Steel Town Heroes

Let's Talk About Head Trauma

2010-10-19T23:25:00.000-04:00

The big hits over the weekend seem to have taken center stage for the NFL fans and the league. I'll leave those individual hits alone, as they are covered ad nauseum in other places.

Let's talk about the Steeler history with head trauma. Let's start with Mike Webster, who is arguably the best center ever to wear Black and Gold. His story ends sadly, as he dies wrapped in homelessness and solitude. ESPN covers Iron Mike and his condition best:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=1972285

Terry Long, who played OG, died in 2005 after drinking anti-freeze. His autopsy revealed a "punch drunk" brain caused by repeated head trauma from playing football. Boxers often suffer from chronic encephalopathy from repeated blows to the head. As an aside, I believe the boxing "10-count" adds to this. After enough trauma has been delivered to stagger a man, repeated trauma after that is just asking for trouble...even if you wait for a few second before re-starting the fight.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2307003

Long, as well as Webster, played OL. Surely, there couldn't be a third Steeler offensive lineman to succumb to the effect of head trauma. Could there?

Enter one Justin Strzelczyk. An odd character who I remember best for wearing a German helmet. I also remember him for playing hard-nosed football in the 90s. Note Bettis' comment. Justin would puke in the huddle, and it probably wasn't from the exertion. He played with everything he had. Justin died in a fiery crash as he fled from police for a traffic violation.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_257181.html

Running from the cops seems like something Pacman would do. Not Justin. Until you factor in the head trauma and the attendant problems with rational decision making.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/15/sports/football/15brain.html?_r=1

Add to this Merrill Hoge's experiences with head trauma. He actually stopped breathing after two concussions a few weeks apart. He suffered memory loss, forgot how to read and had other cognitive problems.

http://www.gatorsports.com/article/20091001/ARTICLES/910029997/1136?Title=Dangers-of-a-concussion&tc=ar

So, what's my point here? The recent high profile hits have the NFL in a regulatory tizzy, but this is really a fraud. A cover. It is brand management and public relations. The NFL feels that it can't let these go by or moms and girlfriends everywhere will put the NFL into the same category as MMA. However, if the NFL really cared about head trauma, they'd pay attention to offensive linemen and defensive linemen. These guys bang heads, literally, every play. Have you ever seen the NFL seriously address the trench position head trauma as seriously as they address the QB and receiver? Yeah - me neither.

Steelhead

The Browns and the Race vs the Ravens

2010-10-15T22:46:00.000-04:00

Let's look at the Ravens, and how the loss prior to the bye affects the first half of the year. The next three weeks look like this for the Ravens:

6	Sun, Oct 17	@ New England	1:00 PM ET
7	Sun, Oct 24	Buffalo	1:00 PM ET
8	Bye

The next three weeks look like this for the Steelers:

6	Oct 17	CLE @ PIT

7	Oct 24	PIT @ MIA

8	Oct 31	PIT @ NO

At 4-1 and with a head to head advantage, the Ravens control the division. The game at NE will be tough. I'm not so sure that the Ravens will win in Foxboro. I think the Pats will have a plan to take advantage of the Ravens through the air, and will make this game very close. Look for the Pats to spread the field and make the Ravens chase inside out.

The game against Buffalo should be an easy win for the Ravens...unless they overlook them. That's probably not going to happen.

I look for the Ravens to enter the bye at 5-2.

The Steelers have two tough road games against Miami and New Orleans. These looked worse at the start of the year, but Miami plays good defense and New Orleans' offense can catch fire quickly. If they enter the two away games at 4-1, then they stand a good chance to enter week at 5-2...potentially 6-1 if things go right.

Cleveland
I was at that last game in Cleveland - the -10F - game (OK...I exaggerate...but it was COLD). I had to listen to Browns fans act like tools. Some idiot behind me kept screaming "Da Raidahhhs". He was a typical Cleveland fan. I know the Steelers remember that game...I just hope Arians' is not as brain dead.

The Browns Offense
With McCoy starting, I anticipate a very conservative game plan from the Browns. I think McCoy will throw 10-15 times maximum to limit turnovers. The big challenge will be Cribbs running the Wildcat. The Steelers did not stop this scheme in the December loss, and they will see it until they stop it.

Look for McCoy's throws to be very safe. Screens, short ins, slants and the like. I think most of the throws past the line of scrimmage will be inside the hash marks. A deep out will not be the staple of this offense this week. It will be interesting to see if the Steelers CBs play the inside technique, and if we see dropping DEs to counter the inside throws. The Browns will try to run Hillis, but he's banged up and running on the Steelers out of a normal formation is so hard.

With Cribbs running the Wildcat, and with McCoy on the sideline, the Browns pick up an extra blocker. This is going to be the difference in the game. If the Steelers can't stop the Wildcat, it will be a long day. I'll give the Browns this - they play very physically. This will be a physical game, and the Steelers D must rise up and stop Cribbs and Co.

Look for three scores for less than 14 points.

Browns Defense
With Ben back, this offense will be on the grow. However, I don't anticipate mid-season form from Ben and Co. It will be better than Batch or Dixon, but it won't be lights out efficiency. The Browns D ranks 21st in the league.

Mendy and the run game should be productive, especially as the passing threat is now back. I look for some 1st down throws and a pass dominant first drive. After the pass is established, a good 55/45 mix of run and pass should develop.

The Browns secondary is over-matched by the Steeler receiver corps: Ward, Wallace, Mendy, ARE and Miller. With Sanders getting a ST hat, he'll get some good time at the 4WR position. Hopefully, he'll make some good plays. What the Steelers really need to focus on is pass protection. The December Defeat was scarred by 8 sacks. Unacceptable. The OL must be smart. The OC must put the team in position to have success. The Browns can't stop the Steelers if the Steelers call a smart game, but the Browns can take advantage of mistakes and make the Steelers pay if they aren't smart.

Look for 4 scores for more than 17 points.

20-9 Steelers and a satisfying 4-1.

Steelhead

Ravens Week!!

2010-10-02T21:29:00.000-04:00

Let's look back at the win in TB before moving forward.

1. Batch played well, but those two deep balls were really gambles. Don't think that those types of throws will consistently work against the Ravens - even without Reed.

2. The run game looked excellent. That is the big story coming out of the win @ TB. The rush average was stellar, and they closed the game out in the second half with time consuming drives based on the run. Get the lead with the pass - salt the game away with the run. Sounds awfully familiar...

3. What can you say about the defense? The best in the league.

Now - let's look at Sunday.

The Ravens Offense
The Ravens offense is rarely prolific against the Steeler D, especially in Pittsburgh. Will that change with a slew of new weapons? No. This offense is averaging about 14 points per game with the entire starting offense in place. The premier weapon for the Ravens vs Pittsburgh is Ray Rice. His running ability and agility is space is exceptional. I expect Timmons to completely contain Rice, if he plays. Timmons has quietly stifled opponent running games and his speed and explosiveness can match Rice in the flat.

~~Bert~~ Flacco has never excelled against the Steelers in the pass, and I don't expect that to change. With a combination of pass rush and games in coverage, Lebeau's unit will frustrate Flacco all day. I look for Woodley to abuse Yanda routinely, which will force Baltimore to slide protection to the right. This will leave Silverback with a one-on-one with Oher. Look for further abuse there too. This is why Boldin won't be a huge difference maker. They can't protect both sides and still pressure the secondary.

When the Ravens go into the unbalanced offensive set, that use to be a strength. The Steelers can counter with a four DL unit by adding Ziggy to the starting three DL and pulling out a CB (not needed). I don't think that this set will be consistently successful against the Steelers.

Bottom line: Ravens score three times for less than 14 points.

Ravens Defense
This defense feasted on Sanchez, Palmer and Wallace. They did not contain Hillis. They have produced only 1 turn over in three games. Pardon me if I'm not impressed yet. I think the Ravens defense is ripe for abuse this week. Keep in mind that the Steelers have done it before to this defense. Without Reed and with a bit of a banged up defense, there are holes to be exploited. The running game for the Steelers will not be hugely effective. If the Steelers can average 3.5-4.0 yds per carry, that will be enough to keep Baltimore honest. Carr and Washington will struggle against Wallace and Ward.

With Batch in, look for the pass to dominate the play calling. This is how to beat the Ravens - you can't make a living running on them. You need to pass to set up the occasional run. With Ward, Wallace, Heath and Mendy, there will be more than enough options to break the secondary. I think pass protection will be good enough to buy time for the short passing game, and an occasional deep ball.

Bottom line: Steelers score four times for less than 24 points.

20-13 Steelers and they enter the bye @ a remarkable 4-0.

Steelhead

Week 3 - vs the Bucs

2010-09-23T22:15:00.000-04:00

Sorry about not posting Week 2....life is crazy at times.

I am certainly pleased about the state of the Steelers through 2 weeks. I thought they might be 1-1, and I figured they would be competitive. Obviously, the offense is deficient without Ben. Some folks are saying that this defense looks as good as the 2008 version. I disagree. I think it is better. There have been upgrades in a lot of different areas:

1. MLB - Timmons is much better than Foote ever could have been. He is all over and is making impact plays. The speed in the middle is now outstanding. It used to be that the Buck position didn't have much speed...but no longer. Having Foote back creates wonderful depth too. He's not a slouch, but Timmons is so talented.

2. OLB - Woodley is much better than the 2008 version, and Harrison looks the same. So, the outside pass rush is even better 2 years later.

3. DL depth - Hood can come in and get quality minutes to spell Smith and Keisel. In short yardage packages, he's been a stud. He also provides a nice active inside pass rush. I look for Ziggy to get a lot more time by the end of the year.

TB's Offense

This is a young offense lead by a young QB. I like Josh Freeman a lot. I think he has a strong arm, throws a nice deep ball and has good mobility. He has good weapons in Winslow, Cadillac and Mike Williams. Winslow's effectiveness will be interesting to watch as he nurses a knee injury and did not practice. Same for center Jeff Faine who has an ankle injury. Look for the Steelers to provide pressure from the middle against Faine.

I think, unfortunately for Tampa, that the Steeler defense will be too much. Now, Tampa can control how this game looks. If Freeman gets frustrated and makes silly throws, then this game is going to landslide on Tampa. However, if Freeman is patient, is willing to play a field position game and is OK with punting and not making the mistake, then this could be a very close game. In that instance, it might go down to the last possession. Tampa has to do things out of the ordinary to get Lebeau's defense off-balance. I just don't see it happening.

Bottom Line: Tampa scores twice for less than 10 points.

TB's Defense

Tampa runs a 4-3 Cover 2 scheme, and they've been pretty stingy against Cleveland and Carolina. Those two opponents aren't offensive juggernauts...but the Steelers aren't right now either. The DL is average. The LBs are average. The CBs are the strength of the Tampa defense. We'll how rookie McCoy matches up with Pouncey. This defense is not sack crazy, so hopefully the o-line will be able to provide some time for Batch. Starks comes back this week, and that will make the LT position a little better.

The Steeler offense has to find some way to manufacture passing yards to take some pressure off the run game. Bubble screens, quick hitters to Heath...something positive. I'd like to see a deep pass to Wallace early on to set the tone - even if it goes incomplete. If they can do that, just keep the defense honest, the run game should open up nicely.

Bottom Line: Steelers score at least 16 points.

16-9 Steelers

Steelers 3-0

Steelhead

Week 1 Pre-game Analysis

2010-09-10T10:06:00.000-04:00

Obviously, the big issue is not having Ben. So, let's just acknowledge that, and get it out of the way. While Ben is, in my opinion, a future Hall of Fame QB, there are other players that can win on this team. The Steelers be fine through the first 4 weeks.

Let's look at Atlanta - what they do well, and how the Steelers match up on offense and defense.

Atlanta's Offense

The big four are Ryan, Turner, To-Go and Roddy White. WR Jenkins might not play due to a shoulder injury as he did not practice during the week.

This offense cannot go toe to toe with the Steelers defense. It is simply not physical enough. Look for a lot of redirection and moving the pocket to buy Ryan some extra time and to keep the middle blitz from being effective. During the run game, Atlanta will attack the edge (off-guard and off-tackle runs) with Turner. Turner is a fast guy, but he is not a foreign entity to the Steelers. They shut him down when he was with SD, and I expect the Steelers D to control him on Sunday. Woodley and Deebo have to control the edge.

The Steelers need to control Gonzales as he takes the seam. In the past, this was like kryptonite for the Steelers D. However, I look for Timmons and Troy to control this type of pattern and to make Tony really work to get open. This leaves Ike on White, which I think will be a wash. Look for 5 catches, 50-70 yds for White. Due to injury, Altanta's WR depth is not adequate to challenge the Steeler 2-4-5 package or the dime package.

The big advantage on defense for the Steelers are the OT/OLB matchups. Atlanta's OTs cannot matchup with Silverback and Woodley one on one. With To-Go running routes, that leaves RBs or FBs to chip and pick up free rushers in pass pro. I like the Steeler pass rush in this one. Look for at least 3 sacks.

Bottom Line: Atlanta scores three times for 13 points.

Atlanta's Defense

Atlanta runs a 4-3 with good edge rushers in Abraham and Biermann. The DTs are nothing exceptional, with Jerry having unknown upside coming into his 2nd season. The LB corps is just OK, with Lofton being the tackling machine @ MLB, aging Peterson at the Sam LB and rookie Witherspoon at the Will LB. The secondary is weak at strong safety and the corner spot opposite Dunta Robinson. Depth @ CB is not that good. Last year, this unit was 28th against the pass. They are lucky Ben is not in.

The Steelers have advantages at WR, TE and running up the middle. They need to be cautious in pass pro with Abraham and Biermann, and need to provide support for the OTs from time to time. Like Atlanta, but for different reasons, look for the Steelers to move the QB around. If someone on D has to spy Dixon, then that leaves on less body in coverage.

Robinson should cover Wallace, and I think Wallace can exploit him. With Robinson's recovering hamstring, it will be a tough day trying to hang with Wallace's speed. Look for Atlanta to roll a safety over top of Wallace consistently. If they don't, they'll pay. Ward should be able to turn Grimes or Williams around enough to be a consistent chain mover, and provide open looks to Dixon in the red zone. Heath can do whatever he wants in the middle. The big limiter here is Dixon's decision making. If he takes what the defense gives, and is patient, he'll win this game. I look for Dixon to throw 20-25 times for about 180-240 yards.

Mendenhall should have a decent game if he holds on to the ball. Atlanta will be looking for it. If Pouncey can get to Lofton consistently, then the Steelers should have a stellar day on the ground. If Pouncey gets caught up in the trash, or gets controlled by the DTs, then that will limit production...but not completely. I anticipate 20-25 carries for 90-110 yards from Mendy.

Bottom Line: Steelers score four times and hang at least 24 points on Atlanta. Once score is due to great field position from a turnover.

24-13 Steelers

Steelers 1-0

This will be a fun one to watch.

Steelhead

2009-11-03T12:28:00.003-05:00

Steelhead

Draft Thoughts

2009-05-01T10:46:00.002-04:00

Evander Hood

I like his size at DE, being 300lbs. I like his motor and style of play. Will he replace Keisel or Smith? I think this will be Keisel's last year with the Steelers. This is his last year on his contract, and I'm sure the Steelers will want Hood starting next year. Look for Hood to start contributing in the nickle 2-4-5 alignment by week 8. A duo of Hood and Smith would give a nice balance of run stopping and interior pass rush. This means Hood would be stealing playing time from Keisel - very similar to the Timmons/Foote scenario.

Kraig Urbik

Big and nasty - I love it! Look for Urbik to challenge for the RG position in camp. If Urbik picks up the zone blocking scheme and playbook, I think he'll be more effective than Stapleton for Week 1. Wisconsin OL prospects do very well in the NFL, and I expect Urbik to excel in the Steelers scheme. The interior running game should improve with him in the lineup, however, his big learning curve will be in pass pro, blitz recognition and stunt pickups.

Mike Wallace

For the love of Pete, all he has to do is make the team as a kick returner. His primary competition, Gary Russell, was cut already. Any production at WR would be bonus. All he has to do is catch the ball and get past the 20 on KO returns, and not fumble punts. The kid has speed, so if the ST unit can get him a crease, it could be very fun to watch.

Keenan Lewis

Kind of reminds me of Ike with less speed and identical hands. Might be a free safety eventually, as Clark is in his last contract year, and Lewis has the size.

Joe Burnett

Too small for a Steelers corner, and doesn't have very good speed. Maybe a good punt return guy, but reminds me of Willie Reid...and we know how that turned out. Reid was faster too. Can he make the team by just contributing on ST? I guess we'll find out. I think this is one pick that does not make the team...but contributes on the practice squad.

Frank Summers

I love this pick. I think Frank already took Gary Russell's goaline role. If I were Willie Parker, I'd be worried. With Mendenhall coming back from injury, and Summers taking the short yardage situations, and Moore coming in on 3rd downs...well...what will Willie's role be? I think Parker will be gone in two years, as his primary game is speed, and that will slip eventually. Back to Summers - he is aggressive and physical and has decent speed too. Has really good hands that can create a mismatch with a smaller defender. Think LaRon McLain.

Ra'shon Harris

Eh - practice squad.

A.Q. Shipley

Value pick here, as he will be the backup center as a rookie, and might even start someday. The biggest knock is his short arms. If he can work through that, he will be a decent center for a while...certainly better than Mahan....oops.

David Johnson

Might challenge Spaeth for the 2nd TE spot, and McHugh for the H-back type role. However, he's got his work cut out for him with McHugh. Probably contributes on the practice squad until Spaeth moves on.

A lot of people are grading this draft...I'll wait to see who actually makes the team and contributes. I do like the fact the Steelers brought in talented players at the positions of need.

Steelhead

Free Agency Update and Pre-draft Thoughts

2009-04-22T12:12:00.004-04:00

Free Agency Updates

1. Losing Nate

I'm unsure of the effects of losing Nate Washington. If Sweed steps up, then it is no big deal. If Sweed struggles, then the offense might not be as effective on passing downs. They still have Ward, Holmes, Miller and Moore as good receiving threats. Mendenhall might be a decent receiver out of the backfield, like Moore. However, Sweed has shown that he can get separation against nickle backs. If Ward or Holmes miss playing time due to injury, then Sweed might struggle against starting corners. How will this uncertainty affect the draft? Will the Steelers take another WR at 1.32?

2. Losing McFadden

A good nickle back is no longer a luxury in the NFL. If you want to compete at a high level, the defense has to have 3 solid CBs. The Steelers currently have Ike, Gay and Townsend. These three are good, but an injury might cause issues at depth. This position is a lot like the WR position, in that the starters are good, but depth is needed.

3. Keeping Debo

This is a great deal getting Harrison signed long term. I think that was a necessary thing to do, as he completely outplayed his contract. Good for an Akron boy!

Pre-draft Thoughts

1. Positions with need now

Right guard is the most glaring need on this team right now. Stapleton is a good backup, but as a starter he is not as consistent as you'd like. As the Steelers parted ways with Simmons, this is the position that has the biggest immediate need.

2. Positions with need in 2010

Hartwig, Ward, Clark, Foote, Colon, Starks and Hampton all are playing on their last year of contract in 2009. Ward will be re-signed, as will Big Snack. The question is, how will the Steelers upgrade ILB and C? Timmons is a good ILB, but he needs another young buck next to him. Farrior is no longer at his peak. Will the Steelers re-sign Clark? Will the Steelers re-sign their OTs?

The DE position is getting long in the tooth, so a young buck here would be nice too.

3. Steeler options

The Steelers can draft the best interior lineman available. I like Alex Mack, who can play RG as an immediate upgrade in 2009, and then slide to C in 2010. The kid out of Oregon, Unger, woud be good for this too.

Look for the Steelers to have high priority for drafting the following positions: C/G, WR, CB and DE. Other positional needs are OT, ILB and FS. The Steelers will most likely not draft a QB, TE, RB, FB, SS, OLB and NT.

Steelhead

Steeler OL Update

2009-03-01T20:52:00.003-05:00

With Kemo's re-signing, the projected 2009 OL looks like this:

Starks - Kemo - Hartwig - ? - Colon

Some fans would like to see Colon move to guard, which might happen if they Steelers can get a quality RT in the draft. Or, if not, the Steelers could draft an interior lineman. Stapleton is a good backup, but not exactly what is needed for a starter.

ESPN's McShay has the Steelers taking Eben Britton at 32. Here is a sampling of post-combine rd 1 picks for the Steelers:

McShay - Eben Britton (OT), Arizona

Rob Rang, Prisco and Chad Reuter (CBS) - Eben Britton

Walter Football - Duke Robinson (G), Oklahoma

Most of the other mock drafts have the Steelers taking Eben Britton also. If Britton is gone, the Steelers can look at Alex Mack or Robinson for the interior. Or thay can surprise everyone and take a skill position player.

Steelhead

AFC North Free Agency Updates

2009-02-28T11:55:00.003-05:00

From the bottom up:

Browns

Big news is that Winslow was trades to TB. I think this is a good move by the Browns, as Winslow's act was getting old. They got rid of a bad locker room guy, and got a 2009 2nd and 2010 5th (or so it seems) for him. They need picks badly.

The other big story is that Shawn Rogers and Mangini have some issues. I think that Dutch from Postgameheroes has it right. http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=5799&cpage=1#comment-4333

Bengals

No big news yet. Let's see where TJ lands.

Ravens

Bart Scott is gone to the Jets. Scott is an OK player. He is pretty average at ILB, but I think the Jets want him to be the signal caller for the defense as he knows Ryan's schemes. Not a huge loss for the Ravens, but they'll need to find a way to get another average ILB, or hope one of their backups steps up. I'm sure Scott is relieved to not see Hines Ward twice a year anymore. BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Ray Ray has slowed, and he's not getting many offers from the outside. He's a liability in coverage, and has lost a step. If you run right at him, he's pretty effective. He will probably stay with the Ravens as they have already lost Scott.

Ravens cut McAlister and Leonhard from their secondary.

Steelers

Starks get franchised and Kemo is re-signed. Colon gets a RFA tender. Looks like the only position to be fixed is RG.

Harrison's new deal is not finished yet. We'll see how this works out.

Who knows where Nate and McFadden will land? Good riddance to Anthony Smith.

Steelhead

Steel Curtain Radio #3

2009-02-28T11:51:00.000-05:00

http://media.libsyn.com/media/wtcb/SCR_3.mp3

Steelhead

Leigh Bodden

2009-02-27T10:11:00.005-05:00

As McFadden looks like he's heading away from the Steelers, an option to replace him would be Leigh Bodden. Bodden was cut from the Lions today, and is an UFA. Pro's for Bodden's signing:

1. He knows the AFC North after being on the Browns squad from 2003-2007.

2. He can compete in for the starting CB position with Gay. Townsend, Bodden and Gay competing for that position would be fun to watch.

3. I do not think there would be any appreciable drop off in the secondary.

4. He'd be cheaper than McFadden.

You have to wonder why he was cut from Detroit. Was he really that bad, or was he a casualty of the new regime purge?

I hope the Steelers re-sign McFadden, but Bodden might be a good Plan B if McFadden bolts.

Steelhead

Kendall Simmons is released

2009-02-26T19:20:00.005-05:00

Kendall Simmons has been released. In 2007, he signed a 4 year extension worth $23.1 million. His release will not save the Steelers several million in cap space in 2009, which will not help put together the contract for Silverback. What does this mean for the OL? It means it will get better. Simmons was playing sub-par football prior to his Achilles injury. Stapleton, an average OG, came in and added some stability to the RG position. Look for the Steelers to target the best interior lineman in the draft.

Anthony Smith will become an UFA, as he did not receive a tender. It will be interesting to see if anyone signs him.

Also released is ILB Mike Humpal. He might be re-signed for the practice squad at a later date.

Steelhead

Jeff Saturday to the Steelers?

2009-02-25T11:24:00.002-05:00

Rumor and reports have it that Jeff Saturday, the former center for the Colts, would be OK with being a Steeler. I think this is good, as it may provide some leverage in the Kemo negotiations. It may reduce the price the Steelers have to pay Kemo to keep him. Saturday made $3.5M last year, and is 34 years old. He was an undrafted FA, so his salary history has not been too crazy. Let's look at the pros and cons for signing Saturday:

Pros

1. You know what you are getting from him. Jeff is a known quantity.

2. Jeff has played in the zone blocking scheme that Zierlein likes to run. I'm not a fan of it, but get guys that know it if you are going to do it.

3. He is position flexible in the interior. Jeff is an established center and guard who can certainly pass protect. Pass pro and short yardage situations seemed to be the Achilles heel for the Steelers OL in 2008.

4. He is smart and can make all of the protection adjustments. Currently Ben runs those calls, but it would be good to have another pair of experienced eyes to help him.

5. Hartwig is in the last year of his 2-yr $3.725M deal. This would give some flexibility if Hartwig does not re-sign.

Cons

1. He's 34.

2. He might not want to take a pay cut. I think the Steelers would want to pay him at most $2.7-$3M per year. With Starks and Harrison getting new deals, how much will be left?

3. Jeff has had an increased injury problem the past two years.

The Steelers did sign Hartings when he was 30, but that gave him 6 years with the team. At 34, the Steelers will probably get 2-3 good years from Saturday.

So, my hunch is that the Steelers will not sign Saturday due to his age and injury situation. The Benglas, however, are a team who will overpay for an aging player that will not provide a long term answer.

Steelhead

Starks gets tagged

2009-02-20T09:04:00.007-05:00

So, the Steelers have franchised Starks. The non-exclusive tag will cost around $8.7M if they cannot reach a long term deal. I think some in Steeler Nation will be upset about franchising Starks, but what else could they do? Gross is too expensive, and there realyl are not many FAs that provide a big upgrade over Starks.

This means that keeping Marvel Smith will be difficult, unless he takes a very low salary (maybe even league minimum). I do not think that any other team will look seriously at Smith because of his injury history.

I think that Colon will get an RFA offer that will keep him with the Steelers, at least for one more year.

Here is what we know about the OL through the offseason to date:

Starks - ? - Hartwig - ? - Colon?

What will happen with Kemo and the RG position. Will Simmons return from his Achilles injury? Does that even matter? Will Stapleton play RG again, or will the Steelers sign a FA or draft a guy to plug into RG right away? Will they take Mack with the 32nd pick and move Hartwig to OG? We'll see...

Steelhead

Steel Curtain Radio #2

2009-02-20T09:04:00.001-05:00

http://media.libsyn.com/media/wtcb/SCR2.mp3

Steelhead

Steel Curtan Radio #1

2009-02-12T11:09:00.000-05:00

Get it here:

http://media.libsyn.com/media/wtcb/SCR_1.mp3

Steelhead

Defensive End Prospects

2009-02-09T11:01:00.005-05:00

Let's look at an area of the roster that is getting older. The Smith and Kiesel are pretty good, especially Smith. His domination in the run game was evident in the playoff loss to the Jags. The Steelers struggled to stop the run when he was not playing. Let's look at good 3-4 DE prospects, and what they need to fit the Steeler's system:

1. Size: 6-2 or taller, 275 to 300 lbs. Not a typical DE that is a little lighter in the pants. Steeler DEs are big and powerful, like smaller DTs.

2. Need to be able to handle double teams well. If they get double teamed by the OL, they need to be able to hold the point of attack. A DE in this position will probably not make the tackle, but they will give the ILBs plenty of room to shut down the run.

The prospects:

1. Tyson Jackson 6'4" 295 lbs

McShay grades Jackson out as a 93.

2. Robert Ayers 6'3" 273 lbs

Looks to be a second day pick. Grades out as an 87.

There is really only one prospect that fits the Steeler DE mold and can be a starter in the future. That is Tyson Jackson. The Steelers will probably need to take him at the end of Rd 1, as he will be gone by the 64th pick. Tyson is an established player with a lot of film. He stops the run in dominant fashion, and is an adequate, not dominating, pass rusher. He has no off the field problems.

Jackson is most likely on the draft board as a first pick option for the Steelers.

Steelhead

James Harrison

2009-02-08T12:50:00.003-05:00

Here is a good article from James', and my, hometown paper:

http://www.ohio.com/sports/39277017.html

What a great thought that two of the best Steelers are from Ohio - Ben and Deebo. The fact that the Browns did not sign Deebo when he was available makes his performance even sweeter.

Go Steelers!

Everyone Quit Crying about the SB Officiating

2009-02-06T14:17:00.004-05:00

VP of Officiating Mike Pereira:

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d80e8fa89

Prospects

2009-02-05T12:07:00.004-05:00

The OL prospects are abundant in the 2009 draft. This bodes well for the Steelers, as that seems to be their only weakness on the team. Here are prospects that the Steelers are probably going to watch closely at the combine:

Eben Britton 6'6" 310lbs

Phil Loadholt 6'8" 337lbs

Alex Boone 6'8" 312lbs

Most draft boards have Britton and Loadholt going by the 32nd pick. If the Steelers can re-sign Starks and secure Colon, not too hard with a RFA, then look for an OT in rounds 3-4. I like Alex Boone around there. I do not think that OT is as big a priority as the interior line, although an upgrade at RT would be nice.

Duke Robinson 6'5" 335lbs

Andy Levitre 6'3" 317lbs

Herman Johnson 6'7" 386lbs (!!)

Kraig Urbik 6'6" 332 lbs

There are a few monsters in here at OG. A lot of draft boards have the Steelers taking Duke Robinson with the 32nd pick. That would be fine with me. He looks to be the best OG prospect. Herman Johnson with the 96th pick would be good, but I do not think that he would fit into the Steelers blocking schemes at LG as he has lower mobility...i.e. he has trouble pulling. However, at RG he could be a complete monster in the running game. Urbik is another good RG prospect and would be an assest in the running game. I think this is where the Steelers need to improve the most, at either RG or LG. If the Steelers re-sign Kemo, look for a draft pick to play RG immediately. I do not think Simmons or Stapleton will make the team if that happens.

Alex Mack 6'4" 316lbs

Max Unger 6'5" 300lbs

Antoine Caldwell 6'3" 305lbs

Many draft boards have the Steelers taking Mack with the 32nd pick. There is about a 45/45 spilt between Mack and Robinson. The other 10% has the Steelers taking an OT. Hartwig was adequate at center, but drafting an upgrade might be nice. I think Mack is a great pick at 32. If the Steelers go OG, look for them to take Caldwell in the 3-4th rounds.

The ideal scenario for 4 rounds:

Rd 1: Duke Robinson

Rd 2: Max Unger

Rd. 3: CB or DE

Rd 4: Alex Boone

This is ideal as it permits the Steelers to offer Colon a one year max RFA offer, and to prep Boone at RT in case he looks as good as or better than Colon in pass pro. This puts a stud at RG, assuming Kemo re-signs, or offers his replacement at LG. Unger can play C or compete for the RG position.

The OL might look like this: Starks - Kemo - Hartwig/Unger - Robinson- Colon

Without Kemo: Starks - Robinson - Hartwig - Unger - Colon

Depth: Boone, Hills, Stapelton, Essex

Second Option:

Rd 1: Alex Mack

Rd 2: Herman Johnson

Rd 3: CB orDE

Rd 4: Kraig Urbik

What to do with Hartwig if Mack plays C? This lets the Steelers part with Kemo and put Urbik in his place. Johnson could play RG with Stapleton as depth. Hartwig could provide depth at C/G. Hills and Essex would have to be the depth for OT.

The OL might look like this: Starks - Urbik - Mack - Johnson - Colon

Depth: Hartwig, Stapleton, Hills, Essex

Either way, this draft is coming at the right time for the Steelers, even with the last pick in each round.

Steelhead

Lance Needs To Change The Name of His Show

2009-02-04T08:46:00.003-05:00

http://media.libsyn.com/media/wtcb/5AE_125.mp3

Go listen!

WOW!!

2009-02-03T11:14:00.003-05:00

Awesome game! The Steelers are now the proud owners of SIX championships. Congrats to the Rooneys, the Steeler organization, and all of Steeler Nation.

Now let's look forward to the off-season, free agency and the draft. Here is a positional analysis for the Steelers:

Offense

QB - The QB position is obviously set. The backup position will be interesting though. I think Leftwich will be offered a good contract, and will leave. The Steelers will have Ben, Batch and Dixon on the roster next year.

RB - After spending a 1st round pick on Mendenhall, the Steelers will be OK at RB next year. Look for Moore, Davis and Russell to return. However, Russell might be on the bubble if they do not keep 5 RBs. Hopefully, the goal line offense gets better with Mendenhall. I'd like to see a blocking upgrade at the FB position, but I do not think we'll see that.

WR - Obviously Ward and Holmes will be back. After that, things get interesting. Nate is an UFA after this year, and it is unknown whether he will get an offer worth considering from somewhere else. If Nate thinks Sweed will challenge him for the #3WR spot, and he gets a decent offer, he might be gone. If he stays, the competition at the #3WR spot will be intense. If Sweed matures a bit, the Steelers will have good depth and a formidable 4WR set.

TE - No issues here. Dekker won't be back, but Heath, Spaeth and McHugh will man this position just fine. McHugh will have to be re-signed, but he'll come pretty cheap.

OT - Now things get interesting. I'm 99.9% sure that Marvel will not be re-signed. It is a shame, but his back is just too tweaked to be reliable. Colon is a RFA, so either they'll give him the highest 1 year offer (no one will give up a 1st and a 3rd), or they'll get him into a 3-4 year contract. Starks is an interesting one to watch too. Some people have been clamoring to sign Gross from Carolina, but he'll get the franchise tag. They let Smith walk, so they will try to re-sign Starks for 2-3 years. They will use Essex as the backup LT. The backup RT will depend on the draft, or might just be Hills.

OG - More intrigue. Kemo is up. I think Kemo gets a new contract, but for reasonable money. Hopefully, he works on his pass pro in the off-season. If Simmons comes back well from his Achilles injury, they might NOT re-sign Kemo, and they might move Simmons to LG. Stapleton has done a decent job, but lacks the size and strength to go against big DTs. Good in pass pro. If you could combine Stapleton and Kemo, you'd have a pretty good OG. I think OG is one of the positions that the Steelers will address on the first day of the draft, maybe even Rd 1 if the prospect is good enough.

C - Hartwig has done a good job so far. I think the Steelers will be looking for a future center in the draft, particularly the 1st and 2nd rounds. This happened to Hartwig when Carolina took Kalil.

Defense

DL - The Steelers DL is quality, but is aging. I think they will draft on day 1 here. Roye got his ring and will retire, opening up a roster space. Look for a DE to be taken in rounds 2-3.

OLB - No issues, except for maybe giving Harrison more money. Some of the backups are UFAs, but I do not think that is a big deal as they will be eager to re-sign or will be easily replaced. Hopefully, Bruce Davis can get some things together and contribute next year.

ILB - There are rumors that Foote wants to go to Detroit. I think that would be OK. I think Timmons is now ready to play inside. Timmons is not the ideal mac backer, so look for a player to be drafted for the future mac position. Farrior will stay at the buc position until he retires, and then Timmons will take his spot. Look for Humpal to make it from the practice squad and be a backup ILB. I think Fox gets re-signed for ST and as a backup.

CB - McFadden will not get a big offer as a UFA, and he will be back with the Steelers. Other than some backups and ST players, there will not be a lot of movement here.

S - Anthony Smith is really the question mark here. As a RFA, will he be given an offer? I think so, but he seems to be in Tomlin's doghouse...or at least toward the bottom of the depth chart. when the Steelers use 3 safeties, they insert Carter. Does an OK job on ST though.

Special Teams

K - No changes.

P - Thank goodness Sepulveda comes back. Berger is gone and can retire with a ring. Good for him.

Draft Needs

Here are the Steelers needs:

1. Interior offensive line - Look for the Steelers to get the best C or OG available with the 32nd pick. They might address this need twice on the first day of the draft.

2. DL depth - Look for the Steelers to address this in the 2nd or 3rd round. Look for some late round picks here too.

3. Kick Returner - The return game for the Steelers has no pop. The Steelers need to draft a DB or a WR that can return kicks. Imagine this team if they can get field position past the 35 once or twice a game. Sometimes, they need to flip the field and take pressure off of the defense.

4. MLB - an ideal mac backer.

We'll look at potential FA signings in a late post.

Enjoy the Championship!!

5 Ain't Enough

2009-01-27T16:47:00.003-05:00

Hey guys - check out Lance's podcast titled "5 Ain't Enough". I enjoy his show twice a week, as do many over at www.postgameheroes.com. He always has good analysis and grades.

http://whatchatalkinbout.com/?cat=5

Go Steelers!!

Spreading Out the Steelers Defense

2009-01-21T00:40:00.004-05:00

OK...here it comes - the recipe for beating the Steelers. Go 3WR and spread them out. At least, this is what some analysts, like Charlie Casserly, are saying. There is a reason for this. The Patriots have used this scheme in 2003 and 2004 to defeat the Steelers pretty handily. However, it has not worked very well recently, and here is why:

1. The Steeler pass rush is much improved this season with Harrison/Woodley/Timmons. It used to be that the Steelers were a blitzing defense (Blitzburgh), especially in the 90's. This squad can get pressure with only 4 rushers, leaving 7 to cover. They come from different angles, but most of the time (75%) Lebeau sends 4. We'll talk about coverage schemes later...this point is about pressure with 4. The pressure usually requires a RB or TE to help out blocking. So, this leaves 4 guys in the pattern against 7 defenders. When a RB or TE stays in to block, this frees up a defender to free lance or to double. This caused Polamalu's big INT vs the Ravens. He was man up against Heap, who stayed in to block. This freed up Troy to read Flacco, and get the pick 6.

2. The Steelers corners are much better, particularly the depth. Taylor can cover the best WRs in man coverage. Townsend can take the number two, and McFadden can cover the 3rd WR. This leaves Gay for dime alignments. Usually, the Steelers had one good corner, one average corner, and one that looked like burnt toast. Not this squad - they have the depth to hang.

3. The Steelers most often use a 2-4-5 set to counter 3WR sets. The Steelers have two guys that really make a big difference in coverage in this alignment: Polamalu and Timmons. Timmons has the speed to chase down RBs and WRs, or to come on the pass rush. We all know what Troy does. These two have the speed to erase coverage mistakes.

4. Tomlin has brought a lot of cover 2 to the defensive schemes, and his experience as a D-back coach has paid dividends. Lebeau still has the overloads and zone blitz schemes, but now they are backed with DBs playing lights-out cover 2 or cover 3.

Notice that the Patriots did not have much success passing with spreading the Steelers out (they had a couple big draws though). No team has had consistent success. Not Dallas, SD, NE or any other offense. The Steelers have shut down Moss, Welker, Andre Johnson, T.O., Housh, Ocho Cinco, and Plexico. Fitz and Boldin are a special pair, so the Steelers have their work cut out for them. I think though, that they can slow down the Cards passing game enough to win, even if the Cards spread them out.

Super Bowl!!!

2009-01-19T10:29:00.004-05:00

Congrats to the Steelers for winning the AFCC game over the Ravens. A few observations:

1. Troy is so clutch.

2. Holmes is turning into a very dangerous receiver when he gets into space.

3. The o-line and RBs are doing a better job with blitz pickup. A lot of the pressure on Ben was the result of scheme (more rushers than blockers)...except for Suggs 3-man rush sack.

4. The Steelers got good pressure by rushing only 4.

5. The refs stunk.

Looking forward to the Cardinals

There are a lot of analysts talking about the edge that Whisenhut gets over the Steelers because of his familiarity with the defense and the offense. Well - doesn't that knife cut both ways? Lebeau faced Whisenhut in practice too. The Steelers offense knows the tendencies of Ken's play calling too, especially his gadget plays. They know when he'll call the gadget (between the 50 and 40 of the opponent). So, I think it is an even field...except Whiz does not know what Tomlin might try to do.

The Eagles amped up the pressure on the second half, and that produced better results than the first. Philly spent a lot of time in coverage in the first half, and that will not work against such a good QB and receivers. Do you know Fitzgerald's weakness? He doesn't play defense. IOW, he can't hurt you when he is sitting on the sideline. Here are keys to the game:

Defense

1. Make the Cards into a one dimensional team by shutting down the run early. I do not think Edge has the speed or cut-back ability to hurt the Steelers consistently.

2. Pressure Warner. He's not very mobile, so that helps. Look for the Steelers to rush 4 men, maybe 5, but to do so from different angles. They will need to keep 6-7 men back in coverage for Fitzgerald and Co. If the Steelers can get pressure with 4, then they can win this game easily.

3. Don't bite on the trick play - because Whiz will run one.

Offense

1. Establish the run and control the ball. That will be a tough task as the Cardinals have tightened up against the run. In the regular season, they gave up 110 yds per game. In the playoffs, they surrendered 77 yds.

2. Control the clock. Leave the Cards offense on the bench. This can be accomplished by passing well on 3rd down, as well as running the ball.

3. Put up 24 points.

The Steelers have too much defense and experience. Prior knowledge will not play a big role in this game, as it is on both sides of the ball.

Pick: Steelers 27-Cards 20

Ravens...Strike 3!!!

2009-01-12T14:16:00.003-05:00

Nice win over the Chargers. Now we look at the Ravens. Here is why the Steelers will win:

1. The Steelers are healthy and more rested. The Ravens will be missing Samari Rolle. The Ravens had 10 players on the injured list on January 10th. All were questionable with one player, Barnes, listed as out. They are not healthier after playing the Titans.

2. The Steeler recievers are better than the Ravens secondary. Ed Reed is amazing, but the Baltimore corners are suspect in coverage. It is always about how well the Steelers pass against Baltimore.

3. Flacco is a rookie and has not played well in the playoffs. He's avoided the turnovers so far, but he's only completed 44% of his passes. I think the Steelers defense can force Flacco into one or two turnovers. In a championship game, I'll go with the QB that has been there and done won it (and lost it too...).

Prognostication:

Steelers over Ravens: 24-13

Cardinals over Eagles: 30-24

OK..I haven't posted in a while

2009-01-06T23:10:00.003-05:00

So to catch up - here goes:

1. Right on the Steelers beating Baltimore...but way off in how it would play out. 10-4.

2. Right on the loss to the Titans. 11-4.

3. Right on the victory against the hapless Browns. 12-4.

A few people thought I was crazy to pick the Steelers going 11-5 this year with the tough schedule, but that was even conservative. A 12-4 season HAS to be considered an huge accomplishment for the Tomlin and the Steelers.

Looking to the Chargers:

If the Steelers offense can get going, and I said "IF", then this should be a 10 point victory. If not, then look for a 2-6 point game.

Steelers on Offense

1. The I-formation. Willie likes it. I like it. They HAVE to get the running game going. The Steelers need to run for 90+ yards to make SD respect the line of scrimmage. They will double team Williams on the inside with Hartwig/Colon or Hartwig/Stapleton. This is why a FB in the hole is most valuable. He can pick up someone in the gap and turn a 0 yard run into a 3 yd gain. Gotta run with a FB 75% of the run plays.

2. The Chargers secondary has struggled this year and is at the bottom of the league in pass yardage. I do not think they can stop Ward/Holmes/Miller/Washington consistently. Pass pro is key, and hopefully the RB's are successful in blitz pickup. Give Ben 3 seconds, and they will be fine.

3. Close out. Score TDs instead of FGs. Russell is an asset on the goal line, and I expect to see him used there instead of Parker and Moore.

Steelers on Defense

1. Pressure Rivers. Kind of obvious...but Woodley needs to establish pressure early to take some attention from Harrison. Timmons could be key in 3rd down pass rush scenarios. The coverage units will play as big a role in sacks as the pass rushers.

2. Beat up Sproles. He HAS to be tired and sore from last week. Adrenaline will kick in in the opening of the game, but by the 2nd quarter that will be gone. The defense needs to hit him hard. Sproles has a stout heart and is elusive, so it will not be easy. They also need to funnel Sproles to the middle of the field. The Steelers cannot afford to have him take the edge.

3. No big draws or screens. The Steelers have been burned by some big draws and screens. They need to pursue properly and take the right angles.

AFC Playoff Prognostication:

Steelers vs. Chargers: 17-10 Steelers

Titans vs Ravens: 23-20 Titans in OT

9-4 - and the Ravens!

2008-12-14T13:02:00.003-05:00

STH goes 9-4 on the season prognostication. Let's look at the Ravens match up:

Most people are picking a low scoring game of attrition. While this will be a violent game, it will have plenty of offense.

When the Steelers are on O

1. You don't run on the Ravens, unless you are the Giants. The Steelers typically do not run well against the Ravens. Parker has been stymied by the Ravens. The Steelers running game will average 3.0-3.4 yards per carry for 18-24 carries. They just need to keep the Ravens honest on D. If they get just one big play in the run game, that will be a bonus.

2. The Steelers typically pass well against the Ravens, when Ben is not getting his clock cleaned. Protection is huge in this game, but not throwing INTs is even bigger. The Steelers WRs and TEs can work against the suspect Ravens secondary (Reed excluded). Homes and Ward should have good games against the starting corners. Washington should have a good game working against the nickle corner. The Steelers need to hang points on this D early, and make Flacco come from behind. Look for Holmes and Washington deep in the 1st half. After getting a lead, the Steelers need to dink and dunk with some runs mixed in to bleed the clock and keep the D fresh. If the Steelers surrender 2 sacks or less, then they'll blow this game open.

When the Steelers are on D

1. McLain is the most dangerous back on the Ravens vs the Steelers. Rice is out, and McGahee is OK. The Steelers typically shut down power running games, and they need to against the Ravens. They need to make the Ravens O one dimensional. If the Steelers can keep the number of Ravens runs to under 25, they stand a good chance of winning. If the Ravens get over 25 carries, that means they are controlling the ball and tiring the Steeler D.

2. Flacco is a very good rookie, and the Steelers cannot afford to think he'll play like one (or like Romo). He plays very well with Mason, and that will be the challenge for the Steelers. In 3rd and 6-10, Mason will be the #1 option. The Steelers need to shut him down on 3rd to force the punt. If the Steelers can get 4 or more sacks, then they will stymie the Ravens D and create key turnovers. If they can't pressure Flacco, he'll make some plays. Look for a new offensive wrinkle from Cam Cameron this game.

Wrap-up

This game comes down to who passes the best. I'll go with Ben and the Steelers receivers over Flacco and the Ravens receivers. Look for big plays in the first half, and look for Flacco to turn the ball over in the second half as he tries to play catch-up.

In the preseason prognostication I said this:

It seems the Ravens are therapeutic for the Steelers. I think Flacco will be starting by this time in the season, and they abuse the rookie. Steelers 34-10 with a 10-4 record.

The Ravens are better than expected at this point. I still think the Steelers win this going away: 27-13 Steelers.

STH happily is 8-4

2008-12-03T09:05:00.003-05:00

Woo hoo!! Big, dominating win over the Patsies. Gotta love it!

Looking forward to the Cowboys at Heinz Field:

Steelers with the ball

The Dallas 3-4 is an interesting thing. The DL is not very big, especially at the NT position. Ratliff is 6-4, 305. This is a stark contrast to guys like Hampton, Wilfork, Jenkins, Shaun Rogers, Jamal Williams...you get it...BIG NTs in the AFC. All of these guys are 330+. The interior OL should feel like it is getting a break this week.

The Steelers offense will need to take advantage of a couple of things: a smaller middle of the defense, average ILBs and a weak secondary.

The running game should be effective up the middle and between the G/T gap. I think Hartwig and Kemo can get plenty of push straight off of the ball to be effective. Also, pulling the opposite G into the G/T gap should create numbers, assuming the pulling side T can get a good backside seal. Colon and Starks are good run blockers, so this plays to the Steelers pretty well.

Although the Cowboys get Pacman back for this game, I think the Dallas secondary is challenged. Newman has shown that he can have a bad game. Henry is nothing special. Pacman does help when the Steelers go the 3WR set, as Washington will not be able to abuse the nickel corner. The Dallas safeties are nothing special, even when "Roy Weeams" was not injured. The Dallas ILBs are average in coverage. The combination of Ward, Holmes, Miller, Washington, Spaeth and Moore should present plenty of opportunities in the passing game, assuming Ben has protection.

Ware has the lion's share of sacks for the Cowboys, so Parker, Moore and Davis will need to help Starks with the chip. The rest of the sacks are sprinkled pretty evenly among the other Dallas D players. The OL has to keep Ratliff from applying pressure up the middle, and has to pick up the blitz.

If the OL can run block like they did against the Pats, and can provide 3-4 seconds for Ben to throw, then the Steelers O should put up 24-28 points.

Dallas with the ball

Romo is a good QB. However, he has also shown the ability for the real bone-headed play. With the Dallas running game completely shut down, Dallas will have to pass to move the ball. They have the weapons in T.O., Roy Williams, Crayton and Witten.

Dallas will try to run in the 1st half, with little results. Even if Barber is healthy, he would not be effective. This D is geared to stopping power backs. No dice for Dallas.

When passing, I think the Steelers D has the advantage. Tomlin's influence has created better coverage in Lebeau's defense. With the addition of Timmons in the nickel, the middle of the defense has a LOT more speed to negate guys like Witten. Harrison will wreak his typical havoc against Adams. Woodley vs. Columbo goes to Woodley. With Polamalu going off and Clark playing solid, there is very little room to pass the ball, and very little time to read the defense. The one concern to watch is Romo's scrambling ablity, but that can't be a offensive game plan. Romo and T.O. will be frustrated by the 2nd quarter, and will make mistakes.

Look for Dallas to put up 10-14 points.

Pre-season progostication was Steelers 20-13. Sounds close, but I think the Steelers will put up more than 20.

Patriot Updates

2008-11-29T11:41:00.002-05:00

There are some late developments that will affect the game:

Steelers

1. Looks like Parker will suit up. Hopefully, he's effective with his bum knee.

2. Townsend will play. Hopefully his hammy holds up.

3. BMac will probably play. He's listed as questionable, but has practiced for two weeks. This game is too big for him to sit. He'll probably wear a protective device on his forearm, but look for him to be fine.

Patriots

1. Ty Warren's groin has kept him from practicing. If he plays...well...pulled groins are nasty to walk on, much less play NT.

2. Seymour has a bum knee. I think Seymour will play on the knee, and there should not be a big fall off.

3. Ellis Hobbs has a bum shoulder. For a CB, this is not too big a deal (not like a leg injury). He'll play and will be fine.

Go Steelers!!!

Updates...

2008-11-26T13:30:00.003-05:00

Since the last post, the Steelers have beaten both the Chargers and the Bengals. STH goes to 8-3 in the prognostication department, picking both wins over the Bengals and Chargers.

On to the Patriots:

Steelers' Offense:

1. Willie is out, and Marvel is still out.

2. Ben has played a lot better in the past two games.

What to look for:

1. Passing Game - The Patriots have a very good D-line, slow but experienced LBs and an average secondary. The Steelers need to play to this weakness. The Steelers need to abuse the LBs in coverage early with Miller, Spaeth, Davis and Moore. Look for a lot of underneath routes from the TE/RBs with WR deep routes to clear out the CBs and safeties. I think NE will play a lot of cover 2, and will force Ben to beat them on the road with good reads.

If the underneath stuff hurts NE enough, Bill will be forced to pull a SS/FS robber to make things more difficult in the short game. This is when a deep pass has to hurt the Pats with either a completion or a penalty. I like Nate Washington's chances for a big play this week.

2. Running Game - The running game needs to be unpredictable. Unfortunately, it usually is not. This is Arians' main problem. He can't deceive anyone with his play calling. There are two options: pull Kemo right, or run left. That is all Arians calls. Hopefully, he makes some good calls mixing up the inside/outside runs. The running game does not need to go hog wild. If it produces 100 yards, that is just gravy. A 80-90 yard effort will be enough balance for a win.

Steelers' Defense

1. Keisel is out.

2. Townsend is out.

3. BMac is questionable.

1. Pass D - this will be the most important phase of the game. NE traditionally puts in Moss/Welker/Gaffney and spreads the defense. This makes the Steelers come out of the 3-4 into a nickel alignment. The Steelers have run a 2 DL, 4 LB and 5 DB formation as a nickel D. Usually, this involved Keisel and Smith at the DL positions. Without Keisel, look for a rotation of Eason, Roye, Kirchke and Hoke.

Timmons must be used in pass D. Foote needs to spell Timmons, and not cover. If Welker is in the slot, I'd put Timmons on him and jam him at the line of scrimmage. Welker is a tough guy, but is (relatively) small. I think he can beat a jam from Gay or Bryant, so putting Timmons on him takes advantage of his biggest weakness. Taylor will obviously cover Moss with help over the top from Clark. If the Steelers can take away Moss and Welker, they can win this game...big task though!! Let's see what Lebeau comes up with.

The Pats will game plan to minimize sacks against this D. Look for a lot of 3-5 step drops from Cassel, with quick releases to minimize pressure. Look for a lot of screens, with some in the middle. This is why negating Welker is so important. If the Steelers can delay the release with good coverage, they have a better chance of getting to Cassel. If the Steelers get 3 sacks, that is a good sign that the coverage is working.

2. Run Defense - The Steelers will need to stop the run primarily from a nickel formation. The Patriots will rarely line up and challenge the best run D in the league head on. They are too smart for that. They will spread the defense and look for creases. Look for a lot of draws and delays if the DL does not control the middle of the pocket. Look for Cassel to gain yards on scrambles if the DL does not control the middle of the pocket.

Summary:

This is a tough game schematically for the Steelers. Belichick knows how to attack the base 3-4, and has the weapons to do damage in a 3-4 WR set. The offense will need to put up more than 24 points to win, and I think they will struggle with that.

Pre-season Pick: Pats 27-20.

Pick: Sadly, I pick the Patriots 24-21 over the Steelers.

Hope I'm wrong!! =)

I've been off a few weeks...

2008-11-13T08:57:00.002-05:00

Due to work travel, I've been negligent in posting. Time to catch up.

STH goes 6-3 on the season picking Steelers games. STH hit on the Redskins game, but missed on the Colts game.

The Colts game made me sick...'nuff said. Definitely a chance for the Steelers to separate from the pack, but now they are in the muddled 6-3 group.

Looking forward to San Diego, here are the keys to the game:

Steelers O:

1. The interior of the line needs to neutralize Jamal Williams. They do not need to push him off point, but they need to make sure he is not getting penetration or sliding down the line. This is up to Hartwig, Kemo and Stapleton. Kemo struggled a bit against the smaller and quicker Colts D line. Hopefully, he can get a piece of Williams when needed.

2. When running, use a FB/TE and get numbers at the point of attack. Against a 3-4 defense, the best place to run (generally) is against the OLB/DE bubble. Stretch and counter plays work well for this. A FB can pick up an ILB, and a pulling guard/center can pick off an OLB. If the Steelers can get a RB on a safety, then there are a lot of opportunities for big plays in the running game.

3. Get a deep hit early. By deep, I mean 30+ yards. The Chargers D has struggled this year, and you want to get them thinking negative early. This opens up the running game and the underneath routes. This is important for those blitz adjustments.

Offense Summary: The Steelers need to pull the San Diego D back, and then establish the run. This will open up the play action passing game, and also the underneath routes. I think the Steelers have the edge over the SD defense, especially in 3WR sets. The Steelers need to be physical when running out of 2TE and I-based sets.

Steelers D:

1. Ike Taylor needs to shadow Malcolm Floyd. Floyd is a huge mismatch against the other corners. Gates needs to draw coverage from Woodley, Timmons or Polamalu, depending on which side of the D is weak or strong. Foote and Farrior have no business covering Gates, as they will be abused. They do not have the speed. Harrison and/or Timmons and/or Woodley should rush the passer on every pass down. They need to bring 5 on pass rush every time, so look for the Steelers to play a lot of Cover 1.

2. Pressure Rivers. They have to bring 5 on pass rush to help out Gay and Fernando Bryant. Those two should be playing a lot of zone on the outside or slot.

3. How to handle LT? The Steelers D should be able to shut down the run, and SD has struggled running the ball so far. In the passing game, is it incumbent to Timmons or Polamalu to hold LT in check on the underneath routes. Timmons and Polamalu will play huge roles in the passing game with LT and Gates. Farrior should be allowed to roam the short/intermediate middle zone for clean up.

Defense Summary: Pressure the passer with 5 and aggressively take away his best two options: Gates and Floyd. The pressure will force LT to either pass block or run short routes. Then it becomes necessary to limit RAC yards and tackle well.

Pick: I think Ben bounces back with a good performance, and the D stifles the Chargers. Steelers 34-17.

AFC North Watch: The Steelers can get a two game lead on the Ravens by winning this week after watching the Giants beat the Ravens. The other two teams don't matter.

Giants re-cap and Redskins preview

2008-10-29T09:10:00.006-04:00

STH goes 5-2 on the year with the Steeler's loss to the G-men. No shame in losing to the Giants, but I think the Steelers should have won that game. Reasons the Steelers lost:

1. Penalties - especially on the drive that got to the Giants 35...then went backwards to the Steelers 35. On this drive, the Steelers lost a TD at worst, and 3 points at best.

2. Poor play from Ben. I hate to say it, but at least two of the sacks were a result of Ben holding the ball way too long. Eli got rid of the ball...Ben ate it.

3. Poor execution in the 4Q. No first downs...no points...no nothing.

The Steelers did not lose because of the bad snap. That play was pretty insignificant, except for highlight reels.

Keys to the Redskins game:

Offense

1. Pass more like the Steelers do against the Ravens. The Redskins have the 5th ranked rushing defense. This does not mean the Steelers should abandon the run, but passing will be easier than running. The Redskins have the 11th ranked pass defense, but they will be missing two starters from the secondary. Also, the Redskins only have 10 sacks this year, so Ben should be less pressured than against the Giants.

2. Run outside. Fletcher is a good MLB, so getting to the edges with either Parker or Moore should create opportunities for big chunks of yards. Up the middle is not a good game plan.

Defense

1. Shut down Clinton Portis. If the Steelers can hold Portis to less than 70 yards, then the Steelers should win.

2. Abuse the LT Heyer. I like Silverback against Heyer or a RB. If the Steelers DL can slant to get Keisel on Heyer or the LG, then Harrison should pop free a lot. The Redskins are giving up an average of 2 sacks per game. Silverback will get at least 2.

3. Woodley should get 1 sack.

4. The pressure should make Campbell force to ball or fumble the ball. Campbell has been really good this year with ball security. This is a result of a good running game and good decisions. However, the Steelers D can take away both, and I do not see the Redskins winning the one-on-one matchups.

The preseason pick had this as a trap game after a big win over the Giants. However...AHEM...that is not necessarily the case now. So, I think the Steelers come out and get a win. Steelers 17-10.

2009 Free Agents

2008-10-28T13:17:00.004-04:00

OK...so it is a little early to start looking at free agency, but it is a fun diversion after a loss. Looking forward to players that would do the Steelers a lot of good:

1. Chris Snee - RG, NYG Signing Snee would let the Steelers part ways with Simmons, who has been pretty mediocre lately. Immediate upgrade in run and interior pass blocking. This would also limit any downside from Simmons not recovering well from his achilles injury. If Kemoeatu re-signs, then the guard position is a definite strength.

2. Dunta Robinson - CB, Texans. If the Steelers can re-sign McFadden and get Robinson, then they will have a great nickel package. This gives the Steelers depth and experience at CB.

3. A kick returner - ANY kick returner

Giants!!

2008-10-22T11:02:00.003-04:00

Will the Steelers beat the Giants? Could...but the offense really needs to game plan for the pass rush.

Keys to Victory:

Offense

1. Run the ball, especially on second down. The Patriots were a pass happy team, and look where that got them. The Steelers O needs to punish the Giants D to slow down the pass rush.

2. Be unpredictable on 1st down. Runs, passes, screens...1st down needs to get about 4-6 yards to make second down a good running down.

3. Have a good plan to beat the blitz. This is where getting whupped by the Eagles D pays dividends. If the Steelers can limit the Giants to 2 sacks, they have a good chance to win.

4. Score at least 21 points. I think if the Steelers put up 21, they win.

Defense

1. Stuff Jacobs, and eliminate the cutbacks for the smaller and quicker RBs. This will make the Giants O one dimensional. The D needs to penetrate against Jacobs, and play Bradshaw like they played the Jags.

2. Rattle Eli. I think the Steeler LB'ers will do a good job of making Eli move and dance.

3. Catch the ball. Eli will provide opportunities for INTs and forced fumbles. The Steelers need to capitalize and get the turnovers when they are there.

4. Shut down Plax in the red zone. This will force FGs rather than TDs.

Prediction: 24-20 Steelers...but this will be a hard game...

Last Week's Review

Last week, STH went to 4-2 on the season picking games. Also, the sack prediction was pretty close. Good game for the Steelers against the Bungles...but what is new?

The Steelers took a bye, and so did I

2008-10-17T21:48:00.002-04:00

But I'm back...

What a win over Jax!! Everything clicked as the offensive game plan used:

1. Quick, short passes effectively

2. Runs out of 3 and 4 WR sets

3. The RB on circle and flare routes

The D game plan shut down the running game and created pressure on 3rd and longs. The only downer was the number of converted 3rd and longs...need to get that fixed.

STH falls to 3-2 on the season, but I'm glad the Steelers won. I'll take that every week if I can. =) Note that STH has accurately predicted the record to this point, but missed on which game was a loss.

Looking forward to the Bungles:

1. The Bengals have had issues in pass protection this year. Expect a thorough ravishing of Fitzpatrick by Harrison and Woodley. I think Timmons will pick up another sack this week also. Pre-game prediction: 5 sacks.

2. The Bengals have no running game. This puts a lot of pressure on the QB. Oooops...

3. The Steelers should be able to run the ball easily, and pass even easier. Look for a big day from Holmes. I think he'll have 5+ catches for over 100 yds and 2TDs.

Pre-season pick was 27-17 Steelers. However, I think this will be a little more of a route. 31-6...or something like that.

Oh yeah...

2008-10-05T20:22:00.001-04:00

STH is 3-1 on the season.

Go Steelers!

Ravens Review and Jags Pre-game

2008-10-04T18:42:00.003-04:00

A Win is a Win

The Ravens played a tough game on defense. Thankfully, Flacco was limiting the play calling of the Ravens, who played it close to the vest. The Baltimore tackles and RBs struggles against Harrison and Woodley, which PGH had hoped would happen. Losing Mendenhall and Davis hurts, but it also let Moore show what he can do. I think as the season wears on, this is a good thing. This will let Ben gain trust in a check down option, which will be important in countering the pass rush.

The Jags are another physical team, but a bit less so after losing Stroud to Buffalo. The Jags pass rush is not producing as much as hoped. The offense still relies on running the ball with an occasional play from Garrard.

The short week shouldn't matter much as far as game planning goes. The Steelers know the Jags, and visa versa. I hope the Steelers get a lot of rest this week.

Steeler's offense:

1. Needs to keep the Jag's D off balance with short, efficient passes on 1st and 2nd down.

2. When they run, the oline has to let the FB get to a LB'er. If the O-line can win one-on-one battles, the running game will be effective. Not dominating, but effective enough to make the Jags think about it. Getting 3-4 yards per carry is probably all we can expect without Parker or Mendenhall.

3. Need to victimize the short-handed Jax secondary. Maybe test it early by going deep if they get a 2nd and short.

4. Keep the inside pressure down when passing. This is one of the things that killed the Steelers last year.

5. Need to jump out to an early lead. The Jax offense is not a big play threat, except for MJD. Get a lead early and minimize the Jax running game, and let Silverback/Woodley wreak havoc.

Key match-ups: Hartings/Stapelton/Kemo vs the DTs.

Steeler's defense:

1. Taylor loves to cut back, so no over-pursuit. The D-line and LB'ers need to "string-out" outside runs by Taylor rather than penetrate.

2. Polamalu should serve as the disruptive penetrator in run D.

3. Hit Garrard hard early. He has not been as mistake free with the ball as he was in 2007. He will probably offer up a pick or two - that's for you Ike.

Key match-ups: Barnes/Pashos vs. Silverback/Woodley

Wrap-up

This will be a very difficult game to win for the Steelers. Jax plays very physical, and it looks like the OGs have adjusted from being second string to starting. When they were both in the AFC Central, Jax gave the Steelers fits.

The pre-season pick was 28-20 Jags. It might be a bit loser (24-20), but I still think the Jags win. However, I'd love it if the Steelers were able to pull one out.

Week Three Ouchie

2008-09-23T17:46:00.003-04:00

Ow...that one stung. The Steelers O got dominated, but at least the D played well. When the D gives up only 13 points, the Steelers should win. The Offense has to score at least two touchdowns. Oh well...

STH is now 2-1.

Baltimore Game Keys:

Steelers O: The Steelers O needs to counter the blitz early in the game. Obviously, the Ravens are going to throw every blitz in the package at the Steelers O. Make them pay. Hot reads, moving the pocket, RB flares and short TE patterns should be called in the first quarter. Hopefully, Ben can audible out of them if they look bad at the line of scrimmage. As far as running the ball, the Steelers will not have Willie Parker. Parker has struggled against the Ravens who hasn't?), so we'll get to see what Mendenhall has. Mendenhall posting positive yards is key to keeping the Ravens D honest.

Key Matchup: Suggs vs Simmons/Colon (this could get ugly)

Steelers D: Confuse Flacco. This should lead to turnovers and short fields for the offense. Unfortunately, until the O gets confident again, the D will need to carry this team. The deep passing game should not be a huge concern. Cover 1 should be OK for most of the game as long as pressure gets to Flacco. I think Polamalu will have a monster game. The Ravens O does not really scare me. As long as there is no 3-man rush, they'll get pressure. Hoke will do fine in Hampton's absence.

Key Matchup: Tackles vs OLB (Hopefully, this gets ugly)

Pre-season Prediction: 34-7 Steelers. Flacco has exceeded expecations, but the Steelers still win...Steelers 16-10.

Steelers beat Brownies

2008-09-16T21:21:00.002-04:00

I live in NE Ohio...and the silence is deafening. The loudmouthed, ignorant Browns fans have been stifled and shut up. Ahhhh...peace at last.

STH is 2-0 on the season. However, the 10-6 score was way off my prediction mark. Think the weather had anything to do with it? =) On to the Eagles:

1. The Steelers have stymied McNabb before. Pressure and keeping contain on McNabb will be critical to disrupting the Eagles passing offense.

2. Westbrook is dangerous. His ability our of the backfield and his cut-back running can hurt hte Steelers. Cut back, slashing type runners can give the Steelers problems if they do not maintain "gap integrity". Discipline is key to containing Westbrook. If the Steelers play the nickel, Timmons will get more time. This bodes well for countering Westbrooks speed and quickness.

3. The coverage teams need to contain the rookie, DeSean Jackson. So far, they have contained a couple of the best return men in Andre Davis and Josh Cribbs. They certainly do not get a break this week. Jackson is not that big (~170 lbs.), so maybe they can rock him and get him off of the offensive side of the ball.

4. The Steelers need to have a physical running game against the undersized Eagles front 7. I hope we see a good dose of Mendenhall to complement Parker. Well timed play action pass plays, screens and misdirection plays will be key to keeping the aggressive, blitzing Eagles D off balance.

My original pick was 24-10 Steelers...and I'll stick with it. It is a crap shoot anyway...

Week 1 Wrap-up and Week 2 Predictions

2008-09-09T09:49:00.002-04:00

Well...the Texans were the Texans. I had it 31-17, so I was pretty close.

1-0 so far for game picks.

Looking forward to the Browns, here is what will happen:

1. Look for a lot of pressure from Harrison and Woodley again. Harrison will only have 1 sack, because Thomas is a good LT. Woodley will go off though with 2 sacks and a lot of pressures.

2. Ben will pass for over 300 yards. The Cleveland secondary is pitiful, and so is the pass rush. This leaves the secondary is a bad position, and Ben will expose it.

3. Score - I still think 27-24 is plausible. But after the week 1 showings, I'm more inclined to have the Steelers win by 10+.

Prognostication

2008-08-21T13:52:00.002-04:00

It is almost time to start the regular season, so I'll look at the schedule and make guesses about how the Steelers will finish. Here we go:

Houston at Heinz Field

The defense dominates and the offense moves the ball well. I think Mario might cause some problems, unless the OL really steps up. Steelers 31-17.

1-0

Cleveland away

This will be a tough game as the Brownies will be jacked up for a nationally televised game. Ben still beats them because the Brown's secondary stinks. Steelers 27-24

2-0

Battle of PA away

McNabb will struggle as the Steelers pass D excels, especially Timmons. Steelers 24-10

3-0

Baltimore at Heinz Field

No offense. An aging defense...no competition again. Steelers 34-7

4-0

At Jax

Hmmm...this one scares me. I think this is the first loss of the season. Jax seems to have the Steelers number. Jaguars 28-20

4-1

Bye week...

At Cinci

The Bengals offense will b OK, but the D is horrific. The Steelers will be dominant in this game. Steelers 27-17, but not as close as the score.

5-1

Giants at Heinz Field

The Giants D-line will get to Ben, but he will make enough plays to win this one. One thing to watch - the return of Plax. Steelers 21-13

6-1

At Washington

This feels like a trap game, and it becomes one. The Steelers should win this one, but they fall short in D.C. Skins 19-17

6-2

Colts at Heinz Field

The Colts certainly can't write off the Steelers, as they did in the 2005 playoffs. The Steelers win a close one at home and punish Manning. Steelers 28-27

7-2

Chargers at Heinz Field

The Chargers have two players that play to the Steelers' weakness - LT and Gates. The Chargers beat the Steelers. Chargers 30-17.

7-3

Bengals at Heinz Field

Time to get healthy after the SD beating. Steelers 37-14.

8-3

At The Razor

NE sucks, but they are so good. The Steelers fall short. 27-20.

8-4

Cowboys at Heinz Field

I think that the D will get to Romo and force mistakes. The Steelers steal one at home. Steelers 20-13.

9-4

At Baltimore

It seems the Ravens are therapeutic for the Steelers. I think Flacco will be starting by this time in the season, and they abuse the rookie. Steelers 34-10.

10-4

At Tennessee

The Steelers struggle against the former Oilers. The Titans play them close and pull one out at home. Titans 24-21.

10-5

Cleveland visits Heinz Field

Hopefully, this game still matters. I'd hate to listen to the Browns fans chirping about beating the Steelers' scrubs. Steelers 24-17.

11-5

And that kids - puts them in the playoffs. I don't think they'll get a first round bye, but that is probably a good thing. That will keep them sharp.

7 Days To Camp

2008-07-20T18:14:00.002-04:00

Only 7 more days and the Steelers start camp. Here are the camp battles that will affect the team's roster going forward:

CB opposite Ike

Bryant McFadden is looking to become the starter this year. He'll have to bump Deshea Townsend to the nickel back if he wants to do that. McFadden had two bum ankles last year, and that slowed his development. Maybe this is the year for him?

Center

OK - Mahan was miserable at center last year. I think Hartwig should be an upgrade, but he still needs to win the spot. The interior of the OL was bad last year, and Hartwig winning the spot could help it become stable (probably not stellar though).

Offensive Guard

With Faneca leaving, there seem to be two bodies competing for the LG spot - Kemoeatu and Colon. Colon's short arms seem to make him more suited to guard, and he gave up a lot of sacks at RT last year. The RG position is not so certain either. Simmons did not play very well last year. Maybe it was his diabetes? Dunno...but whoever does not win the LG battle might just start at RG.

MLB

Don't look now Foote, but Timmons is slated to play in the middle. This should be an interesting battle between the savvy vet and a talented young player. I think both will get some playing time, but who wins the starting spot is a curious thing.

3rd WR

Nate Washington has turned into a serviceable 3rd WR. Not stellar, but he seems to have reduced his drops. Having Sweed compete for time with Nate will improve both of the WRs. The 4WR sets should be quite dangerous this year.

My prediction - BMac starts, The OL is Smith-Colon-Hartwig-Kemo-Starks, Foote starts and Timmons plays mostly passing downs, and Sweed is the 3rd WR.

Go Steelers!

2008-04-27T15:57:00.002-04:00

Draft Results

Offense:

I think getting Mahan out of center was the biggest thing that could help the OL. Hartwig will help immensely. Given the Hartwig addition, the primary offensive needs entering the draft were (in no particular order):

1. RB depth - the running game stopped after losing FWP

2. WR depth - Ward, Holmes, Washington...and...and...oh...no one.

3. OL depth

The Steelers got all of these covered with Mendenhall, Sweed and Hills. Hills may project to guard, but he looks be a good tackle in the future. It is amazing that Sweed lasted until the Steeler's second round pick.

Offensive draft grade: A

Defense

Booger came into the Steelers and could not pass a physical. Other than some ST players, the D has not had any FA activity. So, the pre-draft needs are (in order):

1. DL depth - when Smith went down, the run D suffered. we need a young body who can play the 3-4 DE position if Keisel or Smith gets injured

2. CB depth - someone who can start in a few years when Townsend finally retires or moves to safety

3. MLB - Farrior is aging and Foote is decent, but not stellar.

Some people clamor about safety, but I think the FS position will be fine.

The LB position was the defensive position to get addressed most, partially because the best 3-4 DE in each round was gone before the Steelers picked. Davis (UCLA) will most likely play outside as a pass rusher, so maybe Harrison is moving inside eventually? Humpal is a ST pick, and ILB back-up. Mundy is a safety backup and ST contributor.

The best D in the league last year got no help on the DL in depth. Maybe Booger gets healthy and they sign him. That will help.

Defensive Draft Grade: C+

Overall grade: B+

OL starting line-up: Smith - Kemo - Hartwig - Colon - Starks

LB starting line-up: Woodly - Foote - Farrior - Harrison

Draft and OL

2008-02-18T12:10:00.002-05:00

Given that Fancea is leaving and Max Starks is most likely leaving, here's where I'd like to see the draft go for the Steelers:

Rnd 1 - OT

The Steelers should be able to get either Jeff OTah, Chris Williams or Gosder Cherilius

Rnd 2 - Center

I really like Mike Pollack here, as Mahan had problems at center in 2007. Pollack has the size (as opposed to Steve Justice) and speed to pull also. This would let Mahan compete for a guard position or be a backup at center and guard.

Rnd 3 - RB

Depends who falls. If Matt Forte is available, he'd be a good compliment to FWP. Mike Hart would be a good choice too...

Rnd 4 - Paul Hubbard. At 6-4 and 215 he is a big target for Ben. Runs a decent 4.43 40 too.

Who knows after this...maybe a backup OLB/ILB that can help on ST. The Steelers definitely need a return specialist, so maybe a fast sub-4.40 CB will be taken.

The DL will need help in 2009 draft...

Malcolm

2008-01-14T00:56:00.001-05:00

Malcolm Jenkins is staying at Ohio State for his senior year. He was projected to go in the top 10-15 players selected in the 2008 draft. This will change the draft boards, and it will be interesting to see where the team that need a shut down corner go...

Looking Forward

2008-01-13T00:57:00.000-05:00

Obviously, the Steelers have to improve in several areas to just remain competitive, much less win the AFC North again in 2008. There are two real "big picture" type things that needs to be addressed:

1. Offensive identity - who are the Steelers on offense? A power running team? A finesse offense? Or some where in between? Without a FB like Krieder, it really becomes hard to over-power opposing defenses in the hole.
2. As a corollary to #1, how will the OL look?

Offensive Identity
If the Steelers can get a good slot reciever/KR guy, they can really open up this offense. A 3WR formation with Miller and FWP really makes defenses pick their poison. Do you go nickle to stop the pass, or do you stay in the base-D to play FWP and hope you can stop the pass?

A good slot reciever will take a lot of coverage from Ward and Holmes. Maybe they draft a big WR to play the X or Z and put Ward in the Y on 3 WR sets? Maybe Nate Washington develops enough to be reliable and dangerous, instead of just dangerous. Whatever happens, I think Steeler fans will say good bye to the "power offense" in which Bettis excelled.

Of course, Tomlin added a couple REALLY big OL-men to the roster at the end of the season, so maybe he's going big, and I'm totally off base.

OL
The o-line has more than a few departures in FA this year. The big and obvious one is Faneca, but Starks could hurt too. I think the Steelers would do good if they re-signed Starks. I love Faneca, but he will begine to decline in a few years. The line could look like this: Smith - TBD - Simmons - Colon -Starks. The LG position could be decided in camp between Chris Kemoeatu, a FA or a draft selection. Mahan has to be pulled from the center position, as he gets dominated and the play, run or pass, gets blown up. The 1st and 2nd draft picks should be OL selections. There are no centers in the draft generally projectd earlier than the 3 round, so the picks will be OT/OG. BTW, some folks are fond of suggesting Starks at OG. He's WAAAY to tall to play guard. He'll fill all of the throwing lanes...

The draft will really tell which direction this team is going. I think Tomlin has a long term plan, and we'll begin to see it after the draft.

Random Thoughts...
Timmons. Interesting dude...and not because he knocked Ricky out of the Miami mud wretling match. He is built like a prototypical Cover-2 MLB (see Derrick Brooks). He's not big for a MLB (see Levon Kirkland), and has a lot of speed. With Woodley taking over Haggan's spot, where does Timmons go in a base 3-4? If he takes either Foote's of Farrior's spot, then I think we'll see Timmons lining up man over the opposing TE in passing plays, as he has the speed to cover them. This will free up Polamalu to range in the robber role. Or, he can be used as the MLB is used in a Tampa-2 - playing deep middle - and doing it out of a base 3-4. Hopefully, Timmons does not get lost in the trash during the running game and can help stop the run. You can count on him seeing a lot of time in 2008 in the nickle and dime packages, too. He seems to have a good nose for the ball. Hope he stays healthy!

More Random Thoughts on LBs
I think a Woodley - Farrior - Timmons - Harrison LB corp is quite formidable and full of play makers! Also helps the secondary when the QB is running for his life...

Thoughts on DL
Hampton did not seem dominant inside this year. Perhaps he (gasp!) needs to trim down a bit. Smith is a stud, but will not last too many more years. Other than those two, we need help in quality and depth on DL. Hopefully, this is addressed in FA.

Next post - 2008 draft specifics - especially as juniors declare or stay in school.