Sorry about not posting Week 2....life is crazy at times.
I am certainly pleased about the state of the Steelers through 2 weeks. I thought they might be 1-1, and I figured they would be competitive. Obviously, the offense is deficient without Ben. Some folks are saying that this defense looks as good as the 2008 version. I disagree. I think it is better. There have been upgrades in a lot of different areas:
1. MLB - Timmons is much better than Foote ever could have been. He is all over and is making impact plays. The speed in the middle is now outstanding. It used to be that the Buck position didn't have much speed...but no longer. Having Foote back creates wonderful depth too. He's not a slouch, but Timmons is so talented.
2. OLB - Woodley is much better than the 2008 version, and Harrison looks the same. So, the outside pass rush is even better 2 years later.
3. DL depth - Hood can come in and get quality minutes to spell Smith and Keisel. In short yardage packages, he's been a stud. He also provides a nice active inside pass rush. I look for Ziggy to get a lot more time by the end of the year.
TB's Offense
This is a young offense lead by a young QB. I like Josh Freeman a lot. I think he has a strong arm, throws a nice deep ball and has good mobility. He has good weapons in Winslow, Cadillac and Mike Williams. Winslow's effectiveness will be interesting to watch as he nurses a knee injury and did not practice. Same for center Jeff Faine who has an ankle injury. Look for the Steelers to provide pressure from the middle against Faine.
I think, unfortunately for Tampa, that the Steeler defense will be too much. Now, Tampa can control how this game looks. If Freeman gets frustrated and makes silly throws, then this game is going to landslide on Tampa. However, if Freeman is patient, is willing to play a field position game and is OK with punting and not making the mistake, then this could be a very close game. In that instance, it might go down to the last possession. Tampa has to do things out of the ordinary to get Lebeau's defense off-balance. I just don't see it happening.
Bottom Line: Tampa scores twice for less than 10 points.
TB's Defense
Tampa runs a 4-3 Cover 2 scheme, and they've been pretty stingy against Cleveland and Carolina. Those two opponents aren't offensive juggernauts...but the Steelers aren't right now either. The DL is average. The LBs are average. The CBs are the strength of the Tampa defense. We'll how rookie McCoy matches up with Pouncey. This defense is not sack crazy, so hopefully the o-line will be able to provide some time for Batch. Starks comes back this week, and that will make the LT position a little better.
The Steeler offense has to find some way to manufacture passing yards to take some pressure off the run game. Bubble screens, quick hitters to Heath...something positive. I'd like to see a deep pass to Wallace early on to set the tone - even if it goes incomplete. If they can do that, just keep the defense honest, the run game should open up nicely.
Bottom Line: Steelers score at least 16 points.
16-9 Steelers
Steelers 3-0
Steelhead
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Friday, September 10, 2010
Week 1 Pre-game Analysis
Obviously, the big issue is not having Ben. So, let's just acknowledge that, and get it out of the way. While Ben is, in my opinion, a future Hall of Fame QB, there are other players that can win on this team. The Steelers be fine through the first 4 weeks.
Let's look at Atlanta - what they do well, and how the Steelers match up on offense and defense.
Atlanta's Offense
The big four are Ryan, Turner, To-Go and Roddy White. WR Jenkins might not play due to a shoulder injury as he did not practice during the week.
This offense cannot go toe to toe with the Steelers defense. It is simply not physical enough. Look for a lot of redirection and moving the pocket to buy Ryan some extra time and to keep the middle blitz from being effective. During the run game, Atlanta will attack the edge (off-guard and off-tackle runs) with Turner. Turner is a fast guy, but he is not a foreign entity to the Steelers. They shut him down when he was with SD, and I expect the Steelers D to control him on Sunday. Woodley and Deebo have to control the edge.
The Steelers need to control Gonzales as he takes the seam. In the past, this was like kryptonite for the Steelers D. However, I look for Timmons and Troy to control this type of pattern and to make Tony really work to get open. This leaves Ike on White, which I think will be a wash. Look for 5 catches, 50-70 yds for White. Due to injury, Altanta's WR depth is not adequate to challenge the Steeler 2-4-5 package or the dime package.
The big advantage on defense for the Steelers are the OT/OLB matchups. Atlanta's OTs cannot matchup with Silverback and Woodley one on one. With To-Go running routes, that leaves RBs or FBs to chip and pick up free rushers in pass pro. I like the Steeler pass rush in this one. Look for at least 3 sacks.
Bottom Line: Atlanta scores three times for 13 points.
Atlanta's Defense
Atlanta runs a 4-3 with good edge rushers in Abraham and Biermann. The DTs are nothing exceptional, with Jerry having unknown upside coming into his 2nd season. The LB corps is just OK, with Lofton being the tackling machine @ MLB, aging Peterson at the Sam LB and rookie Witherspoon at the Will LB. The secondary is weak at strong safety and the corner spot opposite Dunta Robinson. Depth @ CB is not that good. Last year, this unit was 28th against the pass. They are lucky Ben is not in.
The Steelers have advantages at WR, TE and running up the middle. They need to be cautious in pass pro with Abraham and Biermann, and need to provide support for the OTs from time to time. Like Atlanta, but for different reasons, look for the Steelers to move the QB around. If someone on D has to spy Dixon, then that leaves on less body in coverage.
Robinson should cover Wallace, and I think Wallace can exploit him. With Robinson's recovering hamstring, it will be a tough day trying to hang with Wallace's speed. Look for Atlanta to roll a safety over top of Wallace consistently. If they don't, they'll pay. Ward should be able to turn Grimes or Williams around enough to be a consistent chain mover, and provide open looks to Dixon in the red zone. Heath can do whatever he wants in the middle. The big limiter here is Dixon's decision making. If he takes what the defense gives, and is patient, he'll win this game. I look for Dixon to throw 20-25 times for about 180-240 yards.
Mendenhall should have a decent game if he holds on to the ball. Atlanta will be looking for it. If Pouncey can get to Lofton consistently, then the Steelers should have a stellar day on the ground. If Pouncey gets caught up in the trash, or gets controlled by the DTs, then that will limit production...but not completely. I anticipate 20-25 carries for 90-110 yards from Mendy.
Bottom Line: Steelers score four times and hang at least 24 points on Atlanta. Once score is due to great field position from a turnover.
24-13 Steelers
Steelers 1-0
This will be a fun one to watch.
Steelhead
Let's look at Atlanta - what they do well, and how the Steelers match up on offense and defense.
Atlanta's Offense
The big four are Ryan, Turner, To-Go and Roddy White. WR Jenkins might not play due to a shoulder injury as he did not practice during the week.
This offense cannot go toe to toe with the Steelers defense. It is simply not physical enough. Look for a lot of redirection and moving the pocket to buy Ryan some extra time and to keep the middle blitz from being effective. During the run game, Atlanta will attack the edge (off-guard and off-tackle runs) with Turner. Turner is a fast guy, but he is not a foreign entity to the Steelers. They shut him down when he was with SD, and I expect the Steelers D to control him on Sunday. Woodley and Deebo have to control the edge.
The Steelers need to control Gonzales as he takes the seam. In the past, this was like kryptonite for the Steelers D. However, I look for Timmons and Troy to control this type of pattern and to make Tony really work to get open. This leaves Ike on White, which I think will be a wash. Look for 5 catches, 50-70 yds for White. Due to injury, Altanta's WR depth is not adequate to challenge the Steeler 2-4-5 package or the dime package.
The big advantage on defense for the Steelers are the OT/OLB matchups. Atlanta's OTs cannot matchup with Silverback and Woodley one on one. With To-Go running routes, that leaves RBs or FBs to chip and pick up free rushers in pass pro. I like the Steeler pass rush in this one. Look for at least 3 sacks.
Bottom Line: Atlanta scores three times for 13 points.
Atlanta's Defense
Atlanta runs a 4-3 with good edge rushers in Abraham and Biermann. The DTs are nothing exceptional, with Jerry having unknown upside coming into his 2nd season. The LB corps is just OK, with Lofton being the tackling machine @ MLB, aging Peterson at the Sam LB and rookie Witherspoon at the Will LB. The secondary is weak at strong safety and the corner spot opposite Dunta Robinson. Depth @ CB is not that good. Last year, this unit was 28th against the pass. They are lucky Ben is not in.
The Steelers have advantages at WR, TE and running up the middle. They need to be cautious in pass pro with Abraham and Biermann, and need to provide support for the OTs from time to time. Like Atlanta, but for different reasons, look for the Steelers to move the QB around. If someone on D has to spy Dixon, then that leaves on less body in coverage.
Robinson should cover Wallace, and I think Wallace can exploit him. With Robinson's recovering hamstring, it will be a tough day trying to hang with Wallace's speed. Look for Atlanta to roll a safety over top of Wallace consistently. If they don't, they'll pay. Ward should be able to turn Grimes or Williams around enough to be a consistent chain mover, and provide open looks to Dixon in the red zone. Heath can do whatever he wants in the middle. The big limiter here is Dixon's decision making. If he takes what the defense gives, and is patient, he'll win this game. I look for Dixon to throw 20-25 times for about 180-240 yards.
Mendenhall should have a decent game if he holds on to the ball. Atlanta will be looking for it. If Pouncey can get to Lofton consistently, then the Steelers should have a stellar day on the ground. If Pouncey gets caught up in the trash, or gets controlled by the DTs, then that will limit production...but not completely. I anticipate 20-25 carries for 90-110 yards from Mendy.
Bottom Line: Steelers score four times and hang at least 24 points on Atlanta. Once score is due to great field position from a turnover.
24-13 Steelers
Steelers 1-0
This will be a fun one to watch.
Steelhead
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