Lance Needs To Change The Name of His Show

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WOW!!

Awesome game!  The Steelers are now the proud owners of SIX championships.  Congrats to the Rooneys, the Steeler organization, and all of Steeler Nation.

Now let's look forward to the off-season, free agency and the draft.  Here is a positional analysis for the Steelers:

Offense

QB - The QB position is obviously set.  The backup position will be interesting though.  I think Leftwich will be offered a good contract, and will leave.  The Steelers will have Ben, Batch and Dixon on the roster next year.

RB - After spending a 1st round pick on Mendenhall, the Steelers will be OK at RB next year.  Look for Moore, Davis and Russell to return.  However, Russell might be on the bubble if they do not keep 5 RBs.  Hopefully, the goal line offense gets better with Mendenhall.  I'd like to see a blocking upgrade at the FB position, but I do not think we'll see that.  

WR - Obviously Ward and Holmes will be back.  After that, things get interesting.  Nate is an UFA after this year, and it is unknown whether he will get an offer worth considering from somewhere else.  If Nate thinks Sweed will challenge him for the #3WR spot, and he gets a decent offer, he might be gone.  If he stays, the competition at the #3WR spot will be intense.  If Sweed matures a bit, the Steelers will have good depth and a formidable 4WR set.

TE - No issues here.  Dekker won't be back, but Heath, Spaeth and McHugh will man this position just fine.  McHugh will have to be re-signed, but he'll come pretty cheap.

OT - Now things get interesting.  I'm 99.9% sure that Marvel will not be re-signed.  It is a shame, but his back is just too tweaked to be reliable.  Colon is a RFA, so either they'll give him the highest 1 year offer (no one will give up a 1st and a 3rd), or they'll get him into a 3-4 year contract.  Starks is an interesting one to watch too.  Some people have been clamoring to sign Gross from Carolina, but he'll get the franchise tag.  They let Smith walk, so they will try to re-sign Starks for 2-3 years.  They will use Essex as the backup LT.  The backup RT will depend on the draft, or might just be Hills.

OG - More intrigue.  Kemo is up.  I think Kemo gets a new contract, but for reasonable money.  Hopefully, he works on his pass pro in the off-season.  If Simmons comes back well from his Achilles injury, they might NOT re-sign Kemo, and they might move Simmons to LG.   Stapleton has done a decent job, but lacks the size and strength to go against big DTs.  Good in pass pro.  If you could combine Stapleton and Kemo, you'd have a pretty good OG.   I think OG is one of the positions that the Steelers will address on the first day of the draft, maybe even Rd 1 if the prospect is good enough.

C - Hartwig has done a good job so far.  I think the Steelers will be looking for a future center in the draft, particularly the 1st and 2nd rounds.  This happened to Hartwig when Carolina took Kalil.

Defense

DL - The Steelers DL is quality, but is aging.  I think they will draft on day 1 here.  Roye got his ring and will retire, opening up a roster space.  Look for a DE to be taken in rounds 2-3.

OLB - No issues, except for maybe giving Harrison more money.  Some of the backups are UFAs, but I do not think that is a big deal as they will be eager to re-sign or will be easily replaced.  Hopefully, Bruce Davis can get some things together and contribute next year.

ILB - There are rumors that Foote wants to go to Detroit.  I think that would be OK.  I think Timmons is now ready to play inside.  Timmons is not the ideal mac backer, so look for a player to be drafted for the future mac position.  Farrior will stay at the buc position until he retires, and then Timmons will take his spot.  Look for Humpal to make it from the practice squad and be a backup ILB.  I think Fox gets re-signed for ST and as a backup.  

CB - McFadden will not get a big offer as a UFA, and he will be back with the Steelers.  Other than some backups and ST players, there will not be a lot of movement here.

S - Anthony Smith is really the question mark here.  As a RFA, will he be given an offer?  I think so, but he seems to be in Tomlin's doghouse...or at least toward the bottom of the depth chart.  when the Steelers use 3 safeties, they insert Carter.  Does an OK job on ST though.

Special Teams

K - No changes.

P - Thank goodness Sepulveda comes back.  Berger is gone and can retire with a ring.  Good for him.

Draft Needs

Here are the Steelers needs:

1.  Interior offensive line - Look for the Steelers to get the best C or OG available with the 32nd pick.  They might address this need twice on the first day of the draft.

2.  DL depth - Look for the Steelers to address this in the 2nd or 3rd round.  Look for some late round picks here too.

3.  Kick Returner - The return game for the Steelers has no pop.  The Steelers need to draft a DB or a WR that can return kicks.  Imagine this team if they can get field position past the 35 once or twice a game.  Sometimes, they need to flip the field and take pressure off of the defense.

4.  MLB - an ideal mac backer.

We'll look at potential FA signings in a late post.

Enjoy the Championship!!

5 Ain't Enough

Hey guys - check out Lance's podcast titled "5 Ain't Enough".  I enjoy his show twice a week, as do many over at www.postgameheroes.com.  He always has good analysis and grades.

http://whatchatalkinbout.com/?cat=5

Go Steelers!!

Spreading Out the Steelers Defense

OK...here it comes - the recipe for beating the Steelers.  Go 3WR and spread them out.  At least, this is what some analysts, like Charlie Casserly, are saying.  There is a reason for this.  The Patriots have used this scheme in 2003 and 2004 to defeat the Steelers pretty handily.  However, it has not worked very well recently, and here is why:

1.  The Steeler pass rush is much improved this season with Harrison/Woodley/Timmons.  It used to be that the Steelers were a blitzing defense (Blitzburgh), especially in the 90's.  This squad can get pressure with only 4 rushers, leaving 7 to cover.  They come from different angles, but most of the time (75%) Lebeau sends 4. We'll talk about coverage schemes later...this point is about pressure with 4.  The pressure usually requires a RB or TE to help out blocking.  So, this leaves 4 guys in the pattern against 7 defenders.  When a RB or TE stays in to block, this frees up a defender to free lance or to double.  This caused Polamalu's big INT vs the Ravens.  He was man up against Heap, who stayed in to block.  This freed up Troy to read Flacco, and get the pick 6.

2.  The Steelers corners are much better, particularly the depth.  Taylor can cover the best WRs in man coverage.  Townsend can take the number two, and McFadden can cover the 3rd WR.  This leaves Gay for dime alignments.  Usually, the Steelers had one good corner, one average corner, and one that looked like burnt toast.  Not this squad - they have the depth to hang.

3.  The Steelers most often use a 2-4-5 set to counter 3WR sets. The Steelers have two guys that really make a big difference in coverage in this alignment:  Polamalu and Timmons.  Timmons has the speed to chase down RBs and WRs, or to come on the pass rush.  We all know what Troy does.  These two have the speed to erase coverage mistakes.

4.  Tomlin has brought a lot of cover 2 to the defensive schemes, and his experience as a D-back coach has paid dividends.  Lebeau still has the overloads and zone blitz schemes, but now they are backed with DBs playing lights-out cover 2 or cover 3.

Notice that the Patriots did not have much success passing with spreading the Steelers out (they had a couple big draws though).  No team has had consistent success.  Not Dallas, SD, NE or any other offense.  The Steelers have shut down Moss, Welker, Andre Johnson, T.O., Housh, Ocho Cinco, and Plexico.  Fitz and Boldin are a special pair, so the Steelers have their work cut out for them.  I think though, that they can slow down the Cards passing game enough to win, even if the Cards spread them out.

Super Bowl!!!

Congrats to the Steelers for winning the AFCC game over the Ravens.  A few observations:

1.  Troy is so clutch.

2.  Holmes is turning into a very dangerous receiver when he gets into space.

3.  The o-line and RBs are doing a better job with blitz pickup.  A lot of the pressure on Ben was the result of scheme (more rushers than blockers)...except for Suggs 3-man rush sack.

4.  The Steelers got good pressure by rushing only 4.

5.  The refs stunk.

Looking forward to the Cardinals

There are a lot of analysts talking about the edge that Whisenhut gets over the Steelers because of his familiarity with the defense and the offense.  Well - doesn't that knife cut both ways?  Lebeau faced Whisenhut in practice too.  The Steelers offense knows the tendencies of Ken's play calling too, especially his gadget plays.  They know when he'll call the gadget (between the 50 and 40 of the opponent).  So, I think it is an even field...except Whiz does not know what Tomlin might try to do.

The Eagles amped up the pressure on the second half, and that produced better results than the first.  Philly spent a lot of time in coverage in the first half, and that will not work against such a good QB and receivers.  Do you know Fitzgerald's weakness?  He doesn't play defense.  IOW, he can't hurt you when he is sitting on the sideline.  Here are keys to the game:

Defense

1.  Make the Cards into a one dimensional team by shutting down the run early.  I do not think Edge has the speed or cut-back ability to hurt the Steelers consistently.

2.  Pressure Warner.  He's not very mobile, so that helps.  Look for the Steelers to rush 4 men, maybe 5, but to do so from different angles.  They will need to keep 6-7 men back in coverage for Fitzgerald and Co.  If the Steelers can get pressure with 4, then they can win this game easily.

3.  Don't bite on the trick play - because Whiz will run one.

Offense

1.  Establish the run and control the ball.  That will be a tough task as the Cardinals have tightened up against the run.  In the regular season, they gave up 110 yds per game.  In the playoffs, they surrendered 77 yds.

2.  Control the clock.  Leave the Cards offense on the bench.  This can be accomplished by passing well on 3rd down, as well as running the ball.

3.  Put up 24 points.

The Steelers have too much defense and experience.  Prior knowledge will not play a big role in this game, as it is on both sides of the ball.

Pick:  Steelers 27-Cards 20

Ravens...Strike 3!!!

Nice win over the Chargers.  Now we look at the Ravens.  Here is why the Steelers will win:

1.  The Steelers are healthy and more rested.  The Ravens will be missing Samari Rolle.  The Ravens had 10 players on the injured list on January 10th.  All were questionable with one player, Barnes, listed as out.  They are not healthier after playing the Titans.

2.  The Steeler recievers are better than the Ravens secondary.  Ed Reed is amazing, but the Baltimore corners are suspect in coverage.  It is always about how well the Steelers pass against Baltimore.

3.  Flacco is a rookie and has not played well in the playoffs.  He's avoided the turnovers so far, but he's only completed 44% of his passes.  I think the Steelers defense can force Flacco into one or two turnovers.  In a championship game, I'll go with the QB that has been there and done won it (and lost it too...).

Prognostication:

Steelers over Ravens:  24-13

Cardinals over Eagles:  30-24

OK..I haven't posted in a while

So to catch up - here goes:

1.  Right on the Steelers beating Baltimore...but way off in how it would play out.  10-4.

2.  Right on the loss to the Titans.  11-4.

3.  Right on the victory against the hapless Browns.  12-4.

A few people thought I was crazy to pick the Steelers going 11-5 this year with the tough schedule, but that was even conservative.  A 12-4 season HAS to be considered an huge accomplishment for the Tomlin and the Steelers.

Looking to the Chargers:

If the Steelers offense can get going, and I said "IF", then this should be a 10 point victory.  If not, then look for a 2-6 point game.

Steelers on Offense

1.  The I-formation.  Willie likes it.  I like it.  They HAVE to get the running game going.  The Steelers need to run for 90+ yards to make SD respect the line of scrimmage.  They will double team Williams on the inside with Hartwig/Colon or Hartwig/Stapleton.  This is why a FB in the hole is most valuable.  He can pick up someone in the gap and turn a 0 yard run into a 3 yd gain.  Gotta run with a FB 75% of the run plays.

2.  The Chargers secondary has struggled this year and is at the bottom of the league in pass yardage.  I do not think they can stop Ward/Holmes/Miller/Washington consistently.  Pass pro is key, and hopefully the RB's are successful in blitz pickup.  Give Ben 3 seconds, and they will be fine.

3.  Close out.  Score TDs instead of FGs.  Russell is an asset on the goal line, and I expect to see him used there instead of Parker and Moore.

Steelers on Defense

1.  Pressure Rivers.  Kind of obvious...but Woodley needs to establish pressure early to take some attention from Harrison.  Timmons could be key in 3rd down pass rush scenarios.  The coverage units will play as big a role in sacks as the pass rushers.

2.  Beat up Sproles.  He HAS to be tired and sore from last week.  Adrenaline will kick in in the opening of the game, but by the 2nd quarter that will be gone.  The defense needs to hit him hard.  Sproles has a stout heart and is elusive, so it will not be easy.  They also need to funnel Sproles to the middle of the field.  The Steelers cannot afford to have him take the edge.

3.  No big draws or screens.  The Steelers have been burned by some big draws and screens.  They need to pursue properly and take the right angles.

AFC Playoff Prognostication:

Steelers vs. Chargers:  17-10 Steelers

Titans vs Ravens:  23-20 Titans in OT