Tuesday, January 27, 2009

5 Ain't Enough

Hey guys - check out Lance's podcast titled "5 Ain't Enough".  I enjoy his show twice a week, as do many over at www.postgameheroes.com.  He always has good analysis and grades.


Go Steelers!!

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Spreading Out the Steelers Defense

OK...here it comes - the recipe for beating the Steelers.  Go 3WR and spread them out.  At least, this is what some analysts, like Charlie Casserly, are saying.  There is a reason for this.  The Patriots have used this scheme in 2003 and 2004 to defeat the Steelers pretty handily.  However, it has not worked very well recently, and here is why:

1.  The Steeler pass rush is much improved this season with Harrison/Woodley/Timmons.  It used to be that the Steelers were a blitzing defense (Blitzburgh), especially in the 90's.  This squad can get pressure with only 4 rushers, leaving 7 to cover.  They come from different angles, but most of the time (75%) Lebeau sends 4. We'll talk about coverage schemes later...this point is about pressure with 4.  The pressure usually requires a RB or TE to help out blocking.  So, this leaves 4 guys in the pattern against 7 defenders.  When a RB or TE stays in to block, this frees up a defender to free lance or to double.  This caused Polamalu's big INT vs the Ravens.  He was man up against Heap, who stayed in to block.  This freed up Troy to read Flacco, and get the pick 6.

2.  The Steelers corners are much better, particularly the depth.  Taylor can cover the best WRs in man coverage.  Townsend can take the number two, and McFadden can cover the 3rd WR.  This leaves Gay for dime alignments.  Usually, the Steelers had one good corner, one average corner, and one that looked like burnt toast.  Not this squad - they have the depth to hang.

3.  The Steelers most often use a 2-4-5 set to counter 3WR sets. The Steelers have two guys that really make a big difference in coverage in this alignment:  Polamalu and Timmons.  Timmons has the speed to chase down RBs and WRs, or to come on the pass rush.  We all know what Troy does.  These two have the speed to erase coverage mistakes.

4.  Tomlin has brought a lot of cover 2 to the defensive schemes, and his experience as a D-back coach has paid dividends.  Lebeau still has the overloads and zone blitz schemes, but now they are backed with DBs playing lights-out cover 2 or cover 3.

Notice that the Patriots did not have much success passing with spreading the Steelers out (they had a couple big draws though).  No team has had consistent success.  Not Dallas, SD, NE or any other offense.  The Steelers have shut down Moss, Welker, Andre Johnson, T.O., Housh, Ocho Cinco, and Plexico.  Fitz and Boldin are a special pair, so the Steelers have their work cut out for them.  I think though, that they can slow down the Cards passing game enough to win, even if the Cards spread them out.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Super Bowl!!!

Congrats to the Steelers for winning the AFCC game over the Ravens.  A few observations:

1.  Troy is so clutch.
2.  Holmes is turning into a very dangerous receiver when he gets into space.
3.  The o-line and RBs are doing a better job with blitz pickup.  A lot of the pressure on Ben was the result of scheme (more rushers than blockers)...except for Suggs 3-man rush sack.
4.  The Steelers got good pressure by rushing only 4.
5.  The refs stunk.

Looking forward to the Cardinals
There are a lot of analysts talking about the edge that Whisenhut gets over the Steelers because of his familiarity with the defense and the offense.  Well - doesn't that knife cut both ways?  Lebeau faced Whisenhut in practice too.  The Steelers offense knows the tendencies of Ken's play calling too, especially his gadget plays.  They know when he'll call the gadget (between the 50 and 40 of the opponent).  So, I think it is an even field...except Whiz does not know what Tomlin might try to do.

The Eagles amped up the pressure on the second half, and that produced better results than the first.  Philly spent a lot of time in coverage in the first half, and that will not work against such a good QB and receivers.  Do you know Fitzgerald's weakness?  He doesn't play defense.  IOW, he can't hurt you when he is sitting on the sideline.  Here are keys to the game:

Defense
1.  Make the Cards into a one dimensional team by shutting down the run early.  I do not think Edge has the speed or cut-back ability to hurt the Steelers consistently.
2.  Pressure Warner.  He's not very mobile, so that helps.  Look for the Steelers to rush 4 men, maybe 5, but to do so from different angles.  They will need to keep 6-7 men back in coverage for Fitzgerald and Co.  If the Steelers can get pressure with 4, then they can win this game easily.
3.  Don't bite on the trick play - because Whiz will run one.

Offense
1.  Establish the run and control the ball.  That will be a tough task as the Cardinals have tightened up against the run.  In the regular season, they gave up 110 yds per game.  In the playoffs, they surrendered 77 yds.
2.  Control the clock.  Leave the Cards offense on the bench.  This can be accomplished by passing well on 3rd down, as well as running the ball.
3.  Put up 24 points.

The Steelers have too much defense and experience.  Prior knowledge will not play a big role in this game, as it is on both sides of the ball.

Pick:  Steelers 27-Cards 20

Monday, January 12, 2009

Ravens...Strike 3!!!

Nice win over the Chargers.  Now we look at the Ravens.  Here is why the Steelers will win:

1.  The Steelers are healthy and more rested.  The Ravens will be missing Samari Rolle.  The Ravens had 10 players on the injured list on January 10th.  All were questionable with one player, Barnes, listed as out.  They are not healthier after playing the Titans.
2.  The Steeler recievers are better than the Ravens secondary.  Ed Reed is amazing, but the Baltimore corners are suspect in coverage.  It is always about how well the Steelers pass against Baltimore.
3.  Flacco is a rookie and has not played well in the playoffs.  He's avoided the turnovers so far, but he's only completed 44% of his passes.  I think the Steelers defense can force Flacco into one or two turnovers.  In a championship game, I'll go with the QB that has been there and done won it (and lost it too...).

Prognostication:
Steelers over Ravens:  24-13
Cardinals over Eagles:  30-24

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

OK..I haven't posted in a while

So to catch up - here goes:

1.  Right on the Steelers beating Baltimore...but way off in how it would play out.  10-4.
2.  Right on the loss to the Titans.  11-4.
3.  Right on the victory against the hapless Browns.  12-4.

A few people thought I was crazy to pick the Steelers going 11-5 this year with the tough schedule, but that was even conservative.  A 12-4 season HAS to be considered an huge accomplishment for the Tomlin and the Steelers.

Looking to the Chargers:
If the Steelers offense can get going, and I said "IF", then this should be a 10 point victory.  If not, then look for a 2-6 point game.

Steelers on Offense
1.  The I-formation.  Willie likes it.  I like it.  They HAVE to get the running game going.  The Steelers need to run for 90+ yards to make SD respect the line of scrimmage.  They will double team Williams on the inside with Hartwig/Colon or Hartwig/Stapleton.  This is why a FB in the hole is most valuable.  He can pick up someone in the gap and turn a 0 yard run into a 3 yd gain.  Gotta run with a FB 75% of the run plays.
2.  The Chargers secondary has struggled this year and is at the bottom of the league in pass yardage.  I do not think they can stop Ward/Holmes/Miller/Washington consistently.  Pass pro is key, and hopefully the RB's are successful in blitz pickup.  Give Ben 3 seconds, and they will be fine.
3.  Close out.  Score TDs instead of FGs.  Russell is an asset on the goal line, and I expect to see him used there instead of Parker and Moore.

Steelers on Defense
1.  Pressure Rivers.  Kind of obvious...but Woodley needs to establish pressure early to take some attention from Harrison.  Timmons could be key in 3rd down pass rush scenarios.  The coverage units will play as big a role in sacks as the pass rushers.
2.  Beat up Sproles.  He HAS to be tired and sore from last week.  Adrenaline will kick in in the opening of the game, but by the 2nd quarter that will be gone.  The defense needs to hit him hard.  Sproles has a stout heart and is elusive, so it will not be easy.  They also need to funnel Sproles to the middle of the field.  The Steelers cannot afford to have him take the edge.
3.  No big draws or screens.  The Steelers have been burned by some big draws and screens.  They need to pursue properly and take the right angles.

AFC Playoff Prognostication:
Steelers vs. Chargers:  17-10 Steelers
Titans vs Ravens:  23-20 Titans in OT