Week Three Ouchie

Ow...that one stung.  The Steelers O got dominated, but at least the D played well.  When the D gives up only 13 points, the Steelers should win.  The Offense has to score at least two touchdowns.  Oh well...

STH is now 2-1.

Baltimore Game Keys:

Steelers O:  The Steelers O needs to counter the blitz early in the game.  Obviously, the Ravens are going to throw every blitz in the package at the Steelers O.  Make them pay.  Hot reads, moving the pocket, RB flares and short TE patterns should be called in the first quarter.  Hopefully, Ben can audible out of them if they look bad at the line of scrimmage.  As far as running the ball, the Steelers will not have Willie Parker.  Parker has struggled against the Ravens who hasn't?), so we'll get to see what Mendenhall has.  Mendenhall posting positive yards is key to keeping the Ravens D honest.

Key Matchup:  Suggs vs Simmons/Colon (this could get ugly)

Steelers D:  Confuse Flacco.  This should lead to turnovers and short fields for the offense.  Unfortunately, until the O gets confident again, the D will need to carry this team.  The deep passing game should not be a huge concern.  Cover 1 should be OK for most of the game as long as pressure gets to Flacco.  I think Polamalu will have a monster game.  The Ravens O does not really scare me.  As long as there is no 3-man rush, they'll get pressure.  Hoke will do fine in Hampton's absence.

Key Matchup:  Tackles vs OLB (Hopefully, this gets ugly)

Pre-season Prediction:  34-7 Steelers.  Flacco has exceeded expecations, but the Steelers still win...Steelers 16-10.

Steelers beat Brownies

I live in NE Ohio...and the silence is deafening.  The loudmouthed, ignorant Browns fans have been stifled and shut up.  Ahhhh...peace at last.

STH is 2-0 on the season.  However, the 10-6 score was way off my prediction mark.  Think the weather had anything to do with it?  =)  On to the Eagles:

1.  The Steelers have stymied McNabb before.  Pressure and keeping contain on McNabb will be critical to disrupting the Eagles passing offense.

2.  Westbrook is dangerous.  His ability our of the backfield and his cut-back running can hurt hte Steelers.  Cut back, slashing type runners can give the Steelers problems if they do not maintain "gap integrity".  Discipline is key to containing Westbrook.  If the Steelers play the nickel, Timmons will get more time.  This bodes well for countering Westbrooks speed and quickness.

3.  The coverage teams need to contain the rookie, DeSean Jackson.  So far, they have contained a couple of the best return men in Andre Davis and Josh Cribbs.  They certainly do not get a break this week.  Jackson is not that big (~170 lbs.), so maybe they can rock him and get him off of the offensive side of the ball.

4.  The Steelers need to have a physical running game against the undersized Eagles front 7.  I hope we see a good dose of Mendenhall to complement Parker.  Well timed play action pass plays, screens and misdirection plays will be key to keeping the aggressive, blitzing Eagles D off balance.

My original pick was 24-10 Steelers...and I'll stick with it.  It is a crap shoot anyway...

Week 1 Wrap-up and Week 2 Predictions

Well...the Texans were the Texans.  I had it 31-17, so I was pretty close.

1-0 so far for game picks.

Looking forward to the Browns, here is what will happen:

1.  Look for a lot of pressure from Harrison and Woodley again.  Harrison will only have 1 sack, because Thomas is a good LT.  Woodley will go off though with 2 sacks and a lot of pressures.

2.  Ben will pass for over 300 yards.  The Cleveland secondary is pitiful, and so is the pass rush.  This leaves the secondary is a bad position, and Ben will expose it.

3.  Score - I still think 27-24 is plausible.  But after the week 1 showings, I'm more inclined to have the Steelers win by 10+.

Prognostication

It is almost time to start the regular season, so I'll look at the schedule and make guesses about how the Steelers will finish.  Here we go:

Houston at Heinz Field

The defense dominates and the offense moves the ball well.  I think Mario might cause some problems, unless the OL really steps up.  Steelers  31-17.

1-0

Cleveland away

This will be a tough game as the Brownies will be jacked up for a nationally televised game.  Ben still beats them because the Brown's secondary stinks.  Steelers  27-24

2-0

Battle of PA away

McNabb will struggle as the Steelers pass D excels, especially Timmons.  Steelers 24-10

3-0

Baltimore at Heinz Field

No offense.  An aging defense...no competition again.  Steelers 34-7

4-0

At Jax

Hmmm...this one scares me.  I think this is the first loss of the season.  Jax seems to have the Steelers number.  Jaguars 28-20

4-1

Bye week...

At Cinci

The Bengals offense will b OK, but the D is horrific.  The Steelers will be dominant in this game.   Steelers  27-17, but not as close as the score.

5-1

Giants at Heinz Field

The Giants D-line will get to Ben, but he will make enough plays to win this one.  One thing to watch - the return of Plax.  Steelers  21-13

6-1

At Washington

This feels like a trap game, and it becomes one.  The Steelers should win this one, but they fall short in D.C.  Skins  19-17

6-2

Colts at Heinz Field

The Colts certainly can't write off the Steelers, as they did in the 2005 playoffs.  The Steelers win a close one at home and punish Manning.  Steelers  28-27

7-2

Chargers at Heinz Field

The Chargers have two players that play to the Steelers' weakness - LT and Gates.  The Chargers beat the Steelers.  Chargers  30-17.

7-3

Bengals at Heinz Field

Time to get healthy after the SD beating.  Steelers  37-14.

8-3

At The Razor

NE sucks, but they are so good.  The Steelers fall short.  27-20.

8-4

Cowboys at Heinz Field

I think that the D will get to Romo and force mistakes.  The Steelers steal one at home.  Steelers 20-13.

9-4

At Baltimore

It seems the Ravens are therapeutic for the Steelers.  I think Flacco will be starting by this time in the season, and they abuse the rookie.  Steelers 34-10.

10-4

At Tennessee

The Steelers struggle against the former Oilers.  The Titans play them close and pull one out at home.  Titans 24-21.

10-5

Cleveland visits Heinz Field

Hopefully, this game still matters.  I'd hate to listen to the Browns fans chirping about beating the Steelers' scrubs.  Steelers  24-17.

11-5

And that kids - puts them in the playoffs.  I don't think they'll get a first round bye, but that is probably a good thing.  That will keep them sharp.

7 Days To Camp

Only 7 more days and the Steelers start camp.  Here are the camp battles that will affect the team's roster going forward:

CB opposite Ike

Bryant McFadden is looking to become the starter this year.  He'll have to bump Deshea Townsend to the nickel back if he wants to do that.  McFadden had two bum ankles last year, and that slowed his development.  Maybe this is the year for him?

Center

OK - Mahan was miserable at center last year.  I think Hartwig should be an upgrade, but he still needs to win the spot.  The interior of the OL was bad last year, and Hartwig winning the spot could help it become stable (probably not stellar though).

Offensive Guard

With Faneca leaving, there seem to be two bodies competing for the LG spot - Kemoeatu and Colon.  Colon's short arms seem to make him more suited to guard, and he gave up a lot of sacks at RT last year.  The RG position is not so certain either.  Simmons did not play very well last year.  Maybe it was his diabetes?  Dunno...but whoever does not win the LG battle might just start at RG.

MLB

Don't look now Foote, but Timmons is slated to play in the middle.  This should be an interesting battle between the savvy vet and a talented young player.  I think both will get some playing time, but who wins the starting spot is a curious thing.

3rd WR

Nate Washington has turned into a serviceable 3rd WR.  Not stellar, but he seems to have reduced his drops.  Having Sweed compete for time with Nate will improve both of the WRs.  The 4WR sets should be quite dangerous this year.

My prediction - BMac starts, The OL is Smith-Colon-Hartwig-Kemo-Starks, Foote starts and Timmons plays mostly passing downs, and Sweed is the 3rd WR.

Go Steelers!

Draft Results

Offense:

I think getting Mahan out of center was the biggest thing that could help the OL.  Hartwig will help immensely.  Given the Hartwig addition, the primary offensive needs entering the draft were (in no particular order):

1.  RB depth - the running game stopped after losing FWP

2.  WR depth - Ward, Holmes, Washington...and...and...oh...no one.

3.  OL depth

The Steelers got all of these covered with Mendenhall, Sweed and Hills.  Hills may project to guard, but he looks be a good tackle in the future.  It is amazing that Sweed lasted until the Steeler's second round pick.

Offensive draft grade:  A

Defense

Booger came into the Steelers and could not pass a physical.  Other than some ST players, the D has not had any FA activity.  So, the pre-draft needs are (in order):

1.  DL depth - when Smith went down, the run D suffered.  we need a young body who can play the 3-4 DE position if Keisel or Smith gets injured

2.  CB depth - someone who can start in a few years when Townsend finally retires or moves to safety

3.  MLB - Farrior is aging and Foote is decent, but not stellar.

Some people clamor about safety, but I think the FS position will be fine.

The LB position was the defensive position to get addressed most, partially because the best 3-4 DE in each round was gone before the Steelers picked.  Davis (UCLA) will most likely play outside as a pass rusher, so maybe Harrison is moving inside eventually?  Humpal is a ST pick, and ILB back-up.  Mundy is a safety backup and ST contributor.

The best D in the league last year got no help on the DL in depth.  Maybe Booger gets healthy and they sign him.  That will help.

Defensive Draft Grade:  C+

Overall grade:  B+

OL starting line-up:  Smith - Kemo - Hartwig - Colon - Starks

LB starting line-up:  Woodly - Foote - Farrior - Harrison

Draft and OL

Given that Fancea is leaving and Max Starks is most likely leaving, here's where I'd like to see the draft go for the Steelers:

Rnd 1 - OT

The Steelers should be able to get either Jeff OTah, Chris Williams or Gosder Cherilius

Rnd 2 - Center

I really like Mike Pollack here, as Mahan had problems at center in 2007.  Pollack has the size (as opposed to Steve Justice) and speed to pull also.  This would let Mahan compete for a guard position or be a backup at center and guard.

Rnd 3 - RB

Depends who falls.  If Matt Forte is available, he'd be a good compliment to FWP.  Mike Hart would be a good choice too...

Rnd 4 - Paul Hubbard.  At 6-4 and 215 he is a big target for Ben.  Runs a decent 4.43 40 too.

Who knows after this...maybe a backup OLB/ILB that can help on ST.  The Steelers definitely need a return specialist, so maybe a fast sub-4.40 CB will be taken.

The DL will need help in 2009 draft...