On to the Patriots:
Steelers' Offense:
1. Willie is out, and Marvel is still out.
2. Ben has played a lot better in the past two games.
What to look for:
1. Passing Game - The Patriots have a very good D-line, slow but experienced LBs and an average secondary. The Steelers need to play to this weakness. The Steelers need to abuse the LBs in coverage early with Miller, Spaeth, Davis and Moore. Look for a lot of underneath routes from the TE/RBs with WR deep routes to clear out the CBs and safeties. I think NE will play a lot of cover 2, and will force Ben to beat them on the road with good reads.
If the underneath stuff hurts NE enough, Bill will be forced to pull a SS/FS robber to make things more difficult in the short game. This is when a deep pass has to hurt the Pats with either a completion or a penalty. I like Nate Washington's chances for a big play this week.
2. Running Game - The running game needs to be unpredictable. Unfortunately, it usually is not. This is Arians' main problem. He can't deceive anyone with his play calling. There are two options: pull Kemo right, or run left. That is all Arians calls. Hopefully, he makes some good calls mixing up the inside/outside runs. The running game does not need to go hog wild. If it produces 100 yards, that is just gravy. A 80-90 yard effort will be enough balance for a win.
Steelers' Defense
1. Keisel is out.
2. Townsend is out.
3. BMac is questionable.
1. Pass D - this will be the most important phase of the game. NE traditionally puts in Moss/Welker/Gaffney and spreads the defense. This makes the Steelers come out of the 3-4 into a nickel alignment. The Steelers have run a 2 DL, 4 LB and 5 DB formation as a nickel D. Usually, this involved Keisel and Smith at the DL positions. Without Keisel, look for a rotation of Eason, Roye, Kirchke and Hoke.
Timmons must be used in pass D. Foote needs to spell Timmons, and not cover. If Welker is in the slot, I'd put Timmons on him and jam him at the line of scrimmage. Welker is a tough guy, but is (relatively) small. I think he can beat a jam from Gay or Bryant, so putting Timmons on him takes advantage of his biggest weakness. Taylor will obviously cover Moss with help over the top from Clark. If the Steelers can take away Moss and Welker, they can win this game...big task though!! Let's see what Lebeau comes up with.
The Pats will game plan to minimize sacks against this D. Look for a lot of 3-5 step drops from Cassel, with quick releases to minimize pressure. Look for a lot of screens, with some in the middle. This is why negating Welker is so important. If the Steelers can delay the release with good coverage, they have a better chance of getting to Cassel. If the Steelers get 3 sacks, that is a good sign that the coverage is working.
2. Run Defense - The Steelers will need to stop the run primarily from a nickel formation. The Patriots will rarely line up and challenge the best run D in the league head on. They are too smart for that. They will spread the defense and look for creases. Look for a lot of draws and delays if the DL does not control the middle of the pocket. Look for Cassel to gain yards on scrambles if the DL does not control the middle of the pocket.
Summary:
This is a tough game schematically for the Steelers. Belichick knows how to attack the base 3-4, and has the weapons to do damage in a 3-4 WR set. The offense will need to put up more than 24 points to win, and I think they will struggle with that.
Pre-season Pick: Pats 27-20.
Pick: Sadly, I pick the Patriots 24-21 over the Steelers.
Hope I'm wrong!! =)
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