Steelhead

Draft Thoughts

Evander Hood

I like his size at DE, being 300lbs.  I like his motor and style of play.  Will he replace Keisel or Smith?  I think this will be Keisel's last year with the Steelers.  This is his last year on his contract, and I'm sure the Steelers will want Hood starting next year.  Look for Hood to start contributing in the nickle 2-4-5 alignment by week 8.  A duo of Hood and Smith would give a nice balance of run stopping and interior pass rush.  This means Hood would be stealing playing time from Keisel - very similar to the Timmons/Foote scenario.

Kraig Urbik

Big and nasty - I love it!  Look for Urbik to challenge for the RG position in camp.  If Urbik picks up the zone blocking scheme and playbook, I think he'll be more effective than Stapleton for Week 1.  Wisconsin OL prospects do very well in the NFL, and I expect Urbik to excel in the Steelers scheme.  The interior running game should improve with him in the lineup, however, his big learning curve will be in pass pro, blitz recognition and stunt pickups.

Mike Wallace

For the love of Pete, all he has to do is make the team as a kick returner.  His primary competition, Gary Russell, was cut already.  Any production at WR would be bonus.   All he has to do is catch the ball and get past the 20 on KO returns, and not fumble punts.  The kid has speed, so if the ST unit can get him a crease, it could be very fun to watch.

Keenan Lewis

Kind of reminds me of Ike with less speed and identical hands.  Might be a free safety eventually, as Clark is in his last contract year, and Lewis has the size.

Joe Burnett

Too small for a Steelers corner, and doesn't have very good speed.  Maybe a good punt return guy, but reminds me of Willie Reid...and we know how that turned out.  Reid was faster too.  Can he make the team by just contributing on ST?  I guess we'll find out.  I think this is one pick that does not make the team...but contributes on the practice squad.

Frank Summers

I love this pick.  I think Frank already took Gary Russell's goaline role.  If I were Willie Parker, I'd be worried.  With Mendenhall coming back from injury, and Summers taking the short yardage situations, and Moore coming in on 3rd downs...well...what will Willie's role be?  I think Parker will be gone in two years, as his primary game is speed, and that will slip eventually.  Back to Summers - he is aggressive and physical and has decent speed too.  Has really good hands that can create a mismatch with a smaller defender.  Think LaRon McLain.

Ra'shon Harris

Eh - practice squad.

A.Q. Shipley

Value pick here, as he will be the backup center as a rookie, and might even start someday.  The biggest knock is his short arms.  If he can work through that, he will be a decent center for a while...certainly better than Mahan....oops.

David Johnson

Might challenge Spaeth for the 2nd TE spot, and McHugh for the H-back type role.  However, he's got his work cut out for him with McHugh.  Probably contributes on the practice squad until Spaeth moves on.

A lot of people are grading this draft...I'll wait to see who actually makes the team and contributes.  I do like the fact the Steelers brought in talented players at the positions of need.

Steelhead

Free Agency Update and Pre-draft Thoughts

Free Agency Updates

1.  Losing Nate

I'm unsure of the effects of losing Nate Washington.  If Sweed steps up, then it is no big deal.  If Sweed struggles, then the offense might not be as effective on passing downs.  They still have Ward, Holmes, Miller and Moore as good receiving threats.  Mendenhall might be a decent receiver out of the backfield, like Moore.  However, Sweed has shown that he can get separation against nickle backs.  If Ward or Holmes miss playing time due to injury, then Sweed might struggle against starting corners.  How will this uncertainty affect the draft?  Will the Steelers take another WR at 1.32?

2.  Losing McFadden

A good nickle back is no longer a luxury in the NFL.  If you want to compete at a high level, the defense has to have 3 solid CBs.  The Steelers currently have Ike, Gay and Townsend.  These three are good, but an injury might cause issues at depth.  This position is a lot like the WR position, in that the starters are good, but depth is needed.

3.  Keeping Debo

This is a great deal getting Harrison signed long term.  I think that was a necessary thing to do, as he completely outplayed his contract.  Good for an Akron boy!

Pre-draft Thoughts

1.  Positions with need now

Right guard is the most glaring need on this team right now.  Stapleton is a good backup, but as a starter he is not as consistent as you'd like.  As the Steelers parted ways with Simmons, this is the position that has the biggest immediate need.

2.  Positions with need in 2010

Hartwig, Ward, Clark, Foote, Colon, Starks and Hampton all are playing on their last year of contract in 2009.  Ward will be re-signed, as will Big Snack.  The question is, how will the Steelers upgrade ILB and C?  Timmons is a good ILB, but he needs another young buck next to him.  Farrior is no longer at his peak.  Will the Steelers re-sign Clark?  Will the Steelers re-sign their OTs?

The DE position is getting long in the tooth, so a young buck here would be nice too.

3.  Steeler options

The Steelers can draft the best interior lineman available.  I like Alex Mack, who can play RG as an immediate upgrade in 2009, and then slide to C in 2010.  The kid out of Oregon, Unger, woud be good for this too.

Look for the Steelers to have high priority for drafting the following positions:  C/G, WR, CB and DE.  Other positional needs are OT, ILB and FS.  The Steelers will most likely not draft a QB, TE, RB, FB, SS, OLB and NT.

Steelhead

Steeler OL Update

With Kemo's re-signing, the projected 2009 OL looks like this:

Starks - Kemo - Hartwig - ? - Colon

Some fans would like to see Colon move to guard, which might happen if they Steelers can get a quality RT in the draft.  Or, if not, the Steelers could draft an interior lineman.  Stapleton is a good backup, but not exactly what is needed for a starter.

ESPN's McShay has the Steelers taking Eben Britton at 32.  Here is a sampling of post-combine rd 1 picks for the Steelers:

McShay - Eben Britton (OT), Arizona

Rob Rang, Prisco and Chad Reuter (CBS) - Eben Britton

Walter Football - Duke Robinson (G), Oklahoma

Most of the other mock drafts have the Steelers taking Eben Britton also.  If Britton is gone, the Steelers can look at Alex Mack or Robinson for the interior.  Or thay can surprise everyone and take a skill position player.

Steelhead

AFC North Free Agency Updates

From the bottom up:

Browns

Big news is that Winslow was trades to TB.  I think this is a good move by the Browns, as Winslow's act was getting old.  They got rid of a bad locker room guy, and got a 2009 2nd and 2010 5th (or so it seems) for him.  They need picks badly.

The other big story is that Shawn Rogers and Mangini have some issues.  I think that Dutch from Postgameheroes has it right.  http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=5799&cpage=1#comment-4333

Bengals

No big news yet.  Let's see where TJ lands.

Ravens

Bart Scott is gone to the Jets.  Scott is an OK player.  He is pretty average at ILB, but I think the Jets want him to be the signal caller for the defense as he knows Ryan's schemes.  Not a huge loss for the Ravens, but they'll need to find a way to get another average ILB, or hope one of their backups steps up.  I'm sure Scott is relieved to not see Hines Ward twice a year anymore.  BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Ray Ray has slowed, and he's not getting many offers from the outside.  He's a liability in coverage, and has lost a step.  If you run right at him, he's pretty effective.  He will probably stay with the Ravens as they have already lost Scott.

Ravens cut McAlister and Leonhard from their secondary.

Steelers

Starks get franchised and Kemo is re-signed.  Colon gets a RFA tender.  Looks like the only position to be fixed is RG.

Harrison's new deal is not finished yet.  We'll see how this works out.

Who knows where Nate and McFadden will land?  Good riddance to Anthony Smith.

Steelhead

Steel Curtain Radio #3

http://media.libsyn.com/media/wtcb/SCR_3.mp3

Steelhead

Leigh Bodden

As McFadden looks like he's heading away from the Steelers, an option to replace him would be Leigh Bodden.  Bodden was cut from the Lions today, and is an UFA.  Pro's for Bodden's signing:

1.  He knows the AFC North after being on the Browns squad from 2003-2007.

2.  He can compete in for the starting CB position with Gay.  Townsend, Bodden and Gay competing for that position would be fun to watch.

3.  I do not think there would be any appreciable drop off in the secondary.

4.  He'd be cheaper than McFadden.

You have to wonder why he was cut from Detroit.  Was he really that bad, or was he a casualty of the new regime purge?

I hope the Steelers re-sign McFadden, but Bodden might be a good Plan B if McFadden bolts.

Steelhead

Kendall Simmons is released

Kendall Simmons has been released.  In 2007, he signed a 4 year extension worth $23.1 million.  His release will not save the Steelers several million in cap space in 2009, which will not help put together the contract for Silverback.  What does this mean for the OL?  It means it will get better.  Simmons was playing sub-par football prior to his Achilles injury.  Stapleton, an average OG, came in and added some stability to the RG position.  Look for the Steelers to target the best interior lineman in the draft.

Anthony Smith will become an UFA, as he did not receive a tender.  It will be interesting to see if anyone signs him.

Also released is ILB Mike Humpal.  He might be re-signed for the practice squad at a later date.

Steelhead

Jeff Saturday to the Steelers?

Rumor and reports have it that Jeff Saturday, the former center for the Colts, would be OK with being a Steeler.  I think this is good, as it may provide some leverage in the Kemo negotiations.  It may reduce the price the Steelers have to pay Kemo to keep him.  Saturday made $3.5M last year, and is 34 years old.  He was an undrafted FA, so his salary history has not been too crazy.  Let's look at the pros and cons for signing Saturday:

Pros

1.  You know what you are getting from him.  Jeff is a known quantity.

2.  Jeff has played in the zone blocking scheme that Zierlein likes to run.  I'm not a fan of it, but get guys that know it if you are going to do it.

3.  He is position flexible in the interior.  Jeff is an established center and guard who can certainly pass protect.  Pass pro and short yardage situations seemed to be the Achilles heel for the Steelers OL in 2008.

4.  He is smart and can make all of the protection adjustments.  Currently Ben runs those calls, but it would be good to have another pair of experienced eyes to help him.

5.  Hartwig is in the last year of his 2-yr $3.725M deal.  This would give some flexibility if Hartwig does not re-sign.

Cons

1.  He's 34.

2.  He might not want to take a pay cut.  I think the Steelers would want to pay him at most $2.7-$3M per year.  With Starks and Harrison getting new deals, how much will be left?

3.  Jeff has had an increased injury problem the past two years.

The Steelers did sign Hartings when he was 30, but that gave him 6 years with the team.  At 34, the Steelers will probably get 2-3 good years from Saturday.

So, my hunch is that the Steelers will not sign Saturday due to his age and injury situation.  The Benglas, however, are a team who will overpay for an aging player that will not provide a long term answer.

Steelhead

Starks gets tagged

So, the Steelers have franchised Starks.  The non-exclusive tag will cost around $8.7M if they cannot reach a long term deal.  I think some in Steeler Nation will be upset about franchising Starks, but what else could they do?  Gross is too expensive, and there realyl are not many FAs that provide a big upgrade over Starks.  

This means that keeping Marvel Smith will be difficult, unless he takes a very low salary (maybe even league minimum).  I do not think that any other team will look seriously at Smith because of his injury history.  

I think that Colon will get an RFA offer that will keep him with the Steelers, at least for one more year.

Here is what we know about the OL through the offseason to date:

Starks - ? - Hartwig - ? - Colon?

What will happen with Kemo and the RG position.  Will Simmons return from his Achilles injury? Does that even matter?  Will Stapleton play RG again, or will the Steelers sign a FA or draft a guy to plug into RG right away?  Will they take Mack with the 32nd pick and move Hartwig to OG?  We'll see...

Steelhead

Steel Curtain Radio #2

http://media.libsyn.com/media/wtcb/SCR2.mp3

Steelhead

Steel Curtan Radio #1

Get it here:

http://media.libsyn.com/media/wtcb/SCR_1.mp3

Steelhead

Defensive End Prospects

Let's look at an area of the roster that is getting older.  The Smith and Kiesel are pretty good, especially Smith.  His domination in the run game was evident in the playoff loss to the Jags.  The Steelers struggled to stop the run when he was not playing.  Let's look at good 3-4 DE prospects, and what they need to fit the Steeler's system:

1.  Size:  6-2 or taller, 275 to 300 lbs.  Not a typical DE that is a little lighter in the pants.  Steeler DEs are big and powerful, like smaller DTs.

2.  Need to be able to handle double teams well.  If they get double teamed by the OL, they need to be able to hold the point of attack.  A DE in this position will probably not make the tackle, but they will give the ILBs plenty of room to shut down the run.

The prospects:

1.  Tyson Jackson  6'4"  295 lbs  

McShay grades Jackson out as a 93. 

2.  Robert Ayers  6'3" 273 lbs  

Looks to be a second day pick.  Grades out as an 87.

There is really only one prospect that fits the Steeler DE mold and can be a starter in the future.  That is Tyson Jackson.  The Steelers will probably need to take him at the end of Rd 1, as he will be gone by the 64th pick.  Tyson is an established player with a lot of film.  He stops the run in dominant fashion, and is an adequate, not dominating, pass rusher.  He has no off the field problems.

Jackson is most likely on the draft board as a first pick option for the Steelers.

Steelhead

James Harrison

Here is a good article from James', and my, hometown paper:

http://www.ohio.com/sports/39277017.html

What a great thought that two of the best Steelers are from Ohio - Ben and Deebo.  The fact that the Browns did not sign Deebo when he was available makes his performance even sweeter.

Go Steelers!

Everyone Quit Crying about the SB Officiating

VP of Officiating Mike Pereira:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80e8fa89

Prospects

The OL prospects are abundant in the 2009 draft.  This bodes well for the Steelers, as that seems to be their only weakness on the team.  Here are prospects that the Steelers are probably going to watch closely at the combine:

OT

Eben Britton  6'6"  310lbs

Phil Loadholt  6'8"  337lbs

Alex Boone  6'8"  312lbs

Most draft boards have Britton and Loadholt going by the 32nd pick.  If the Steelers can re-sign Starks and secure Colon, not too hard with a RFA, then look for an OT in rounds 3-4.  I like Alex Boone around there.  I do not think that OT is as big a priority as the interior line, although an upgrade at RT would be nice.

OG

Duke Robinson  6'5"  335lbs

Andy Levitre  6'3"  317lbs

Herman Johnson  6'7"  386lbs  (!!)

Kraig Urbik  6'6"  332 lbs

There are a few monsters in here at OG.  A lot of draft boards have the Steelers taking Duke Robinson with the 32nd pick.  That would be fine with me.  He looks to be the best OG prospect.  Herman Johnson with the 96th pick would be good, but I do not think that he would fit into the Steelers blocking schemes at LG as he has lower mobility...i.e. he has trouble pulling.  However, at RG he could be a complete monster in the running game.  Urbik is another good RG prospect and would be an assest in the running game.  I think this is where the Steelers need to improve the most, at either RG or LG.  If the Steelers re-sign Kemo, look for a draft pick to play RG immediately.  I do not think Simmons or Stapleton will make the team if that happens.

C

Alex Mack  6'4"  316lbs

Max Unger  6'5"  300lbs

Antoine Caldwell  6'3"  305lbs

Many draft boards have the Steelers taking Mack with the 32nd pick.  There is about a 45/45 spilt between Mack and Robinson.  The other 10% has the Steelers taking an OT.  Hartwig was adequate at center, but drafting an upgrade might be nice.   I think Mack is a great pick at 32.  If the Steelers go OG, look for them to take Caldwell in the 3-4th rounds.

The ideal scenario for 4 rounds:

Rd 1:  Duke Robinson

Rd 2:  Max Unger

Rd. 3:  CB or DE

Rd 4:  Alex Boone

This is ideal as it permits the Steelers to offer Colon a one year max RFA offer, and to prep Boone at RT in case he looks as good as or better than Colon in pass pro.  This puts a stud at RG, assuming Kemo re-signs, or offers his replacement at LG.  Unger can play C or compete for the RG position.

The OL might look like this:  Starks - Kemo - Hartwig/Unger - Robinson- Colon

Without Kemo:  Starks - Robinson - Hartwig - Unger - Colon

Depth:  Boone, Hills, Stapelton, Essex

Second Option:

Rd 1:  Alex Mack

Rd 2:  Herman Johnson

Rd 3:  CB orDE

Rd 4:  Kraig Urbik

What to do with Hartwig if Mack plays C?  This lets the Steelers part with Kemo and put Urbik in his place.  Johnson could play RG with Stapleton as depth.  Hartwig could provide depth at C/G.  Hills and Essex would have to be the depth for OT.

The OL might look like this:  Starks - Urbik - Mack - Johnson - Colon

Depth:  Hartwig, Stapleton, Hills, Essex

Either way, this draft is coming at the right time for the Steelers, even with the last pick in each round.

Steelhead

Lance Needs To Change The Name of His Show

http://media.libsyn.com/media/wtcb/5AE_125.mp3

Go listen!

WOW!!

Awesome game!  The Steelers are now the proud owners of SIX championships.  Congrats to the Rooneys, the Steeler organization, and all of Steeler Nation.

Now let's look forward to the off-season, free agency and the draft.  Here is a positional analysis for the Steelers:

Offense

QB - The QB position is obviously set.  The backup position will be interesting though.  I think Leftwich will be offered a good contract, and will leave.  The Steelers will have Ben, Batch and Dixon on the roster next year.

RB - After spending a 1st round pick on Mendenhall, the Steelers will be OK at RB next year.  Look for Moore, Davis and Russell to return.  However, Russell might be on the bubble if they do not keep 5 RBs.  Hopefully, the goal line offense gets better with Mendenhall.  I'd like to see a blocking upgrade at the FB position, but I do not think we'll see that.  

WR - Obviously Ward and Holmes will be back.  After that, things get interesting.  Nate is an UFA after this year, and it is unknown whether he will get an offer worth considering from somewhere else.  If Nate thinks Sweed will challenge him for the #3WR spot, and he gets a decent offer, he might be gone.  If he stays, the competition at the #3WR spot will be intense.  If Sweed matures a bit, the Steelers will have good depth and a formidable 4WR set.

TE - No issues here.  Dekker won't be back, but Heath, Spaeth and McHugh will man this position just fine.  McHugh will have to be re-signed, but he'll come pretty cheap.

OT - Now things get interesting.  I'm 99.9% sure that Marvel will not be re-signed.  It is a shame, but his back is just too tweaked to be reliable.  Colon is a RFA, so either they'll give him the highest 1 year offer (no one will give up a 1st and a 3rd), or they'll get him into a 3-4 year contract.  Starks is an interesting one to watch too.  Some people have been clamoring to sign Gross from Carolina, but he'll get the franchise tag.  They let Smith walk, so they will try to re-sign Starks for 2-3 years.  They will use Essex as the backup LT.  The backup RT will depend on the draft, or might just be Hills.

OG - More intrigue.  Kemo is up.  I think Kemo gets a new contract, but for reasonable money.  Hopefully, he works on his pass pro in the off-season.  If Simmons comes back well from his Achilles injury, they might NOT re-sign Kemo, and they might move Simmons to LG.   Stapleton has done a decent job, but lacks the size and strength to go against big DTs.  Good in pass pro.  If you could combine Stapleton and Kemo, you'd have a pretty good OG.   I think OG is one of the positions that the Steelers will address on the first day of the draft, maybe even Rd 1 if the prospect is good enough.

C - Hartwig has done a good job so far.  I think the Steelers will be looking for a future center in the draft, particularly the 1st and 2nd rounds.  This happened to Hartwig when Carolina took Kalil.

Defense

DL - The Steelers DL is quality, but is aging.  I think they will draft on day 1 here.  Roye got his ring and will retire, opening up a roster space.  Look for a DE to be taken in rounds 2-3.

OLB - No issues, except for maybe giving Harrison more money.  Some of the backups are UFAs, but I do not think that is a big deal as they will be eager to re-sign or will be easily replaced.  Hopefully, Bruce Davis can get some things together and contribute next year.

ILB - There are rumors that Foote wants to go to Detroit.  I think that would be OK.  I think Timmons is now ready to play inside.  Timmons is not the ideal mac backer, so look for a player to be drafted for the future mac position.  Farrior will stay at the buc position until he retires, and then Timmons will take his spot.  Look for Humpal to make it from the practice squad and be a backup ILB.  I think Fox gets re-signed for ST and as a backup.  

CB - McFadden will not get a big offer as a UFA, and he will be back with the Steelers.  Other than some backups and ST players, there will not be a lot of movement here.

S - Anthony Smith is really the question mark here.  As a RFA, will he be given an offer?  I think so, but he seems to be in Tomlin's doghouse...or at least toward the bottom of the depth chart.  when the Steelers use 3 safeties, they insert Carter.  Does an OK job on ST though.

Special Teams

K - No changes.

P - Thank goodness Sepulveda comes back.  Berger is gone and can retire with a ring.  Good for him.

Draft Needs

Here are the Steelers needs:

1.  Interior offensive line - Look for the Steelers to get the best C or OG available with the 32nd pick.  They might address this need twice on the first day of the draft.

2.  DL depth - Look for the Steelers to address this in the 2nd or 3rd round.  Look for some late round picks here too.

3.  Kick Returner - The return game for the Steelers has no pop.  The Steelers need to draft a DB or a WR that can return kicks.  Imagine this team if they can get field position past the 35 once or twice a game.  Sometimes, they need to flip the field and take pressure off of the defense.

4.  MLB - an ideal mac backer.

We'll look at potential FA signings in a late post.

Enjoy the Championship!!

5 Ain't Enough

Hey guys - check out Lance's podcast titled "5 Ain't Enough".  I enjoy his show twice a week, as do many over at www.postgameheroes.com.  He always has good analysis and grades.

http://whatchatalkinbout.com/?cat=5

Go Steelers!!

Spreading Out the Steelers Defense

OK...here it comes - the recipe for beating the Steelers.  Go 3WR and spread them out.  At least, this is what some analysts, like Charlie Casserly, are saying.  There is a reason for this.  The Patriots have used this scheme in 2003 and 2004 to defeat the Steelers pretty handily.  However, it has not worked very well recently, and here is why:

1.  The Steeler pass rush is much improved this season with Harrison/Woodley/Timmons.  It used to be that the Steelers were a blitzing defense (Blitzburgh), especially in the 90's.  This squad can get pressure with only 4 rushers, leaving 7 to cover.  They come from different angles, but most of the time (75%) Lebeau sends 4. We'll talk about coverage schemes later...this point is about pressure with 4.  The pressure usually requires a RB or TE to help out blocking.  So, this leaves 4 guys in the pattern against 7 defenders.  When a RB or TE stays in to block, this frees up a defender to free lance or to double.  This caused Polamalu's big INT vs the Ravens.  He was man up against Heap, who stayed in to block.  This freed up Troy to read Flacco, and get the pick 6.

2.  The Steelers corners are much better, particularly the depth.  Taylor can cover the best WRs in man coverage.  Townsend can take the number two, and McFadden can cover the 3rd WR.  This leaves Gay for dime alignments.  Usually, the Steelers had one good corner, one average corner, and one that looked like burnt toast.  Not this squad - they have the depth to hang.

3.  The Steelers most often use a 2-4-5 set to counter 3WR sets. The Steelers have two guys that really make a big difference in coverage in this alignment:  Polamalu and Timmons.  Timmons has the speed to chase down RBs and WRs, or to come on the pass rush.  We all know what Troy does.  These two have the speed to erase coverage mistakes.

4.  Tomlin has brought a lot of cover 2 to the defensive schemes, and his experience as a D-back coach has paid dividends.  Lebeau still has the overloads and zone blitz schemes, but now they are backed with DBs playing lights-out cover 2 or cover 3.

Notice that the Patriots did not have much success passing with spreading the Steelers out (they had a couple big draws though).  No team has had consistent success.  Not Dallas, SD, NE or any other offense.  The Steelers have shut down Moss, Welker, Andre Johnson, T.O., Housh, Ocho Cinco, and Plexico.  Fitz and Boldin are a special pair, so the Steelers have their work cut out for them.  I think though, that they can slow down the Cards passing game enough to win, even if the Cards spread them out.

Super Bowl!!!

Congrats to the Steelers for winning the AFCC game over the Ravens.  A few observations:

1.  Troy is so clutch.

2.  Holmes is turning into a very dangerous receiver when he gets into space.

3.  The o-line and RBs are doing a better job with blitz pickup.  A lot of the pressure on Ben was the result of scheme (more rushers than blockers)...except for Suggs 3-man rush sack.

4.  The Steelers got good pressure by rushing only 4.

5.  The refs stunk.

Looking forward to the Cardinals

There are a lot of analysts talking about the edge that Whisenhut gets over the Steelers because of his familiarity with the defense and the offense.  Well - doesn't that knife cut both ways?  Lebeau faced Whisenhut in practice too.  The Steelers offense knows the tendencies of Ken's play calling too, especially his gadget plays.  They know when he'll call the gadget (between the 50 and 40 of the opponent).  So, I think it is an even field...except Whiz does not know what Tomlin might try to do.

The Eagles amped up the pressure on the second half, and that produced better results than the first.  Philly spent a lot of time in coverage in the first half, and that will not work against such a good QB and receivers.  Do you know Fitzgerald's weakness?  He doesn't play defense.  IOW, he can't hurt you when he is sitting on the sideline.  Here are keys to the game:

Defense

1.  Make the Cards into a one dimensional team by shutting down the run early.  I do not think Edge has the speed or cut-back ability to hurt the Steelers consistently.

2.  Pressure Warner.  He's not very mobile, so that helps.  Look for the Steelers to rush 4 men, maybe 5, but to do so from different angles.  They will need to keep 6-7 men back in coverage for Fitzgerald and Co.  If the Steelers can get pressure with 4, then they can win this game easily.

3.  Don't bite on the trick play - because Whiz will run one.

Offense

1.  Establish the run and control the ball.  That will be a tough task as the Cardinals have tightened up against the run.  In the regular season, they gave up 110 yds per game.  In the playoffs, they surrendered 77 yds.

2.  Control the clock.  Leave the Cards offense on the bench.  This can be accomplished by passing well on 3rd down, as well as running the ball.

3.  Put up 24 points.

The Steelers have too much defense and experience.  Prior knowledge will not play a big role in this game, as it is on both sides of the ball.

Pick:  Steelers 27-Cards 20

Ravens...Strike 3!!!

Nice win over the Chargers.  Now we look at the Ravens.  Here is why the Steelers will win:

1.  The Steelers are healthy and more rested.  The Ravens will be missing Samari Rolle.  The Ravens had 10 players on the injured list on January 10th.  All were questionable with one player, Barnes, listed as out.  They are not healthier after playing the Titans.

2.  The Steeler recievers are better than the Ravens secondary.  Ed Reed is amazing, but the Baltimore corners are suspect in coverage.  It is always about how well the Steelers pass against Baltimore.

3.  Flacco is a rookie and has not played well in the playoffs.  He's avoided the turnovers so far, but he's only completed 44% of his passes.  I think the Steelers defense can force Flacco into one or two turnovers.  In a championship game, I'll go with the QB that has been there and done won it (and lost it too...).

Prognostication:

Steelers over Ravens:  24-13

Cardinals over Eagles:  30-24

OK..I haven't posted in a while

So to catch up - here goes:

1.  Right on the Steelers beating Baltimore...but way off in how it would play out.  10-4.

2.  Right on the loss to the Titans.  11-4.

3.  Right on the victory against the hapless Browns.  12-4.

A few people thought I was crazy to pick the Steelers going 11-5 this year with the tough schedule, but that was even conservative.  A 12-4 season HAS to be considered an huge accomplishment for the Tomlin and the Steelers.

Looking to the Chargers:

If the Steelers offense can get going, and I said "IF", then this should be a 10 point victory.  If not, then look for a 2-6 point game.

Steelers on Offense

1.  The I-formation.  Willie likes it.  I like it.  They HAVE to get the running game going.  The Steelers need to run for 90+ yards to make SD respect the line of scrimmage.  They will double team Williams on the inside with Hartwig/Colon or Hartwig/Stapleton.  This is why a FB in the hole is most valuable.  He can pick up someone in the gap and turn a 0 yard run into a 3 yd gain.  Gotta run with a FB 75% of the run plays.

2.  The Chargers secondary has struggled this year and is at the bottom of the league in pass yardage.  I do not think they can stop Ward/Holmes/Miller/Washington consistently.  Pass pro is key, and hopefully the RB's are successful in blitz pickup.  Give Ben 3 seconds, and they will be fine.

3.  Close out.  Score TDs instead of FGs.  Russell is an asset on the goal line, and I expect to see him used there instead of Parker and Moore.

Steelers on Defense

1.  Pressure Rivers.  Kind of obvious...but Woodley needs to establish pressure early to take some attention from Harrison.  Timmons could be key in 3rd down pass rush scenarios.  The coverage units will play as big a role in sacks as the pass rushers.

2.  Beat up Sproles.  He HAS to be tired and sore from last week.  Adrenaline will kick in in the opening of the game, but by the 2nd quarter that will be gone.  The defense needs to hit him hard.  Sproles has a stout heart and is elusive, so it will not be easy.  They also need to funnel Sproles to the middle of the field.  The Steelers cannot afford to have him take the edge.

3.  No big draws or screens.  The Steelers have been burned by some big draws and screens.  They need to pursue properly and take the right angles.

AFC Playoff Prognostication:

Steelers vs. Chargers:  17-10 Steelers

Titans vs Ravens:  23-20 Titans in OT