Thursday, November 13, 2008

I've been off a few weeks...

Due to work travel, I've been negligent in posting.  Time to catch up.

STH goes 6-3 on the season picking Steelers games.  STH hit on the Redskins game, but missed on the Colts game.

The Colts game made me sick...'nuff said.  Definitely a chance for the Steelers to separate from the pack, but now they are in the muddled 6-3 group.

Looking forward to San Diego, here are the keys to the game:

Steelers O:
1.  The interior of the line needs to neutralize Jamal Williams.  They do not need to push him off point, but they need to make sure he is not getting penetration or sliding down the line.  This is up to Hartwig, Kemo and Stapleton.  Kemo struggled a bit against the smaller and quicker Colts D line.  Hopefully, he can get a piece of Williams when needed.
2.  When running, use a FB/TE and get numbers at the point of attack.  Against a 3-4 defense, the best place to run (generally) is against the OLB/DE bubble.  Stretch and counter plays work well for this.  A FB can pick up an ILB, and a pulling guard/center can pick off an OLB.  If the Steelers can get a RB on a safety, then there are a lot of opportunities for big plays in the running game.
3.  Get a deep hit early.  By deep, I mean 30+ yards.  The Chargers D has struggled this year, and you want to get them thinking negative early.  This opens up the running game and the underneath routes.  This is important for those blitz adjustments.

Offense Summary:  The Steelers need to pull the San Diego D back, and then establish the run.  This will open up the play action passing game, and also the underneath routes.  I think the Steelers have the edge over the SD defense, especially in 3WR sets.  The Steelers need to be physical when running out of 2TE and I-based sets.

Steelers D:
1.  Ike Taylor needs to shadow Malcolm Floyd.  Floyd is a huge mismatch against the other corners.  Gates needs to draw coverage from Woodley, Timmons or Polamalu, depending on which side of the D is weak or strong.  Foote and Farrior have no business covering Gates, as they will be abused.  They do not have the speed.  Harrison and/or Timmons and/or Woodley should rush the passer on every pass down.  They need to bring 5 on pass rush every time, so look for the Steelers to play a lot of Cover 1.
2.  Pressure Rivers.  They have to bring 5 on pass rush to help out Gay and Fernando Bryant.  Those two should be playing a lot of zone on the outside or slot.
3.  How to handle LT?  The Steelers D should be able to shut down the run, and SD has struggled running the ball so far.  In the passing game, is it incumbent to Timmons or Polamalu to hold LT in check on the underneath routes.  Timmons and Polamalu will play huge roles in the passing game with LT and Gates.  Farrior should be allowed to roam the short/intermediate middle zone for clean up.

Defense Summary:  Pressure the passer with 5 and aggressively take away his best two options:  Gates and Floyd.  The pressure will force LT to either pass block or run short routes.  Then it becomes necessary to limit RAC yards and tackle well.

Pick:  I think Ben bounces back with a good performance, and the D stifles the Chargers.  Steelers  34-17.

AFC North Watch:  The Steelers can get a two game lead on the Ravens by winning this week after watching the Giants beat the Ravens.  The other two teams don't matter.

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