9-4 - and the Ravens!

STH goes 9-4 on the season prognostication.  Let's look at the Ravens match up:

Most people are picking a low scoring game of attrition.  While this will be a violent game, it will have plenty of offense.

When the Steelers are on O

1.  You don't run on the Ravens, unless you are the Giants. The Steelers typically do not run well against the Ravens.  Parker has been stymied by the Ravens.  The Steelers running game will average 3.0-3.4 yards per carry for 18-24 carries.  They just need to keep the Ravens honest on D.  If they get just one big play in the run game, that will be a bonus.

2.  The Steelers typically pass well against the Ravens, when Ben is not getting his clock cleaned.  Protection is huge in this game, but not throwing INTs is even bigger.  The Steelers WRs and TEs can work against the suspect Ravens secondary (Reed excluded).  Homes and Ward should have good games against the starting corners.  Washington should have a good game working against the nickle corner.   The Steelers need to hang points on this D early, and make Flacco come from behind.  Look for Holmes and Washington deep in the 1st half.  After getting a lead, the Steelers need to dink and dunk with some runs mixed in to bleed the clock and keep the D fresh.  If the Steelers surrender 2 sacks or less, then they'll blow this game open.

When the Steelers are on D

1.  McLain is the most dangerous back on the Ravens vs the Steelers.  Rice is out, and McGahee is OK.  The Steelers typically shut down power running games, and they need to against the Ravens.  They need to make the Ravens O one dimensional.  If the Steelers can keep the number of Ravens runs to under 25, they stand a good chance of winning.  If the Ravens get over 25 carries, that means they are controlling the ball and tiring the Steeler D.

2.  Flacco is a very good rookie, and the Steelers cannot afford to think he'll play like one (or like Romo).  He plays very well with Mason, and that will be the challenge for the Steelers. In 3rd and 6-10, Mason will be the #1 option.  The Steelers need to shut him down on 3rd to force the punt.  If the Steelers can get 4 or more sacks, then they will stymie the Ravens D and create key  turnovers.  If they can't pressure Flacco, he'll make some plays.  Look for a new offensive wrinkle from Cam Cameron this game.

Wrap-up

This game comes down to who passes the best.  I'll go with Ben and the Steelers receivers over Flacco and the Ravens receivers.  Look for big plays in the first half, and look for Flacco to turn the ball over in the second half as he tries to play catch-up.

In the preseason prognostication I said this:

It seems the Ravens are therapeutic for the Steelers.  I think Flacco will be starting by this time in the season, and they abuse the rookie.  Steelers 34-10 with a 10-4 record.

 

The Ravens are better than expected at this point.  I still think the Steelers win this going away:  27-13 Steelers.

STH happily is 8-4

Woo hoo!!  Big, dominating win over the Patsies.  Gotta love it!

Looking forward to the Cowboys at Heinz Field:

Steelers with the ball

The Dallas 3-4 is an interesting thing.  The DL is not very big, especially at the NT position.  Ratliff is 6-4, 305.  This is a stark contrast to guys like Hampton, Wilfork, Jenkins, Shaun Rogers, Jamal Williams...you get it...BIG NTs in the AFC.  All of these guys are 330+.  The interior OL should feel like it is getting a break this week.

The Steelers offense will need to take advantage of a couple of things:  a smaller middle of the defense, average ILBs and a weak secondary.

The running game should be effective up the middle and between the G/T gap.  I think Hartwig and Kemo can get plenty of push straight off of the ball to be effective.  Also, pulling the opposite G into the G/T gap should create numbers, assuming the pulling side T can get a good backside seal.  Colon and Starks are good run blockers, so this plays to the Steelers pretty well.

Although the Cowboys get Pacman back for this game, I think the Dallas secondary is challenged.  Newman has shown that he can have a bad game.  Henry is nothing special.  Pacman does help when the Steelers go the 3WR set, as Washington will not be able to abuse the nickel corner.  The Dallas safeties are nothing special, even when "Roy Weeams" was not injured.  The Dallas ILBs are average in coverage.  The combination of Ward, Holmes, Miller, Washington, Spaeth and Moore should present plenty of opportunities in the passing game, assuming Ben has protection.

Ware has the lion's share of sacks for the Cowboys, so Parker, Moore and Davis will need to help Starks with the chip.  The rest of the sacks are sprinkled pretty evenly among the other Dallas D players.  The OL has to keep Ratliff from applying pressure up the middle, and has to pick up the blitz.

If the OL can run block like they did against the Pats, and can provide 3-4 seconds for Ben to throw, then the Steelers O should put up 24-28 points.

Dallas with the ball

Romo is a good QB.  However, he has also shown the ability for the real bone-headed play.  With the Dallas running game completely shut down, Dallas will have to pass to move the ball.  They have the weapons in T.O., Roy Williams, Crayton and Witten.

Dallas will try to run in the 1st half, with little results.  Even if Barber is healthy, he would not be effective.  This D is geared to stopping power backs.  No dice for Dallas.

When passing, I think the Steelers D has the advantage.  Tomlin's influence has created better coverage in Lebeau's defense.  With the addition of Timmons in the nickel, the middle of the defense has a LOT more speed to negate guys like Witten.  Harrison will wreak his typical havoc against Adams.  Woodley vs. Columbo goes to Woodley.  With Polamalu going off and Clark playing solid, there is very little room to pass the ball, and very little time to read the defense.  The one concern to watch is Romo's scrambling ablity, but that can't be a offensive game plan.  Romo and T.O. will be frustrated by the 2nd quarter, and will make mistakes.

Look for Dallas to put up 10-14 points.

Pre-season progostication was Steelers 20-13.  Sounds close, but I think the Steelers will put up more than 20.