9-4 - and the Ravens!

STH goes 9-4 on the season prognostication.  Let's look at the Ravens match up:

Most people are picking a low scoring game of attrition.  While this will be a violent game, it will have plenty of offense.

When the Steelers are on O

1.  You don't run on the Ravens, unless you are the Giants. The Steelers typically do not run well against the Ravens.  Parker has been stymied by the Ravens.  The Steelers running game will average 3.0-3.4 yards per carry for 18-24 carries.  They just need to keep the Ravens honest on D.  If they get just one big play in the run game, that will be a bonus.

2.  The Steelers typically pass well against the Ravens, when Ben is not getting his clock cleaned.  Protection is huge in this game, but not throwing INTs is even bigger.  The Steelers WRs and TEs can work against the suspect Ravens secondary (Reed excluded).  Homes and Ward should have good games against the starting corners.  Washington should have a good game working against the nickle corner.   The Steelers need to hang points on this D early, and make Flacco come from behind.  Look for Holmes and Washington deep in the 1st half.  After getting a lead, the Steelers need to dink and dunk with some runs mixed in to bleed the clock and keep the D fresh.  If the Steelers surrender 2 sacks or less, then they'll blow this game open.

When the Steelers are on D

1.  McLain is the most dangerous back on the Ravens vs the Steelers.  Rice is out, and McGahee is OK.  The Steelers typically shut down power running games, and they need to against the Ravens.  They need to make the Ravens O one dimensional.  If the Steelers can keep the number of Ravens runs to under 25, they stand a good chance of winning.  If the Ravens get over 25 carries, that means they are controlling the ball and tiring the Steeler D.

2.  Flacco is a very good rookie, and the Steelers cannot afford to think he'll play like one (or like Romo).  He plays very well with Mason, and that will be the challenge for the Steelers. In 3rd and 6-10, Mason will be the #1 option.  The Steelers need to shut him down on 3rd to force the punt.  If the Steelers can get 4 or more sacks, then they will stymie the Ravens D and create key  turnovers.  If they can't pressure Flacco, he'll make some plays.  Look for a new offensive wrinkle from Cam Cameron this game.

Wrap-up

This game comes down to who passes the best.  I'll go with Ben and the Steelers receivers over Flacco and the Ravens receivers.  Look for big plays in the first half, and look for Flacco to turn the ball over in the second half as he tries to play catch-up.

In the preseason prognostication I said this:

It seems the Ravens are therapeutic for the Steelers.  I think Flacco will be starting by this time in the season, and they abuse the rookie.  Steelers 34-10 with a 10-4 record.

 

The Ravens are better than expected at this point.  I still think the Steelers win this going away:  27-13 Steelers.

STH happily is 8-4

Woo hoo!!  Big, dominating win over the Patsies.  Gotta love it!

Looking forward to the Cowboys at Heinz Field:

Steelers with the ball

The Dallas 3-4 is an interesting thing.  The DL is not very big, especially at the NT position.  Ratliff is 6-4, 305.  This is a stark contrast to guys like Hampton, Wilfork, Jenkins, Shaun Rogers, Jamal Williams...you get it...BIG NTs in the AFC.  All of these guys are 330+.  The interior OL should feel like it is getting a break this week.

The Steelers offense will need to take advantage of a couple of things:  a smaller middle of the defense, average ILBs and a weak secondary.

The running game should be effective up the middle and between the G/T gap.  I think Hartwig and Kemo can get plenty of push straight off of the ball to be effective.  Also, pulling the opposite G into the G/T gap should create numbers, assuming the pulling side T can get a good backside seal.  Colon and Starks are good run blockers, so this plays to the Steelers pretty well.

Although the Cowboys get Pacman back for this game, I think the Dallas secondary is challenged.  Newman has shown that he can have a bad game.  Henry is nothing special.  Pacman does help when the Steelers go the 3WR set, as Washington will not be able to abuse the nickel corner.  The Dallas safeties are nothing special, even when "Roy Weeams" was not injured.  The Dallas ILBs are average in coverage.  The combination of Ward, Holmes, Miller, Washington, Spaeth and Moore should present plenty of opportunities in the passing game, assuming Ben has protection.

Ware has the lion's share of sacks for the Cowboys, so Parker, Moore and Davis will need to help Starks with the chip.  The rest of the sacks are sprinkled pretty evenly among the other Dallas D players.  The OL has to keep Ratliff from applying pressure up the middle, and has to pick up the blitz.

If the OL can run block like they did against the Pats, and can provide 3-4 seconds for Ben to throw, then the Steelers O should put up 24-28 points.

Dallas with the ball

Romo is a good QB.  However, he has also shown the ability for the real bone-headed play.  With the Dallas running game completely shut down, Dallas will have to pass to move the ball.  They have the weapons in T.O., Roy Williams, Crayton and Witten.

Dallas will try to run in the 1st half, with little results.  Even if Barber is healthy, he would not be effective.  This D is geared to stopping power backs.  No dice for Dallas.

When passing, I think the Steelers D has the advantage.  Tomlin's influence has created better coverage in Lebeau's defense.  With the addition of Timmons in the nickel, the middle of the defense has a LOT more speed to negate guys like Witten.  Harrison will wreak his typical havoc against Adams.  Woodley vs. Columbo goes to Woodley.  With Polamalu going off and Clark playing solid, there is very little room to pass the ball, and very little time to read the defense.  The one concern to watch is Romo's scrambling ablity, but that can't be a offensive game plan.  Romo and T.O. will be frustrated by the 2nd quarter, and will make mistakes.

Look for Dallas to put up 10-14 points.

Pre-season progostication was Steelers 20-13.  Sounds close, but I think the Steelers will put up more than 20.

Patriot Updates

There are some late developments that will affect the game:

Steelers

1.  Looks like Parker will suit up.  Hopefully, he's effective with his bum knee.

2.  Townsend will play.  Hopefully his hammy holds up.

3.  BMac will probably play.  He's listed as questionable, but has practiced for two weeks.  This game is too big for him to sit.  He'll probably wear a protective device on his forearm, but look for him to be fine.

Patriots

1.  Ty Warren's groin has kept him from practicing.  If he plays...well...pulled groins are nasty to walk on, much less play NT.

2.  Seymour has a bum knee.  I think Seymour will play on the knee, and there should not be a big fall off.

3.  Ellis Hobbs has a bum shoulder.  For a CB, this is not too big a deal (not like a leg injury).  He'll play and will be fine.

Go Steelers!!!

Updates...

Since the last post, the Steelers have beaten both the Chargers and the Bengals.  STH goes to 8-3 in the prognostication department, picking both wins over the Bengals and Chargers.

On to the Patriots:

Steelers' Offense:

1.  Willie is out, and Marvel is still out.

2.  Ben has played a lot better in the past two games.

What to look for:

1.  Passing Game - The Patriots have a very good D-line, slow but experienced LBs and an average secondary.  The Steelers need to play to this weakness.  The Steelers need to abuse the LBs in coverage early with Miller, Spaeth, Davis and Moore.  Look for a lot of underneath routes from the TE/RBs with WR deep routes to clear out the CBs and safeties.  I think NE will play a lot of cover 2, and will force Ben to beat them on the road with good reads.  

If the underneath stuff hurts NE enough, Bill will be forced to pull a SS/FS robber to make things more difficult in the short game.  This is when a deep pass has to hurt the Pats with either a completion or a penalty.  I like Nate Washington's chances for a big play this week.

2.  Running Game - The running game needs to be unpredictable.  Unfortunately, it usually is not.  This is Arians' main problem.  He can't deceive anyone with his play calling.  There are two options:  pull Kemo right, or run left.  That is all Arians calls.  Hopefully, he makes some good calls mixing up the inside/outside runs.  The running game does not need to go hog wild.  If it produces 100 yards, that is just gravy.  A 80-90 yard effort will be enough balance for a win.

Steelers' Defense

1.  Keisel is out.

2.  Townsend is out.

3.  BMac is questionable.

1.  Pass D - this will be the most important phase of the game.  NE traditionally puts in Moss/Welker/Gaffney and spreads the defense.  This makes the Steelers come out of the 3-4 into a nickel alignment.  The Steelers have run a 2 DL, 4 LB and 5 DB formation as a nickel D.  Usually, this involved Keisel and Smith at the DL positions.  Without Keisel, look for a rotation of Eason, Roye, Kirchke and Hoke.

Timmons must be used in pass D.  Foote needs to spell Timmons, and not cover.  If Welker is in the slot, I'd put Timmons on him and jam him at the line of scrimmage.  Welker is a tough guy, but is (relatively) small.  I think he can beat a jam from Gay or Bryant, so putting Timmons on him takes advantage of his biggest weakness.  Taylor will obviously cover Moss with help over the top from Clark.  If the Steelers can take away Moss and Welker, they can win this game...big task though!!  Let's see what Lebeau comes up with.

The Pats will game plan to minimize sacks against this D.  Look for a lot of 3-5 step drops from Cassel, with quick releases to minimize pressure.  Look for a lot of screens, with some in the middle.  This is why negating Welker is so important.  If the Steelers can delay the release with good coverage, they have a better chance of getting to Cassel.  If the Steelers get 3 sacks, that is a good sign that the coverage is working.

2.  Run Defense - The Steelers will need to stop the run primarily from a nickel formation.  The Patriots will rarely line up and challenge the best run D in the league head on.  They are too smart for that.  They will spread the defense and look for creases.  Look for a lot of draws and delays if the DL does not control the middle of the pocket.  Look for Cassel to gain yards on scrambles if the DL does not control the middle of the pocket.

Summary:

This is a tough game schematically for the Steelers.  Belichick knows how to attack the base 3-4, and has the weapons to do damage in a 3-4 WR set.  The offense will need to put up more than 24 points to win, and I think they will struggle with that.

Pre-season Pick:  Pats 27-20.

Pick:  Sadly, I pick the Patriots 24-21 over the Steelers.

Hope I'm wrong!!  =)

I've been off a few weeks...

Due to work travel, I've been negligent in posting.  Time to catch up.

STH goes 6-3 on the season picking Steelers games.  STH hit on the Redskins game, but missed on the Colts game.

The Colts game made me sick...'nuff said.  Definitely a chance for the Steelers to separate from the pack, but now they are in the muddled 6-3 group.

Looking forward to San Diego, here are the keys to the game:

Steelers O:

1.  The interior of the line needs to neutralize Jamal Williams.  They do not need to push him off point, but they need to make sure he is not getting penetration or sliding down the line.  This is up to Hartwig, Kemo and Stapleton.  Kemo struggled a bit against the smaller and quicker Colts D line.  Hopefully, he can get a piece of Williams when needed.

2.  When running, use a FB/TE and get numbers at the point of attack.  Against a 3-4 defense, the best place to run (generally) is against the OLB/DE bubble.  Stretch and counter plays work well for this.  A FB can pick up an ILB, and a pulling guard/center can pick off an OLB.  If the Steelers can get a RB on a safety, then there are a lot of opportunities for big plays in the running game.

3.  Get a deep hit early.  By deep, I mean 30+ yards.  The Chargers D has struggled this year, and you want to get them thinking negative early.  This opens up the running game and the underneath routes.  This is important for those blitz adjustments.

Offense Summary:  The Steelers need to pull the San Diego D back, and then establish the run.  This will open up the play action passing game, and also the underneath routes.  I think the Steelers have the edge over the SD defense, especially in 3WR sets.  The Steelers need to be physical when running out of 2TE and I-based sets.

Steelers D:

1.  Ike Taylor needs to shadow Malcolm Floyd.  Floyd is a huge mismatch against the other corners.  Gates needs to draw coverage from Woodley, Timmons or Polamalu, depending on which side of the D is weak or strong.  Foote and Farrior have no business covering Gates, as they will be abused.  They do not have the speed.  Harrison and/or Timmons and/or Woodley should rush the passer on every pass down.  They need to bring 5 on pass rush every time, so look for the Steelers to play a lot of Cover 1.

2.  Pressure Rivers.  They have to bring 5 on pass rush to help out Gay and Fernando Bryant.  Those two should be playing a lot of zone on the outside or slot.

3.  How to handle LT?  The Steelers D should be able to shut down the run, and SD has struggled running the ball so far.  In the passing game, is it incumbent to Timmons or Polamalu to hold LT in check on the underneath routes.  Timmons and Polamalu will play huge roles in the passing game with LT and Gates.  Farrior should be allowed to roam the short/intermediate middle zone for clean up.

Defense Summary:  Pressure the passer with 5 and aggressively take away his best two options:  Gates and Floyd.  The pressure will force LT to either pass block or run short routes.  Then it becomes necessary to limit RAC yards and tackle well.

Pick:  I think Ben bounces back with a good performance, and the D stifles the Chargers.  Steelers  34-17.

AFC North Watch:  The Steelers can get a two game lead on the Ravens by winning this week after watching the Giants beat the Ravens.  The other two teams don't matter.

Giants re-cap and Redskins preview

STH goes 5-2 on the year with the Steeler's loss to the G-men.  No shame in losing to the Giants, but I think the Steelers should have won that game.  Reasons the Steelers lost:

1.  Penalties - especially on the drive that got to the Giants 35...then went backwards to the Steelers 35.  On this drive, the Steelers lost a TD at worst, and 3 points at best.

2.  Poor play from Ben.  I hate to say it, but at least two of the sacks were a result of Ben holding the ball way too long.  Eli got rid of the ball...Ben ate it.

3.  Poor execution in the 4Q.  No first downs...no points...no nothing.

The Steelers did not lose because of the bad snap.  That play was pretty insignificant, except for highlight reels.

Keys to the Redskins game:

Offense

1.  Pass more like the Steelers do against the Ravens.  The Redskins have the 5th ranked rushing defense.  This does not mean the Steelers should abandon the run, but passing will be easier than running.  The Redskins have the 11th ranked pass defense, but they will be missing two starters from the secondary.  Also, the Redskins only have 10 sacks this year, so Ben should be less pressured than against the Giants.

2.  Run outside.  Fletcher is a good MLB, so getting to the edges with either Parker or Moore should create opportunities for big chunks of yards.  Up the middle is not a good game plan.

Defense

1.  Shut down Clinton Portis.  If the Steelers can hold Portis to less than 70 yards, then the Steelers should win.

2.  Abuse the LT Heyer.  I like Silverback against Heyer or a RB.  If the Steelers DL can slant to get Keisel on Heyer or the LG, then Harrison should pop free a lot. The Redskins are giving up an average of 2 sacks per game.  Silverback will get at least 2.

3.  Woodley should get 1 sack.

4.  The pressure should make Campbell force to ball or fumble the ball.  Campbell has been really good this year with ball security.  This is a result of a good running game and good decisions.  However, the Steelers D can take away both, and I do not see the Redskins winning the one-on-one matchups.

The preseason pick had this as a trap game after a big win over the Giants.  However...AHEM...that is not necessarily the case now.  So, I think the Steelers come out and get a win.  Steelers 17-10.

2009 Free Agents

OK...so it is a little early to start looking at free agency, but it is a fun diversion after a loss.  Looking forward to players that would do the Steelers a lot of good:

1.  Chris Snee - RG, NYG  Signing Snee would let the Steelers part ways with Simmons, who has been pretty mediocre lately.  Immediate upgrade in run and interior pass blocking.  This would also limit any downside from Simmons not recovering well from his achilles injury.  If Kemoeatu re-signs, then the guard position is a definite strength.

2.  Dunta Robinson - CB, Texans.  If the Steelers can re-sign McFadden and get Robinson, then they will have a great nickel package.  This gives the Steelers depth and experience at CB.

3.  A kick returner - ANY kick returner