Patriot Updates

There are some late developments that will affect the game:

Steelers

1.  Looks like Parker will suit up.  Hopefully, he's effective with his bum knee.

2.  Townsend will play.  Hopefully his hammy holds up.

3.  BMac will probably play.  He's listed as questionable, but has practiced for two weeks.  This game is too big for him to sit.  He'll probably wear a protective device on his forearm, but look for him to be fine.

Patriots

1.  Ty Warren's groin has kept him from practicing.  If he plays...well...pulled groins are nasty to walk on, much less play NT.

2.  Seymour has a bum knee.  I think Seymour will play on the knee, and there should not be a big fall off.

3.  Ellis Hobbs has a bum shoulder.  For a CB, this is not too big a deal (not like a leg injury).  He'll play and will be fine.

Go Steelers!!!

Updates...

Since the last post, the Steelers have beaten both the Chargers and the Bengals.  STH goes to 8-3 in the prognostication department, picking both wins over the Bengals and Chargers.

On to the Patriots:

Steelers' Offense:

1.  Willie is out, and Marvel is still out.

2.  Ben has played a lot better in the past two games.

What to look for:

1.  Passing Game - The Patriots have a very good D-line, slow but experienced LBs and an average secondary.  The Steelers need to play to this weakness.  The Steelers need to abuse the LBs in coverage early with Miller, Spaeth, Davis and Moore.  Look for a lot of underneath routes from the TE/RBs with WR deep routes to clear out the CBs and safeties.  I think NE will play a lot of cover 2, and will force Ben to beat them on the road with good reads.  

If the underneath stuff hurts NE enough, Bill will be forced to pull a SS/FS robber to make things more difficult in the short game.  This is when a deep pass has to hurt the Pats with either a completion or a penalty.  I like Nate Washington's chances for a big play this week.

2.  Running Game - The running game needs to be unpredictable.  Unfortunately, it usually is not.  This is Arians' main problem.  He can't deceive anyone with his play calling.  There are two options:  pull Kemo right, or run left.  That is all Arians calls.  Hopefully, he makes some good calls mixing up the inside/outside runs.  The running game does not need to go hog wild.  If it produces 100 yards, that is just gravy.  A 80-90 yard effort will be enough balance for a win.

Steelers' Defense

1.  Keisel is out.

2.  Townsend is out.

3.  BMac is questionable.

1.  Pass D - this will be the most important phase of the game.  NE traditionally puts in Moss/Welker/Gaffney and spreads the defense.  This makes the Steelers come out of the 3-4 into a nickel alignment.  The Steelers have run a 2 DL, 4 LB and 5 DB formation as a nickel D.  Usually, this involved Keisel and Smith at the DL positions.  Without Keisel, look for a rotation of Eason, Roye, Kirchke and Hoke.

Timmons must be used in pass D.  Foote needs to spell Timmons, and not cover.  If Welker is in the slot, I'd put Timmons on him and jam him at the line of scrimmage.  Welker is a tough guy, but is (relatively) small.  I think he can beat a jam from Gay or Bryant, so putting Timmons on him takes advantage of his biggest weakness.  Taylor will obviously cover Moss with help over the top from Clark.  If the Steelers can take away Moss and Welker, they can win this game...big task though!!  Let's see what Lebeau comes up with.

The Pats will game plan to minimize sacks against this D.  Look for a lot of 3-5 step drops from Cassel, with quick releases to minimize pressure.  Look for a lot of screens, with some in the middle.  This is why negating Welker is so important.  If the Steelers can delay the release with good coverage, they have a better chance of getting to Cassel.  If the Steelers get 3 sacks, that is a good sign that the coverage is working.

2.  Run Defense - The Steelers will need to stop the run primarily from a nickel formation.  The Patriots will rarely line up and challenge the best run D in the league head on.  They are too smart for that.  They will spread the defense and look for creases.  Look for a lot of draws and delays if the DL does not control the middle of the pocket.  Look for Cassel to gain yards on scrambles if the DL does not control the middle of the pocket.

Summary:

This is a tough game schematically for the Steelers.  Belichick knows how to attack the base 3-4, and has the weapons to do damage in a 3-4 WR set.  The offense will need to put up more than 24 points to win, and I think they will struggle with that.

Pre-season Pick:  Pats 27-20.

Pick:  Sadly, I pick the Patriots 24-21 over the Steelers.

Hope I'm wrong!!  =)

I've been off a few weeks...

Due to work travel, I've been negligent in posting.  Time to catch up.

STH goes 6-3 on the season picking Steelers games.  STH hit on the Redskins game, but missed on the Colts game.

The Colts game made me sick...'nuff said.  Definitely a chance for the Steelers to separate from the pack, but now they are in the muddled 6-3 group.

Looking forward to San Diego, here are the keys to the game:

Steelers O:

1.  The interior of the line needs to neutralize Jamal Williams.  They do not need to push him off point, but they need to make sure he is not getting penetration or sliding down the line.  This is up to Hartwig, Kemo and Stapleton.  Kemo struggled a bit against the smaller and quicker Colts D line.  Hopefully, he can get a piece of Williams when needed.

2.  When running, use a FB/TE and get numbers at the point of attack.  Against a 3-4 defense, the best place to run (generally) is against the OLB/DE bubble.  Stretch and counter plays work well for this.  A FB can pick up an ILB, and a pulling guard/center can pick off an OLB.  If the Steelers can get a RB on a safety, then there are a lot of opportunities for big plays in the running game.

3.  Get a deep hit early.  By deep, I mean 30+ yards.  The Chargers D has struggled this year, and you want to get them thinking negative early.  This opens up the running game and the underneath routes.  This is important for those blitz adjustments.

Offense Summary:  The Steelers need to pull the San Diego D back, and then establish the run.  This will open up the play action passing game, and also the underneath routes.  I think the Steelers have the edge over the SD defense, especially in 3WR sets.  The Steelers need to be physical when running out of 2TE and I-based sets.

Steelers D:

1.  Ike Taylor needs to shadow Malcolm Floyd.  Floyd is a huge mismatch against the other corners.  Gates needs to draw coverage from Woodley, Timmons or Polamalu, depending on which side of the D is weak or strong.  Foote and Farrior have no business covering Gates, as they will be abused.  They do not have the speed.  Harrison and/or Timmons and/or Woodley should rush the passer on every pass down.  They need to bring 5 on pass rush every time, so look for the Steelers to play a lot of Cover 1.

2.  Pressure Rivers.  They have to bring 5 on pass rush to help out Gay and Fernando Bryant.  Those two should be playing a lot of zone on the outside or slot.

3.  How to handle LT?  The Steelers D should be able to shut down the run, and SD has struggled running the ball so far.  In the passing game, is it incumbent to Timmons or Polamalu to hold LT in check on the underneath routes.  Timmons and Polamalu will play huge roles in the passing game with LT and Gates.  Farrior should be allowed to roam the short/intermediate middle zone for clean up.

Defense Summary:  Pressure the passer with 5 and aggressively take away his best two options:  Gates and Floyd.  The pressure will force LT to either pass block or run short routes.  Then it becomes necessary to limit RAC yards and tackle well.

Pick:  I think Ben bounces back with a good performance, and the D stifles the Chargers.  Steelers  34-17.

AFC North Watch:  The Steelers can get a two game lead on the Ravens by winning this week after watching the Giants beat the Ravens.  The other two teams don't matter.