5 Ain't Enough

Hey guys - check out Lance's podcast titled "5 Ain't Enough".  I enjoy his show twice a week, as do many over at www.postgameheroes.com.  He always has good analysis and grades.

http://whatchatalkinbout.com/?cat=5

Go Steelers!!

Spreading Out the Steelers Defense

OK...here it comes - the recipe for beating the Steelers.  Go 3WR and spread them out.  At least, this is what some analysts, like Charlie Casserly, are saying.  There is a reason for this.  The Patriots have used this scheme in 2003 and 2004 to defeat the Steelers pretty handily.  However, it has not worked very well recently, and here is why:

1.  The Steeler pass rush is much improved this season with Harrison/Woodley/Timmons.  It used to be that the Steelers were a blitzing defense (Blitzburgh), especially in the 90's.  This squad can get pressure with only 4 rushers, leaving 7 to cover.  They come from different angles, but most of the time (75%) Lebeau sends 4. We'll talk about coverage schemes later...this point is about pressure with 4.  The pressure usually requires a RB or TE to help out blocking.  So, this leaves 4 guys in the pattern against 7 defenders.  When a RB or TE stays in to block, this frees up a defender to free lance or to double.  This caused Polamalu's big INT vs the Ravens.  He was man up against Heap, who stayed in to block.  This freed up Troy to read Flacco, and get the pick 6.

2.  The Steelers corners are much better, particularly the depth.  Taylor can cover the best WRs in man coverage.  Townsend can take the number two, and McFadden can cover the 3rd WR.  This leaves Gay for dime alignments.  Usually, the Steelers had one good corner, one average corner, and one that looked like burnt toast.  Not this squad - they have the depth to hang.

3.  The Steelers most often use a 2-4-5 set to counter 3WR sets. The Steelers have two guys that really make a big difference in coverage in this alignment:  Polamalu and Timmons.  Timmons has the speed to chase down RBs and WRs, or to come on the pass rush.  We all know what Troy does.  These two have the speed to erase coverage mistakes.

4.  Tomlin has brought a lot of cover 2 to the defensive schemes, and his experience as a D-back coach has paid dividends.  Lebeau still has the overloads and zone blitz schemes, but now they are backed with DBs playing lights-out cover 2 or cover 3.

Notice that the Patriots did not have much success passing with spreading the Steelers out (they had a couple big draws though).  No team has had consistent success.  Not Dallas, SD, NE or any other offense.  The Steelers have shut down Moss, Welker, Andre Johnson, T.O., Housh, Ocho Cinco, and Plexico.  Fitz and Boldin are a special pair, so the Steelers have their work cut out for them.  I think though, that they can slow down the Cards passing game enough to win, even if the Cards spread them out.

Super Bowl!!!

Congrats to the Steelers for winning the AFCC game over the Ravens.  A few observations:

1.  Troy is so clutch.

2.  Holmes is turning into a very dangerous receiver when he gets into space.

3.  The o-line and RBs are doing a better job with blitz pickup.  A lot of the pressure on Ben was the result of scheme (more rushers than blockers)...except for Suggs 3-man rush sack.

4.  The Steelers got good pressure by rushing only 4.

5.  The refs stunk.

Looking forward to the Cardinals

There are a lot of analysts talking about the edge that Whisenhut gets over the Steelers because of his familiarity with the defense and the offense.  Well - doesn't that knife cut both ways?  Lebeau faced Whisenhut in practice too.  The Steelers offense knows the tendencies of Ken's play calling too, especially his gadget plays.  They know when he'll call the gadget (between the 50 and 40 of the opponent).  So, I think it is an even field...except Whiz does not know what Tomlin might try to do.

The Eagles amped up the pressure on the second half, and that produced better results than the first.  Philly spent a lot of time in coverage in the first half, and that will not work against such a good QB and receivers.  Do you know Fitzgerald's weakness?  He doesn't play defense.  IOW, he can't hurt you when he is sitting on the sideline.  Here are keys to the game:

Defense

1.  Make the Cards into a one dimensional team by shutting down the run early.  I do not think Edge has the speed or cut-back ability to hurt the Steelers consistently.

2.  Pressure Warner.  He's not very mobile, so that helps.  Look for the Steelers to rush 4 men, maybe 5, but to do so from different angles.  They will need to keep 6-7 men back in coverage for Fitzgerald and Co.  If the Steelers can get pressure with 4, then they can win this game easily.

3.  Don't bite on the trick play - because Whiz will run one.

Offense

1.  Establish the run and control the ball.  That will be a tough task as the Cardinals have tightened up against the run.  In the regular season, they gave up 110 yds per game.  In the playoffs, they surrendered 77 yds.

2.  Control the clock.  Leave the Cards offense on the bench.  This can be accomplished by passing well on 3rd down, as well as running the ball.

3.  Put up 24 points.

The Steelers have too much defense and experience.  Prior knowledge will not play a big role in this game, as it is on both sides of the ball.

Pick:  Steelers 27-Cards 20

Ravens...Strike 3!!!

Nice win over the Chargers.  Now we look at the Ravens.  Here is why the Steelers will win:

1.  The Steelers are healthy and more rested.  The Ravens will be missing Samari Rolle.  The Ravens had 10 players on the injured list on January 10th.  All were questionable with one player, Barnes, listed as out.  They are not healthier after playing the Titans.

2.  The Steeler recievers are better than the Ravens secondary.  Ed Reed is amazing, but the Baltimore corners are suspect in coverage.  It is always about how well the Steelers pass against Baltimore.

3.  Flacco is a rookie and has not played well in the playoffs.  He's avoided the turnovers so far, but he's only completed 44% of his passes.  I think the Steelers defense can force Flacco into one or two turnovers.  In a championship game, I'll go with the QB that has been there and done won it (and lost it too...).

Prognostication:

Steelers over Ravens:  24-13

Cardinals over Eagles:  30-24

OK..I haven't posted in a while

So to catch up - here goes:

1.  Right on the Steelers beating Baltimore...but way off in how it would play out.  10-4.

2.  Right on the loss to the Titans.  11-4.

3.  Right on the victory against the hapless Browns.  12-4.

A few people thought I was crazy to pick the Steelers going 11-5 this year with the tough schedule, but that was even conservative.  A 12-4 season HAS to be considered an huge accomplishment for the Tomlin and the Steelers.

Looking to the Chargers:

If the Steelers offense can get going, and I said "IF", then this should be a 10 point victory.  If not, then look for a 2-6 point game.

Steelers on Offense

1.  The I-formation.  Willie likes it.  I like it.  They HAVE to get the running game going.  The Steelers need to run for 90+ yards to make SD respect the line of scrimmage.  They will double team Williams on the inside with Hartwig/Colon or Hartwig/Stapleton.  This is why a FB in the hole is most valuable.  He can pick up someone in the gap and turn a 0 yard run into a 3 yd gain.  Gotta run with a FB 75% of the run plays.

2.  The Chargers secondary has struggled this year and is at the bottom of the league in pass yardage.  I do not think they can stop Ward/Holmes/Miller/Washington consistently.  Pass pro is key, and hopefully the RB's are successful in blitz pickup.  Give Ben 3 seconds, and they will be fine.

3.  Close out.  Score TDs instead of FGs.  Russell is an asset on the goal line, and I expect to see him used there instead of Parker and Moore.

Steelers on Defense

1.  Pressure Rivers.  Kind of obvious...but Woodley needs to establish pressure early to take some attention from Harrison.  Timmons could be key in 3rd down pass rush scenarios.  The coverage units will play as big a role in sacks as the pass rushers.

2.  Beat up Sproles.  He HAS to be tired and sore from last week.  Adrenaline will kick in in the opening of the game, but by the 2nd quarter that will be gone.  The defense needs to hit him hard.  Sproles has a stout heart and is elusive, so it will not be easy.  They also need to funnel Sproles to the middle of the field.  The Steelers cannot afford to have him take the edge.

3.  No big draws or screens.  The Steelers have been burned by some big draws and screens.  They need to pursue properly and take the right angles.

AFC Playoff Prognostication:

Steelers vs. Chargers:  17-10 Steelers

Titans vs Ravens:  23-20 Titans in OT

9-4 - and the Ravens!

STH goes 9-4 on the season prognostication.  Let's look at the Ravens match up:

Most people are picking a low scoring game of attrition.  While this will be a violent game, it will have plenty of offense.

When the Steelers are on O

1.  You don't run on the Ravens, unless you are the Giants. The Steelers typically do not run well against the Ravens.  Parker has been stymied by the Ravens.  The Steelers running game will average 3.0-3.4 yards per carry for 18-24 carries.  They just need to keep the Ravens honest on D.  If they get just one big play in the run game, that will be a bonus.

2.  The Steelers typically pass well against the Ravens, when Ben is not getting his clock cleaned.  Protection is huge in this game, but not throwing INTs is even bigger.  The Steelers WRs and TEs can work against the suspect Ravens secondary (Reed excluded).  Homes and Ward should have good games against the starting corners.  Washington should have a good game working against the nickle corner.   The Steelers need to hang points on this D early, and make Flacco come from behind.  Look for Holmes and Washington deep in the 1st half.  After getting a lead, the Steelers need to dink and dunk with some runs mixed in to bleed the clock and keep the D fresh.  If the Steelers surrender 2 sacks or less, then they'll blow this game open.

When the Steelers are on D

1.  McLain is the most dangerous back on the Ravens vs the Steelers.  Rice is out, and McGahee is OK.  The Steelers typically shut down power running games, and they need to against the Ravens.  They need to make the Ravens O one dimensional.  If the Steelers can keep the number of Ravens runs to under 25, they stand a good chance of winning.  If the Ravens get over 25 carries, that means they are controlling the ball and tiring the Steeler D.

2.  Flacco is a very good rookie, and the Steelers cannot afford to think he'll play like one (or like Romo).  He plays very well with Mason, and that will be the challenge for the Steelers. In 3rd and 6-10, Mason will be the #1 option.  The Steelers need to shut him down on 3rd to force the punt.  If the Steelers can get 4 or more sacks, then they will stymie the Ravens D and create key  turnovers.  If they can't pressure Flacco, he'll make some plays.  Look for a new offensive wrinkle from Cam Cameron this game.

Wrap-up

This game comes down to who passes the best.  I'll go with Ben and the Steelers receivers over Flacco and the Ravens receivers.  Look for big plays in the first half, and look for Flacco to turn the ball over in the second half as he tries to play catch-up.

In the preseason prognostication I said this:

It seems the Ravens are therapeutic for the Steelers.  I think Flacco will be starting by this time in the season, and they abuse the rookie.  Steelers 34-10 with a 10-4 record.

 

The Ravens are better than expected at this point.  I still think the Steelers win this going away:  27-13 Steelers.

STH happily is 8-4

Woo hoo!!  Big, dominating win over the Patsies.  Gotta love it!

Looking forward to the Cowboys at Heinz Field:

Steelers with the ball

The Dallas 3-4 is an interesting thing.  The DL is not very big, especially at the NT position.  Ratliff is 6-4, 305.  This is a stark contrast to guys like Hampton, Wilfork, Jenkins, Shaun Rogers, Jamal Williams...you get it...BIG NTs in the AFC.  All of these guys are 330+.  The interior OL should feel like it is getting a break this week.

The Steelers offense will need to take advantage of a couple of things:  a smaller middle of the defense, average ILBs and a weak secondary.

The running game should be effective up the middle and between the G/T gap.  I think Hartwig and Kemo can get plenty of push straight off of the ball to be effective.  Also, pulling the opposite G into the G/T gap should create numbers, assuming the pulling side T can get a good backside seal.  Colon and Starks are good run blockers, so this plays to the Steelers pretty well.

Although the Cowboys get Pacman back for this game, I think the Dallas secondary is challenged.  Newman has shown that he can have a bad game.  Henry is nothing special.  Pacman does help when the Steelers go the 3WR set, as Washington will not be able to abuse the nickel corner.  The Dallas safeties are nothing special, even when "Roy Weeams" was not injured.  The Dallas ILBs are average in coverage.  The combination of Ward, Holmes, Miller, Washington, Spaeth and Moore should present plenty of opportunities in the passing game, assuming Ben has protection.

Ware has the lion's share of sacks for the Cowboys, so Parker, Moore and Davis will need to help Starks with the chip.  The rest of the sacks are sprinkled pretty evenly among the other Dallas D players.  The OL has to keep Ratliff from applying pressure up the middle, and has to pick up the blitz.

If the OL can run block like they did against the Pats, and can provide 3-4 seconds for Ben to throw, then the Steelers O should put up 24-28 points.

Dallas with the ball

Romo is a good QB.  However, he has also shown the ability for the real bone-headed play.  With the Dallas running game completely shut down, Dallas will have to pass to move the ball.  They have the weapons in T.O., Roy Williams, Crayton and Witten.

Dallas will try to run in the 1st half, with little results.  Even if Barber is healthy, he would not be effective.  This D is geared to stopping power backs.  No dice for Dallas.

When passing, I think the Steelers D has the advantage.  Tomlin's influence has created better coverage in Lebeau's defense.  With the addition of Timmons in the nickel, the middle of the defense has a LOT more speed to negate guys like Witten.  Harrison will wreak his typical havoc against Adams.  Woodley vs. Columbo goes to Woodley.  With Polamalu going off and Clark playing solid, there is very little room to pass the ball, and very little time to read the defense.  The one concern to watch is Romo's scrambling ablity, but that can't be a offensive game plan.  Romo and T.O. will be frustrated by the 2nd quarter, and will make mistakes.

Look for Dallas to put up 10-14 points.

Pre-season progostication was Steelers 20-13.  Sounds close, but I think the Steelers will put up more than 20.