Washington's chances for a big play this week.

2.  Running Game - The running game needs to be unpredictable.  Unfortunately, it usually is not.  This is Arians' main problem.  He can't deceive anyone with his play calling.  There are two options:  pull Kemo right, or run left.  That is all Arians calls.  Hopefully, he makes some good calls mixing up the inside/outside runs.  The running game does not need to go hog wild.  If it produces 100 yards, that is just gravy.  A 80-90 yard effort will be enough balance for a win.

Steelers' Defense

1.  Keisel is out.

2.  Townsend is out.

3.  BMac is questionable.

1.  Pass D - this will be the most important phase of the game.  NE traditionally puts in Moss/Welker/Gaffney and spreads the defense.  This makes the Steelers come out of the 3-4 into a nickel alignment.  The Steelers have run a 2 DL, 4 LB and 5 DB formation as a nickel D.  Usually, this involved Keisel and Smith at the DL positions.  Without Keisel, look for a rotation of Eason, Roye, Kirchke and Hoke.

Timmons must be used in pass D.  Foote needs to spell Timmons, and not cover.  If Welker is in the slot, I'd put Timmons on him and jam him at the line of scrimmage.  Welker is a tough guy, but is (relatively) small.  I think he can beat a jam from Gay or Bryant, so putting Timmons on him takes advantage of his biggest weakness.  Taylor will obviously cover Moss with help over the top from Clark.  If the Steelers can take away Moss and Welker, they can win this game...big task though!!  Let's see what Lebeau comes up with.

The Pats will game plan to minimize sacks against this D.  Look for a lot of 3-5 step drops from Cassel, with quick releases to minimize pressure.  Look for a lot of screens, with some in the middle.  This is why negating Welker is so important.  If the Steelers can delay the release with good coverage, they have a better chance of getting to Cassel.  If the Steelers get 3 sacks, that is a good sign that the coverage is working.

2.  Run Defense - The Steelers will need to stop the run primarily from a nickel formation.  The Patriots will rarely line up and challenge the best run D in the league head on.  They are too smart for that.  They will spread the defense and look for creases.  Look for a lot of draws and delays if the DL does not control the middle of the pocket.  Look for Cassel to gain yards on scrambles if the DL does not control the middle of the pocket.

Summary:

This is a tough game schematically for the Steelers.  Belichick knows how to attack the base 3-4, and has the weapons to do damage in a 3-4 WR set.  The offense will need to put up more than 24 points to win, and I think they will struggle with that.

Pre-season Pick:  Pats 27-20.

Pick:  Sadly, I pick the Patriots 24-21 over the Steelers.

Hope I'm wrong!!  =)

I've been off a few weeks...

Due to work travel, I've been negligent in posting.  Time to catch up.

STH goes 6-3 on the season picking Steelers games.  STH hit on the Redskins game, but missed on the Colts game.

The Colts game made me sick...'nuff said.  Definitely a chance for the Steelers to separate from the pack, but now they are in the muddled 6-3 group.

Looking forward to San Diego, here are the keys to the game:

Steelers O:

1.  The interior of the line needs to neutralize Jamal Williams.  They do not need to push him off point, but they need to make sure he is not getting penetration or sliding down the line.  This is up to Hartwig, Kemo and Stapleton.  Kemo struggled a bit against the smaller and quicker Colts D line.  Hopefully, he can get a piece of Williams when needed.

2.  When running, use a FB/TE and get numbers at the point of attack.  Against a 3-4 defense, the best place to run (generally) is against the OLB/DE bubble.  Stretch and counter plays work well for this.  A FB can pick up an ILB, and a pulling guard/center can pick off an OLB.  If the Steelers can get a RB on a safety, then there are a lot of opportunities for big plays in the running game.

3.  Get a deep hit early.  By deep, I mean 30+ yards.  The Chargers D has struggled this year, and you want to get them thinking negative early.  This opens up the running game and the underneath routes.  This is important for those blitz adjustments.

Offense Summary:  The Steelers need to pull the San Diego D back, and then establish the run.  This will open up the play action passing game, and also the underneath routes.  I think the Steelers have the edge over the SD defense, especially in 3WR sets.  The Steelers need to be physical when running out of 2TE and I-based sets.

Steelers D:

1.  Ike Taylor needs to shadow Malcolm Floyd.  Floyd is a huge mismatch against the other corners.  Gates needs to draw coverage from Woodley, Timmons or Polamalu, depending on which side of the D is weak or strong.  Foote and Farrior have no business covering Gates, as they will be abused.  They do not have the speed.  Harrison and/or Timmons and/or Woodley should rush the passer on every pass down.  They need to bring 5 on pass rush every time, so look for the Steelers to play a lot of Cover 1.

2.  Pressure Rivers.  They have to bring 5 on pass rush to help out Gay and Fernando Bryant.  Those two should be playing a lot of zone on the outside or slot.

3.  How to handle LT?  The Steelers D should be able to shut down the run, and SD has struggled running the ball so far.  In the passing game, is it incumbent to Timmons or Polamalu to hold LT in check on the underneath routes.  Timmons and Polamalu will play huge roles in the passing game with LT and Gates.  Farrior should be allowed to roam the short/intermediate middle zone for clean up.

Defense Summary:  Pressure the passer with 5 and aggressively take away his best two options:  Gates and Floyd.  The pressure will force LT to either pass block or run short routes.  Then it becomes necessary to limit RAC yards and tackle well.

Pick:  I think Ben bounces back with a good performance, and the D stifles the Chargers.  Steelers  34-17.

AFC North Watch:  The Steelers can get a two game lead on the Ravens by winning this week after watching the Giants beat the Ravens.  The other two teams don't matter.

Giants re-cap and Redskins preview

STH goes 5-2 on the year with the Steeler's loss to the G-men.  No shame in losing to the Giants, but I think the Steelers should have won that game.  Reasons the Steelers lost:

1.  Penalties - especially on the drive that got to the Giants 35...then went backwards to the Steelers 35.  On this drive, the Steelers lost a TD at worst, and 3 points at best.

2.  Poor play from Ben.  I hate to say it, but at least two of the sacks were a result of Ben holding the ball way too long.  Eli got rid of the ball...Ben ate it.

3.  Poor execution in the 4Q.  No first downs...no points...no nothing.

The Steelers did not lose because of the bad snap.  That play was pretty insignificant, except for highlight reels.

Keys to the Redskins game:

Offense

1.  Pass more like the Steelers do against the Ravens.  The Redskins have the 5th ranked rushing defense.  This does not mean the Steelers should abandon the run, but passing will be easier than running.  The Redskins have the 11th ranked pass defense, but they will be missing two starters from the secondary.  Also, the Redskins only have 10 sacks this year, so Ben should be less pressured than against the Giants.

2.  Run outside.  Fletcher is a good MLB, so getting to the edges with either Parker or Moore should create opportunities for big chunks of yards.  Up the middle is not a good game plan.

Defense

1.  Shut down Clinton Portis.  If the Steelers can hold Portis to less than 70 yards, then the Steelers should win.

2.  Abuse the LT Heyer.  I like Silverback against Heyer or a RB.  If the Steelers DL can slant to get Keisel on Heyer or the LG, then Harrison should pop free a lot. The Redskins are giving up an average of 2 sacks per game.  Silverback will get at least 2.

3.  Woodley should get 1 sack.

4.  The pressure should make Campbell force to ball or fumble the ball.  Campbell has been really good this year with ball security.  This is a result of a good running game and good decisions.  However, the Steelers D can take away both, and I do not see the Redskins winning the one-on-one matchups.

The preseason pick had this as a trap game after a big win over the Giants.  However...AHEM...that is not necessarily the case now.  So, I think the Steelers come out and get a win.  Steelers 17-10.

2009 Free Agents

OK...so it is a little early to start looking at free agency, but it is a fun diversion after a loss.  Looking forward to players that would do the Steelers a lot of good:

1.  Chris Snee - RG, NYG  Signing Snee would let the Steelers part ways with Simmons, who has been pretty mediocre lately.  Immediate upgrade in run and interior pass blocking.  This would also limit any downside from Simmons not recovering well from his achilles injury.  If Kemoeatu re-signs, then the guard position is a definite strength.

2.  Dunta Robinson - CB, Texans.  If the Steelers can re-sign McFadden and get Robinson, then they will have a great nickel package.  This gives the Steelers depth and experience at CB.

3.  A kick returner - ANY kick returner

Giants!!

Will the Steelers beat the Giants?  Could...but the offense really needs to game plan for the pass rush.

Keys to Victory:

Offense

1.  Run the ball, especially on second down.  The Patriots were a pass happy team, and look where that got them.  The Steelers O needs to punish the Giants D to slow down the pass rush.

2.  Be unpredictable on 1st down.  Runs, passes, screens...1st down needs to get about 4-6 yards to make second down a good running down.

3.  Have a good plan to beat the blitz.  This is where getting whupped by the Eagles D pays dividends.  If the Steelers can limit the Giants to 2 sacks, they have a good chance to win.

4.  Score at least 21 points.  I think if the Steelers put up 21, they win.

Defense

1.  Stuff Jacobs, and eliminate the cutbacks for the smaller and quicker RBs.  This will make the Giants O one dimensional.  The D needs to penetrate against Jacobs, and play Bradshaw like they played the Jags.

2.  Rattle Eli.  I think the Steeler LB'ers will do a good job of making Eli move and dance.

3.  Catch the ball.  Eli will provide opportunities for INTs and forced fumbles.  The Steelers need to capitalize and get the turnovers when they are there.

4.  Shut down Plax in the red zone.  This will force FGs rather than TDs.

Prediction:  24-20 Steelers...but this will be a hard game...

Last Week's Review

Last week, STH went to 4-2 on the season picking games.  Also, the sack prediction was pretty close.  Good game for the Steelers against the Bungles...but what is new?

The Steelers took a bye, and so did I

But I'm back...

What a win over Jax!!  Everything clicked as the offensive game plan used: 

1.  Quick, short passes effectively

2.  Runs out of 3 and 4 WR sets

3.  The RB on circle and flare routes

The D game plan shut down the running game and created pressure on 3rd and longs.  The only downer was the number of converted 3rd and longs...need to get that fixed.

STH falls to 3-2 on the season, but I'm glad the Steelers won.  I'll take that every week if I can.  =)  Note that STH has accurately predicted the record to this point, but missed on which game was a loss.

Looking forward to the Bungles:

1.  The Bengals have had issues in pass protection this year.  Expect a thorough ravishing of Fitzpatrick by Harrison and Woodley.  I think Timmons will pick up another sack this week also.  Pre-game prediction:  5 sacks.

2.  The Bengals have no running game.  This puts a lot of pressure on the QB.  Oooops...

3.  The Steelers should be able to run the ball easily, and pass even easier.  Look for a big day from Holmes.  I think he'll have 5+ catches for over 100 yds and  2TDs.

Pre-season pick was 27-17 Steelers.  However, I think this will be a little more of a route.  31-6...or something like that.

Oh yeah...

STH is 3-1 on the season.

Go Steelers!

Ravens Review and Jags Pre-game

A Win is a Win

The Ravens played a tough game on defense.  Thankfully, Flacco was limiting the play calling of the Ravens, who played it close to the vest.  The Baltimore tackles and RBs struggles against Harrison and Woodley, which PGH had hoped would happen.  Losing Mendenhall and Davis hurts, but it also let Moore show what he can do.  I think as the season wears on, this is a good thing.  This will let Ben gain trust in a check down option, which will be important in countering the pass rush.

The Jags are another physical team, but a bit less so after losing Stroud to Buffalo.  The Jags pass rush is not producing as much as hoped.  The offense still relies on running the ball with an occasional play from Garrard.

The short week shouldn't matter much as far as game planning goes.  The Steelers know the Jags, and visa versa.  I hope the Steelers get a lot of rest this week.

Steeler's offense:

1.  Needs to keep the Jag's D off balance with short, efficient passes on 1st and 2nd down.

2.  When they run, the oline has to let the FB get to a LB'er.  If the O-line can win one-on-one battles, the running game will be effective.  Not dominating, but effective enough to make the Jags think about it.  Getting 3-4 yards per carry is probably all we can expect without Parker or Mendenhall.  

3.  Need to victimize the short-handed Jax secondary.  Maybe test it early by going deep if they get a 2nd and short.

4.  Keep the inside pressure down when passing.  This is one of the things that killed the Steelers last year.

5.  Need to jump out to an early lead.  The Jax offense is not a big play threat, except for MJD.  Get a lead early and minimize the Jax running game, and let Silverback/Woodley wreak havoc.

Key match-ups:  Hartings/Stapelton/Kemo vs the DTs.

Steeler's defense:

1.  Taylor loves to cut back, so no over-pursuit.  The D-line and LB'ers need to "string-out" outside runs by Taylor rather than penetrate.

2.  Polamalu should serve as the disruptive penetrator in run D.

3.  Hit Garrard hard early.  He has not been as mistake free with the ball as he was in 2007.  He will probably offer up a pick or two - that's for you Ike.

Key match-ups:  Barnes/Pashos vs. Silverback/Woodley

Wrap-up

This will be a very difficult game to win for the Steelers.  Jax plays very physical, and it looks like the OGs have adjusted from being second string to starting.  When they were both in the AFC Central, Jax gave the Steelers fits.

The pre-season pick was 28-20 Jags.  It might be a bit loser (24-20), but I still think the Jags win.  However, I'd love it if the Steelers were able to pull one out.

Week Three Ouchie

Ow...that one stung.  The Steelers O got dominated, but at least the D played well.  When the D gives up only 13 points, the Steelers should win.  The Offense has to score at least two touchdowns.  Oh well...

STH is now 2-1.

Baltimore Game Keys:

Steelers O:  The Steelers O needs to counter the blitz early in the game.  Obviously, the Ravens are going to throw every blitz in the package at the Steelers O.  Make them pay.  Hot reads, moving the pocket, RB flares and short TE patterns should be called in the first quarter.  Hopefully, Ben can audible out of them if they look bad at the line of scrimmage.  As far as running the ball, the Steelers will not have Willie Parker.  Parker has struggled against the Ravens who hasn't?), so we'll get to see what Mendenhall has.  Mendenhall posting positive yards is key to keeping the Ravens D honest.

Key Matchup:  Suggs vs Simmons/Colon (this could get ugly)

Steelers D:  Confuse Flacco.  This should lead to turnovers and short fields for the offense.  Unfortunately, until the O gets confident again, the D will need to carry this team.  The deep passing game should not be a huge concern.  Cover 1 should be OK for most of the game as long as pressure gets to Flacco.  I think Polamalu will have a monster game.  The Ravens O does not really scare me.  As long as there is no 3-man rush, they'll get pressure.  Hoke will do fine in Hampton's absence.

Key Matchup:  Tackles vs OLB (Hopefully, this gets ugly)

Pre-season Prediction:  34-7 Steelers.  Flacco has exceeded expecations, but the Steelers still win...Steelers 16-10.

Steelers beat Brownies

I live in NE Ohio...and the silence is deafening.  The loudmouthed, ignorant Browns fans have been stifled and shut up.  Ahhhh...peace at last.

STH is 2-0 on the season.  However, the 10-6 score was way off my prediction mark.  Think the weather had anything to do with it?  =)  On to the Eagles:

1.  The Steelers have stymied McNabb before.  Pressure and keeping contain on McNabb will be critical to disrupting the Eagles passing offense.

2.  Westbrook is dangerous.  His ability our of the backfield and his cut-back running can hurt hte Steelers.  Cut back, slashing type runners can give the Steelers problems if they do not maintain "gap integrity".  Discipline is key to containing Westbrook.  If the Steelers play the nickel, Timmons will get more time.  This bodes well for countering Westbrooks speed and quickness.

3.  The coverage teams need to contain the rookie, DeSean Jackson.  So far, they have contained a couple of the best return men in Andre Davis and Josh Cribbs.  They certainly do not get a break this week.  Jackson is not that big (~170 lbs.), so maybe they can rock him and get him off of the offensive side of the ball.

4.  The Steelers need to have a physical running game against the undersized Eagles front 7.  I hope we see a good dose of Mendenhall to complement Parker.  Well timed play action pass plays, screens and misdirection plays will be key to keeping the aggressive, blitzing Eagles D off balance.

My original pick was 24-10 Steelers...and I'll stick with it.  It is a crap shoot anyway...

Week 1 Wrap-up and Week 2 Predictions

Well...the Texans were the Texans.  I had it 31-17, so I was pretty close.

1-0 so far for game picks.

Looking forward to the Browns, here is what will happen:

1.  Look for a lot of pressure from Harrison and Woodley again.  Harrison will only have 1 sack, because Thomas is a good LT.  Woodley will go off though with 2 sacks and a lot of pressures.

2.  Ben will pass for over 300 yards.  The Cleveland secondary is pitiful, and so is the pass rush.  This leaves the secondary is a bad position, and Ben will expose it.

3.  Score - I still think 27-24 is plausible.  But after the week 1 showings, I'm more inclined to have the Steelers win by 10+.

Prognostication

It is almost time to start the regular season, so I'll look at the schedule and make guesses about how the Steelers will finish.  Here we go:

Houston at Heinz Field

The defense dominates and the offense moves the ball well.  I think Mario might cause some problems, unless the OL really steps up.  Steelers  31-17.

1-0

Cleveland away

This will be a tough game as the Brownies will be jacked up for a nationally televised game.  Ben still beats them because the Brown's secondary stinks.  Steelers  27-24

2-0

Battle of PA away

McNabb will struggle as the Steelers pass D excels, especially Timmons.  Steelers 24-10

3-0

Baltimore at Heinz Field

No offense.  An aging defense...no competition again.  Steelers 34-7

4-0

At Jax

Hmmm...this one scares me.  I think this is the first loss of the season.  Jax seems to have the Steelers number.  Jaguars 28-20

4-1

Bye week...

At Cinci

The Bengals offense will b OK, but the D is horrific.  The Steelers will be dominant in this game.   Steelers  27-17, but not as close as the score.

5-1

Giants at Heinz Field

The Giants D-line will get to Ben, but he will make enough plays to win this one.  One thing to watch - the return of Plax.  Steelers  21-13

6-1

At Washington

This feels like a trap game, and it becomes one.  The Steelers should win this one, but they fall short in D.C.  Skins  19-17

6-2

Colts at Heinz Field

The Colts certainly can't write off the Steelers, as they did in the 2005 playoffs.  The Steelers win a close one at home and punish Manning.  Steelers  28-27

7-2

Chargers at Heinz Field

The Chargers have two players that play to the Steelers' weakness - LT and Gates.  The Chargers beat the Steelers.  Chargers  30-17.

7-3

Bengals at Heinz Field

Time to get healthy after the SD beating.  Steelers  37-14.

8-3

At The Razor

NE sucks, but they are so good.  The Steelers fall short.  27-20.

8-4

Cowboys at Heinz Field

I think that the D will get to Romo and force mistakes.  The Steelers steal one at home.  Steelers 20-13.

9-4

At Baltimore

It seems the Ravens are therapeutic for the Steelers.  I think Flacco will be starting by this time in the season, and they abuse the rookie.  Steelers 34-10.

10-4

At Tennessee

The Steelers struggle against the former Oilers.  The Titans play them close and pull one out at home.  Titans 24-21.

10-5

Cleveland visits Heinz Field

Hopefully, this game still matters.  I'd hate to listen to the Browns fans chirping about beating the Steelers' scrubs.  Steelers  24-17.

11-5

And that kids - puts them in the playoffs.  I don't think they'll get a first round bye, but that is probably a good thing.  That will keep them sharp.

7 Days To Camp

Only 7 more days and the Steelers start camp.  Here are the camp battles that will affect the team's roster going forward:

CB opposite Ike

Bryant McFadden is looking to become the starter this year.  He'll have to bump Deshea Townsend to the nickel back if he wants to do that.  McFadden had two bum ankles last year, and that slowed his development.  Maybe this is the year for him?

Center

OK - Mahan was miserable at center last year.  I think Hartwig should be an upgrade, but he still needs to win the spot.  The interior of the OL was bad last year, and Hartwig winning the spot could help it become stable (probably not stellar though).

Offensive Guard

With Faneca leaving, there seem to be two bodies competing for the LG spot - Kemoeatu and Colon.  Colon's short arms seem to make him more suited to guard, and he gave up a lot of sacks at RT last year.  The RG position is not so certain either.  Simmons did not play very well last year.  Maybe it was his diabetes?  Dunno...but whoever does not win the LG battle might just start at RG.

MLB

Don't look now Foote, but Timmons is slated to play in the middle.  This should be an interesting battle between the savvy vet and a talented young player.  I think both will get some playing time, but who wins the starting spot is a curious thing.

3rd WR

Nate Washington has turned into a serviceable 3rd WR.  Not stellar, but he seems to have reduced his drops.  Having Sweed compete for time with Nate will improve both of the WRs.  The 4WR sets should be quite dangerous this year.

My prediction - BMac starts, The OL is Smith-Colon-Hartwig-Kemo-Starks, Foote starts and Timmons plays mostly passing downs, and Sweed is the 3rd WR.

Go Steelers!

Draft Results

Offense:

I think getting Mahan out of center was the biggest thing that could help the OL.  Hartwig will help immensely.  Given the Hartwig addition, the primary offensive needs entering the draft were (in no particular order):

1.  RB depth - the running game stopped after losing FWP

2.  WR depth - Ward, Holmes, Washington...and...and...oh...no one.

3.  OL depth

The Steelers got all of these covered with Mendenhall, Sweed and Hills.  Hills may project to guard, but he looks be a good tackle in the future.  It is amazing that Sweed lasted until the Steeler's second round pick.

Offensive draft grade:  A

Defense

Booger came into the Steelers and could not pass a physical.  Other than some ST players, the D has not had any FA activity.  So, the pre-draft needs are (in order):

1.  DL depth - when Smith went down, the run D suffered.  we need a young body who can play the 3-4 DE position if Keisel or Smith gets injured

2.  CB depth - someone who can start in a few years when Townsend finally retires or moves to safety

3.  MLB - Farrior is aging and Foote is decent, but not stellar.

Some people clamor about safety, but I think the FS position will be fine.

The LB position was the defensive position to get addressed most, partially because the best 3-4 DE in each round was gone before the Steelers picked.  Davis (UCLA) will most likely play outside as a pass rusher, so maybe Harrison is moving inside eventually?  Humpal is a ST pick, and ILB back-up.  Mundy is a safety backup and ST contributor.

The best D in the league last year got no help on the DL in depth.  Maybe Booger gets healthy and they sign him.  That will help.

Defensive Draft Grade:  C+

Overall grade:  B+

OL starting line-up:  Smith - Kemo - Hartwig - Colon - Starks

LB starting line-up:  Woodly - Foote - Farrior - Harrison

Draft and OL

Given that Fancea is leaving and Max Starks is most likely leaving, here's where I'd like to see the draft go for the Steelers:

Rnd 1 - OT

The Steelers should be able to get either Jeff OTah, Chris Williams or Gosder Cherilius

Rnd 2 - Center

I really like Mike Pollack here, as Mahan had problems at center in 2007.  Pollack has the size (as opposed to Steve Justice) and speed to pull also.  This would let Mahan compete for a guard position or be a backup at center and guard.

Rnd 3 - RB

Depends who falls.  If Matt Forte is available, he'd be a good compliment to FWP.  Mike Hart would be a good choice too...

Rnd 4 - Paul Hubbard.  At 6-4 and 215 he is a big target for Ben.  Runs a decent 4.43 40 too.

Who knows after this...maybe a backup OLB/ILB that can help on ST.  The Steelers definitely need a return specialist, so maybe a fast sub-4.40 CB will be taken.

The DL will need help in 2009 draft...

Malcolm

Malcolm Jenkins is staying at Ohio State for his senior year.  He was projected to go in the top 10-15 players selected in the 2008 draft.  This will change the draft boards, and it will be interesting to see where the team that need a shut down corner go...

Looking Forward

Obviously, the Steelers have to improve in several areas to just remain competitive, much less win the AFC North again in 2008. There are two real "big picture" type things that needs to be addressed:

1. Offensive identity - who are the Steelers on offense? A power running team? A finesse offense? Or some where in between? Without a FB like Krieder, it really becomes hard to over-power opposing defenses in the hole.
2. As a corollary to #1, how will the OL look?

Offensive Identity
If the Steelers can get a good slot reciever/KR guy, they can really open up this offense. A 3WR formation with Miller and FWP really makes defenses pick their poison. Do you go nickle to stop the pass, or do you stay in the base-D to play FWP and hope you can stop the pass?

A good slot reciever will take a lot of coverage from Ward and Holmes. Maybe they draft a big WR to play the X or Z and put Ward in the Y on 3 WR sets? Maybe Nate Washington develops enough to be reliable and dangerous, instead of just dangerous. Whatever happens, I think Steeler fans will say good bye to the "power offense" in which Bettis excelled.

Of course, Tomlin added a couple REALLY big OL-men to the roster at the end of the season, so maybe he's going big, and I'm totally off base.

OL
The o-line has more than a few departures in FA this year. The big and obvious one is Faneca, but Starks could hurt too. I think the Steelers would do good if they re-signed Starks. I love Faneca, but he will begine to decline in a few years. The line could look like this: Smith - TBD - Simmons - Colon -Starks. The LG position could be decided in camp between Chris Kemoeatu, a FA or a draft selection. Mahan has to be pulled from the center position, as he gets dominated and the play, run or pass, gets blown up. The 1st and 2nd draft picks should be OL selections. There are no centers in the draft generally projectd earlier than the 3 round, so the picks will be OT/OG. BTW, some folks are fond of suggesting Starks at OG. He's WAAAY to tall to play guard. He'll fill all of the throwing lanes...

The draft will really tell which direction this team is going. I think Tomlin has a long term plan, and we'll begin to see it after the draft.

Random Thoughts...
Timmons. Interesting dude...and not because he knocked Ricky out of the Miami mud wretling match. He is built like a prototypical Cover-2 MLB (see Derrick Brooks). He's not big for a MLB (see Levon Kirkland), and has a lot of speed. With Woodley taking over Haggan's spot, where does Timmons go in a base 3-4? If he takes either Foote's of Farrior's spot, then I think we'll see Timmons lining up man over the opposing TE in passing plays, as he has the speed to cover them. This will free up Polamalu to range in the robber role. Or, he can be used as the MLB is used in a Tampa-2 - playing deep middle - and doing it out of a base 3-4. Hopefully, Timmons does not get lost in the trash during the running game and can help stop the run. You can count on him seeing a lot of time in 2008 in the nickle and dime packages, too. He seems to have a good nose for the ball. Hope he stays healthy!

More Random Thoughts on LBs
I think a Woodley - Farrior - Timmons - Harrison LB corp is quite formidable and full of play makers! Also helps the secondary when the QB is running for his life...

Thoughts on DL
Hampton did not seem dominant inside this year. Perhaps he (gasp!) needs to trim down a bit. Smith is a stud, but will not last too many more years. Other than those two, we need help in quality and depth on DL. Hopefully, this is addressed in FA.

Next post - 2008 draft specifics - especially as juniors declare or stay in school.